5/13: Belmont; Hollywood (P4's)

Kasept · #1 05-13-2009, 07:55 AM

Not a great deal of time to comment on the weekend, except to say that multi-race wagering continues to demonstrate its' overwhelming perfection as the horseplayers' friend. Was floored Saturday night by discovery of Monmouth's .50 Pick 5 and the opening day bonanza that returned an incredible $3,400. The value here on a .50 base wager was stunning as three short-priced favorites, a 9-2 second choice Kelly Breen entry and $13 third choice winner brought back the wallet-stuffer. If these kinds of returns don't make a P4, P5 and even P6 player, I'm not sure what will... Hollywood and Belmont quads to attack today!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Cozy Lion 4-1 WON
Best Value: #1 (POE) Pynaformer 15-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Cherokee Speed 7-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Laureate Conductor 3-1 2nd

.10 SUPER SPOT PLAY: Key 5 1st/2nd with 1-3-4-9 (1x4x3x2 = 24 + 4x1x3x2 = 24 = 480 x .10 = $4.80)

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Vue de Chat 3-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Elena's Princess 7-2 5th
Best Value: #5 Wonderwho'sbest 15-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Acquired Cat 9-2 7th

8th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD)

Best Value: #1e Contessa entry 10-1 5th/9th
Most Likely: #7 Kristi With a K 9-5 WON
Next Best: #2 (POE) Quiet Harbor 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 Loxy Lady 6-1 3rd

9th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 Precious Pride 8-1 10th
Most Likely: #6 Corey's Coming 3-1 WON
Next Best: #10 For Love Alone 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #11 Bella Cherokee 6-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-9
7: 5-6-7-9
8: 1-2-7
9: 1-6-10

2x4x3x3 = $72 $1 P4 (5/5/7/4,6,9) Paid $1,490.50

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: Cal-bred ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1a (POE) Unzip Me 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #5 Thelma Rose 4-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Dancing Erin 3-1 7th
Super Add: #4 SCR

6th: Cal-bred MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Charlie and Chris 5-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Quick Vic 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Denizen 7-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Kaptain Kordough 3-1 2nd

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Mark S the Cooler 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 African Gray 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Del Conte 5-1 3rd

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 Sun Lightening 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 Mort Robbins 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Pediatrics 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Pierre's Favor 8-1 10th
High 5 Play: #1 You're No Good 20-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-5-8
6: 2-7
7: ALL
8: 5-9

3x2x5x2 = $60

Good luck!
Steve

swedejxn · #2 05-13-2009, 08:00 AM

putting this up even before steve add's his.... the 7th at hollywood looks really contentious... probably could make a case for all of these but the 6 horse... LUCKIEST MAN... (the longest M/L shot in the field) has to be better than the record shows... and at 15-1... I would not leave out of exotics...
good luck today...

Kasept · #3 05-13-2009, 01:10 PM

AQUEDUCT

Weather: MOSTLY SUNNY 55
Track: FAST
Turf: FIRM

6TH

1A Stone Turtle Early
10 Dukinfield Early
11 Victory March Early
12 Street Talk'n Man Early

7TH

1A Gattinara Early
10 Boss Tiffany Early

8TH

2B Forest Trail Early

9TH

4 Quiet Jet Early
9 Liberty Lace Early

SCUDSBROTHER · #4 05-13-2009, 02:02 PM

What the hell kind of action is that on the "Unzip Me" filly? That's crazy. She not only paddles with her front left, but does some other stuff too. That's a competitive late pick 4. Even this filly with the egg-beater action has a chance.

Kasept · #5 05-13-2009, 02:12 PM

HOLLYWOOD

7th

#1 Back At You
#3 Smokey Lonesome
#6 Luckiest Man

SCUDSBROTHER · #6 05-13-2009, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I really like Seattle Brew in the 6th and think he's got a good shot at a price. He had no shot last time with the ride and will improve getting back on the lawn.

He bleed, or get shot by a sniper? At least p4 still alive.

Rudeboyelvis · #7 05-13-2009, 03:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

HOLLYWOOD

7th

#1 Back At You
#3 Smokey Lonesome
#6 Luckiest Man

Santamonicacanyon moves up quite a bit in this race now, no? Best of the speed, great turf form

Kasept · #8 05-13-2009, 04:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Santamonicacanyon moves up quite a bit in this race now, no? Best of the speed, great turf form

I suppose. Race lost its' mojo now... I pushed the all button for the quad...

SCUDSBROTHER · #9 05-13-2009, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis

Santamonicacanyon moves up quite a bit in this race now, no? Best of the speed, great turf form

Somebody got a read on Del Conte? I thought that horse loved turf, but was awful in his comeback. Pretty much ran off too fast with another horse on the turf at Del Mar, but just kept going right to the wire. Point is that he might only be good if taken to the front. Tried to rate him off SMCNYN, and that didn't work(although that was a little bit of a slow start, and from the 10 post, that may have been enough for the horse to not be interested.) With fewer horses to bug him, Del Conte should lay 2nd to Canyon, but not sure you can rely on him leaving the Canyon alone on comfortable lead. Cooler for sure prefers turf. Had a real poor trip, and still got up. Those were horses like Egypt though.