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  #1  
Old 05-15-2009, 02:23 PM
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Default Early Preakness odds peak thru Susie Double
Early ($138k in pool) Susan-Preakness Double wagering:

#7 Casanova Move with:

01 Big Drama - 61.80 (4th)
02 Mine/Bird - 80.20 (6th)
03 Musket Man- 83.40 (7th)
04 Luv Gov - 613.00 (12th)
05 Friesan Fire - 51.40 (3rd)
06 Terrain - 259.40 (10th)
07 Papa Clem - 79.20 (5th)
08 Genl Qrtrs - 187.00 (8th)
09 Pioneer - 46.00 (2nd)
10 Flying Pri - 515.80 (11th)
11 Take/Points - 187.20 (9th)
12 Tone/Down - 721.00 (13th)
13 Rachel Alex - 16.00 (1st)
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  #2  
Old 05-15-2009, 02:30 PM
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I like Payton d'Oro with Papa Clem
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  #3  
Old 05-15-2009, 03:25 PM
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although it is all hypothetical at this point, doesn't this make RA about even money - 6:5 at best?



Has anyone seen early advanced wagering odds yet?
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Old 05-15-2009, 03:48 PM
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Payton D' Oro with Big Drama, Mine That Bird and Fresian Fire offers good value
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  #5  
Old 05-15-2009, 04:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robfla
although it is all hypothetical at this point, doesn't this make RA about even money - 6:5 at best?
When I convert those odds to a 16% takeout, I get these odds, which make Rachel 9-5:

Big Drama 7.6
Mine That Bird 9.9
Musket Man 10.3
Luv Gov 77.4
Friesen Fire 6.3
Terrain 32.6
Papa Clem 9.8
General Quarters 23.4
Pioneerof the Nile 5.6
Flying Private 65.1
Take the Points 23.5
Tone It Down 91.1
Rachel Alexandra 1.8


--Dunbar
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  #6  
Old 05-15-2009, 04:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
When I convert those odds to a 16% takeout, I get these odds, which make Rachel 9-5:

Big Drama 7.6
Mine That Bird 9.9
Musket Man 10.3
Luv Gov 77.4
Friesen Fire 6.3
Terrain 32.6
Papa Clem 9.8
General Quarters 23.4
Pioneerof the Nile 5.6
Flying Private 65.1
Take the Points 23.5
Tone It Down 91.1
Rachel Alexandra 1.8


--Dunbar


I understand your thinking, but IF Casanova Move goes off at ML 5:2 and pays 7.00, and the double is paying 16.00, would that mean the odds are about 6:5 at best
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Old 05-15-2009, 05:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by robfla
I understand your thinking, but IF Casanova Move goes off at ML 5:2 and pays 7.00, and the double is paying 16.00, would that mean the odds are about 6:5 at best
Right. I ignored Casanova Move's odds because I was only interested in the relative amounts of money bet on each Derby horse. I think using 5:2 for Casanova Move will give you too low an estimate for most of the Derby horses.

--Dunbar

Edit: I meant "for most of the Preakness horses". Also, I should have used 18%, not 16%, for the takeout.
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Last edited by Dunbar : 05-15-2009 at 11:58 PM.
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  #8  
Old 05-15-2009, 06:31 PM
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Can someone post the payoffs in the BES/Preakness Double with #2 Payton D' Oro? Thanks in advance.
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  #9  
Old 05-15-2009, 06:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bogey
Can someone post the payoffs in the BES/Preakness Double with #2 Payton D' Oro? Thanks in advance.




I dutched Cassanova and Payton D'oro with Rachel and Friesan Fire. skewed toward Rachel a little
Last edited by Bobby Fischer : 05-15-2009 at 06:54 PM.
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  #10  
Old 05-15-2009, 06:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike
Payton D' Oro with Big Drama, Mine That Bird and Fresian Fire offers good value

I'm in play for tomorrow.

I'll back this Double up with a tri key of Rachel Alexandra overBig Drama, Mine That Bird and Fresian Fire

Only other bet of the day is Arlington 10th, Sly Storm
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  #11  
Old 05-15-2009, 06:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike
I'm in play for tomorrow.

I'll back this Double up with a tri key of Rachel Alexandra overBig Drama, Mine That Bird and Fresian Fire

Only other bet of the day is Arlington 10th, Sly Storm
If i wasn't trying to play so conservative, i would have just used Friesan Fire in the double , and backed my double up with that pick4 using rachel as a single. I just don't know how much that p4 will pay , even with the guarantee.


big drama scares me a little with what i have going i might use something with him
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  #12  
Old 05-15-2009, 07:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunbar
When I convert those odds to a 16% takeout, I get these odds, which make Rachel 9-5:

Big Drama 7.6
Mine That Bird 9.9
Musket Man 10.3
Luv Gov 77.4
Friesen Fire 6.3
Terrain 32.6
Papa Clem 9.8
General Quarters 23.4
Pioneerof the Nile 5.6
Flying Private 65.1
Take the Points 23.5
Tone It Down 91.1
Rachel Alexandra 1.8


--Dunbar
D,

Did you send me these finals maybe?

Big Drama - 7.8
Mine That Bird - 11.7
Musket Man - 10.2
Luv Gov - 94
Friesan Fire - 6.7
Terrain - 37.4
Papa Clem - 12.5
General Quarters - 24.0
Pioneerof the Nile - 6.3
Flying Private - 99
Take The Points - 28.7
Tone It Down - 117
Rachel Alexandra - 1.1
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  #13  
Old 05-15-2009, 07:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer




I dutched Cassanova and Payton D'oro with Rachel and Friesan Fire. skewed toward Rachel a little
Thanks Bobby
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  #14  
Old 05-15-2009, 08:56 PM
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I would have to believe that when the casual players money gets in the pool Mine That Bird's odds will come down some.
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  #15  
Old 05-15-2009, 09:23 PM
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Smile Black Eyed Susan/Preakness Probs
Anyone have the probables for the double?

Thanx in advance
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  #16  
Old 05-15-2009, 10:21 PM
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odds as of Friday night (per DRF.com). I think RA only drifts up from here.


PREAKNESS EARLY BETTING

1. Big Drama - 9-1

2. Mine That Bird - 7-1

3. Musket Man - 18-1

4. Luv Gov - 25-1

5. Friesan Fire - 8-1

6. Terrain - 25-1

7. Papa Clem - 14-1

8. General Quarters - 17-1

9. Pioneerof the Nile - 7-1

10. Flying Private - 25-1

11. Take the Points - 14-1

12. Tone It Down - 19-1

13. Rachel Alexandra - 3-2
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  #17  
Old 05-15-2009, 11:43 PM
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  #18  
Old 05-15-2009, 11:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kasept
D,

Did you send me these finals maybe?

Big Drama - 7.8
Mine That Bird - 11.7
Musket Man - 10.2
Luv Gov - 94
Friesan Fire - 6.7
Terrain - 37.4
Papa Clem - 12.5
General Quarters - 24.0
Pioneerof the Nile - 6.3
Flying Private - 99
Take The Points - 28.7
Tone It Down - 117
Rachel Alexandra - 1.1
No, not me, Steve. Here's what I get using the will-pays with the Susan winner and making the takeout 18%:

Big Drama 7.2
Mine That Bird 10.2
Musket Man 9.6
Luv Gov 74.5
Friesen Fire 5.5
Terrain 31.7
Papa Clem 11.6
General Quarters 22.5
Pioneerof the Nile 6.4
Flying Private 82.6
Take the Points 25.9
Tone It Down 93.1
Rachel Alexandra 1.5

--Dunbar
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  #19  
Old 05-15-2009, 11:51 PM
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Pretty damn close...
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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  #20  
Old 05-16-2009, 12:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin
odds as of Friday night (per DRF.com). I think RA only drifts up from here.


PREAKNESS EARLY BETTING

1. Big Drama - 9-1

2. Mine That Bird - 7-1

3. Musket Man - 18-1

4. Luv Gov - 25-1

5. Friesan Fire - 8-1

6. Terrain - 25-1

7. Papa Clem - 14-1

8. General Quarters - 17-1

9. Pioneerof the Nile - 7-1

10. Flying Private - 25-1

11. Take the Points - 14-1

12. Tone It Down - 19-1

13. Rachel Alexandra - 3-2

Not to be greedy, but I was expecting a better price at this "point" on Take the Points for exotics.
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