6/6: ATR SELECTIONS: Belmont Day

[Kasept]

A different kind of Triple Crown season draws to a close today, having already produced a highly memorable and entertaining traverse of results and emotions. The 'heroes and villains' of this particularly peculiar campaign have exchanged hats more than once since Kentucky, but the overall winner in the final analysis may be the game of racing with several potentially sustainable equine and human stars having emerged.

Weather has been poor the last 48 hours and we will encounter a wet track to start the day at Belmont. With luck, the main track should improve as the afternoon wears on, but there has to be a great deal of moisture in it to start. The turf will be yielding at best. Good luck today, and I hope you have enjoyed 'At the Races' coverage of the 2009 Derby, Preakness and Belmont.


BELMONT PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Dixieland Star 2-1
Best Value: #10 Toque 10-1
Next Best: #5 Living Out a Dream 8-1
Super Add: #7 Justin P 30-1


2nd: OC/N1X, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Speight of Hand 7-2
Best Value: #5 Brother Nick 10-1
Next Best: #7 Just Ben 3-1


3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Convocation 3-1
Best Value: #12 Frenchonionsoup 10-1
Next Best: #11 Wanted Alive 5-1
Super Add: #8 Bimini 6-1


4th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Expansion 3-1
Best Value: #8 Blazing Dynamo 6-1
Next Best: #3 Slam Dunk 5-1
Super Add: #1 Spurred 9-2

OFF THE TURF: 11-12-13-5


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Le Grand Cru 10-1
Most Likely: #10 Sette E Mezzo 4-1
Next Best: #8 My Man Lars 12-1
Super Add: #9 Western Influence 10-1

OFF THE TURF: 5-14-11-12


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-5-6-7
3: 2-12
4: 2-3-8 (OFF: 11-12-13)
5: 5-8-10 (OFF: 5-11-14)

4x2x3x3 = $72


6th: 31st True North H. (Gr. II), 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Fabulous Strike 2-1
Best Value: #5 Desert Key 6-1
Next Best: #1 Benny the Bull 5-2


7th: 16th Just a Game (Gr. I), F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Forever Together 6-5
Best Value: #7 Diamondrella 8-1
Next Best: #3 Captain's Lover 8-1
Super Add: #1 Caribean Sunset 6-1


8th: 25th Woody Stephens (Gr. II), 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 THIS ONE'S FOR PHIL 7-2
Best Value: #8 Hull 3-1
Next Best: #1 Godolphin-Darley entry 2-1


9th: 79th Acorn (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Justwhistledixie 8-5
Next Best: #7 Dream Play 6-1
Best Value: #6 Livin Lovin 15-1
Super Add: #2 Gabby's Golden Gal 15-1


10th: 108th Manhattan H. (Gr. I), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Gio Ponti 7-2
Best Value: #11 Lauro 15-1
Next Best: #1 (POE) Court Vision 4-1
Super Add: #9 Cosmonaut 6-1


11th: 141st Belmont Stakes (Gr. I), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Mine That Bird 2-1
Next Best: #2 Dunkirk 4-1
Best Value: #9 Miner's Escape 15-1
Super Add: #1 Chocolate Candy 10-1


<$200 P6 Play:

6: 5-6
7: 5
8: 2-8
9: 7-8
10: 1-5-11
11: 1-2-6-7

2x1x2x2x3x4 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-8
9: 6-7-8
10: 1-5-11
11: 1-2-6-7

2x3x3x4 = $72


12th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #13 Afrikaner 2-1
Best Value: #15 Believe in Love 6-1
Next Best: #14 African Knight 3-1
Super Add: #2 Monastir 8-1


10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super)

OFF THE TURF

Most Likely: #16 Lincoln Road 3-1
Best Value: #2 Driven by Royal 8-1
Next Best: #4 Manchild 2-1
Super Add: #14 Wanda's Double 4-1


<$75 P4 Play:

10: 1-5-11
11: 1-2-6-7
12: 13-14-15
13: 2-16

3x4x3x2 = $72


Good luck!
Steve



GUS ALONSO'S SATURDAY ACTION

Belmont Park


R4 - OC50k/N2X (Turf)

#2 Expansion - Was 2nd in most recent as the favorite when beating by G1 Manhattan starter Premium Gold.
#4 Uncle Indy - Trainer demands respect and wins at a high % with horses coming off a layoff.
#10 Radical Sabbatical - Prado should have him in good position turning for home.
#1 Spurred - Must be considered off consistent races.

R5 - Alw 56k N1X (Turf)

#4 So It Goes - Good effort despite traffic trouble in 1st start of the year last month.
#5 Le Grand Cru - Ran well in turf debut and the Giant Killer adds the hood for this.
#10 Sette E Mezzo - Has found his home on the turf, but top connections will keep the price short.
#3 Get Stormy - Seems to have some tactical speed and should have enough to be around late.

R6 - G2 True North

#6 Fabulous Strike - Turns back to his preferred distance and looks to run them off their feet.
#5 Desert Key - Should benefit from those chasing the top choice and round out the exacta.
#2 Silver Edition - Another one that will be running late.
#1 Benny the Bull - Hard to imagine Benny being 100% for this when making his 1st start in almost a year.

R7 - G1 Just A Game (Turf)

#5 Forever Together - Champion has proved she can handle a variety of distances and course conditions.
#3 Captain's Lover (Saf) - Group 1 winner in her homeland makes U.S. debut for Pletcher.
#6 Modern Look (GB) - Failed at odds for Frankel and he decides to send her across the country for a G1.
#4 I Lost My Choo - Winning machine might be overlooked at the windows despite her impressive record.

R8 - G2 Woody Stephens

#2 This Ones for Phil - Any of his last four races and the rest are in trouble.
#4 Munnings - Really liked his comeback race at CD.
#1 Godolphin/Darely entry - Logical candidates.
#8 Hull - Undefeated colt takes another step up.

R9 - G1 Acorn

#8 Justwhistledixie - Hasn't missed a beat in the morning despite not running since March '09.
#4 Funny Moon- Clement seems fit to throw her in G1 company.
#1 Casanova Move - Hard knocker will run her race again.
#9 Four Gifts - Coming off her biggest win to date for Asmussen.

R10 - G1 Manhattan (Turf)

#2 Champs Elysess (GB) - G1 winner on soft footing and a big price with new pilot.
#1 Court Vision - No stranger to G1 races.
#6 Wesley - In career form.
#11 Lauro (Ger) - Worth a flyer here making 2nd start of the year. Took G2 at Woodbine last year in 2nd start.

R11 - G1 Belmont Stakes

#2 Dunkirk - Plenty of excuses in the Derby, it's show time.
#6 Charitable Man - Talented runner is coming in off a dominating victory in G2 Peter Pan.
#4 Summer Bird - New jock and blinkers will help the cause.
#7 Mine That Bird - Must admit I never considered him in either of the first two legs of the Triple Crown series and I was completely wrong, but I'm pot committed against him.

PK4 - 1 2 4 8 / 1 4 8 / 1 2 5 6 11 12 / 2 = $72


Arlington Park (Spot Play)

R11 - Tin Man 50k (Turf) - Conviently scheduled 16 minutes prior to the Belmont Stakes.

#3 Telling - I've been anxiously waiting for his return after the troubled trip 2nd versus similar last month. You can add that he closed into pedestrian like fractions (26, 52, & 118) in that latest race. Should handle this group, especially with the extra sixteenth to negotiate. Check out the replay of his last race at Arlingtonpark.com and watch how he passing the winner just two jumps after the wire. Anything over 2-1 and it's worth the serious plunge.
#7 Tiger Woodman - He's in very good form.
#8 General Charley - Won this event last year off a similar Claiming race win.
#5 Valtrus - Nice value on a runner that will be coming late for a minor share.

Good Racing Luck
Gus