Morning Line has The Tin Man 10-1

Rupert Pupkin · #1 08-09-2006, 02:58 PM

What in the world is the morning-line maker thinking? He's got The Tin Man at 10-1. I figured he'd be about 3-1. I think I saw English Channel at 3-1 and Cacique was about 7-2.

Gander · #2 08-09-2006, 03:01 PM

His thinking is that the public will dismiss a horse like the Tin Man, who hasnt beaten top fields like this too often. He is old and extremely lovable. If I dont have a bet on someone else I will be rooting for him.

I happen to agree with the oddsmaker and think these odds will hold up, maybe 8/1 on the Tin Man but certainly not much lower.

Cacique and English Channel are two very awesome horses right now who never fail to fire and keep the very best competition.

Rupert Pupkin · #3 08-09-2006, 03:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

His thinking is that the public will dismiss a horse like the Tin Man, who hasnt beaten top fields like this too often. He is old and extremely lovable. If I dont have a bet on someone else I will be rooting for him.

I happen to agree with the oddsmaker and think these odds will hold up, maybe 8/1 on the Tin Man but certainly not much lower.

Cacique and English Channel are two very awesome horses right now who never fail to fire and keep the very best competition.

The Tin Man has won every race that he's run in since he came back off the layoff with the exception of the $2 million Dubai race where he ran 2nd to David Junior. He's been running in nothing but Grade I and Grade II races and he's won all of them except for his 2nd place finish to David Junior in the Grade I $2 million Dubai race.
David Junior would be the favorite in this race.

Scav · #4 08-09-2006, 03:24 PM

he is smoking something....he is probably trying to sway the public as arlington look at the ML as gospel..

You think Tinny is live?

Gander · #5 08-09-2006, 03:27 PM

Didnt David Junior beat him by many lengths and couldnt it have been even more?

Rupert Pupkin · #6 08-09-2006, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

he is smoking something....he is probably trying to sway the public as arlington look at the ML as gospel..

You think Tinny is live?

He's been unbeatable since he's come back with the exception of his 2nd place to finish to David Junior. If he runs the way he's been running, he's got to be the horse to beat.

Rupert Pupkin · #7 08-09-2006, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gander

Didnt David Junior beat him by many lengths and couldnt it have been even more?

I think he beat him by about 2-3 lengths but David Junior is one of top few best turf horses in the world.

#8 08-09-2006, 03:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I think he beat him by about 2-3 lengths but David Junior is one of top few best turf horses in the world.

David Junior might be the best. He has actually beaten Ouija Board at Sandown.

Rupert Pupkin · #9 08-09-2006, 03:46 PM

In addition, I think that The Tin Man went off at about 3-1 in that big race in Dubai. If he's going off at 3-1 in there, he's not going to be 10-1 in the Arlington Million. There is no great horse in the Million this year. There are some very good horses but there's no super star. I actually expected to The Tin Man to be the favorite.

Scav · #10 08-09-2006, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

In addition, I think that The Tin Man went off at about 3-1 in that big race in Dubai. If he's going off at 3-1 in there, he's not going to be 10-1 in the Arlington Million. There is no great horse in the Million this year. There are some very good horses but there's no super star. I actually expected to The Tin Man to be the favorite.

No way, The midwest Pletcher steam and the euro's are guaranteed to take action. Everyone in these midwest tracks want to tell their friends that they had the Pletcher horse that won today yadda yadda.

I am looking forward to seeing the sheets for this race. I know Tin is just as quick as the others, so might get some serious value in the pick threes with him

Pedigree Ann · #11 08-09-2006, 03:54 PM

What's the pace scenario? Tin Man loves to sit up front through easy fractions and keep on going.

Scav · #12 08-09-2006, 03:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pedigree Ann

What's the pace scenario? Tin Man loves to sit up front through easy fractions and keep on going.

That VERY well could happen in this race. It could be a Silvano type year

miraja2 · #13 08-09-2006, 04:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

What in the world is the morning-line maker thinking? He's got The Tin Man at 10-1. I figured he'd be about 3-1. I think I saw English Channel at 3-1 and Cacique was about 7-2.

I bet he will be bet way down, but English Channel will still be the favorite. I expect that The Tin Man will be the second choice at something like 4-1, and that just means I'll get the winner (Cacique) at a nice third choice price of something like 9-2.

Dunbar · #14 08-09-2006, 06:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by miraja2

I bet he will be bet way down, but English Channel will still be the favorite. I expect that The Tin Man will be the second choice at something like 4-1, and that just means I'll get the winner (Cacique) at a nice third choice price of something like 9-2.

I suspect that if you put together a fair odds line for this race, no horse would be lower than 5-1. It's hard to separate Cacique, English Channel, and the Tin Man. Ace is not far behind them, and there are several other horses that have a shot.

It's easy to think 4-1 or 9-2 looks good until you try to put reasonable numbers on the other horses' chances. This is especially true in an 11-horse field.

--Dunbar

Danzig · #15 08-09-2006, 07:29 PM

i think most everyone would love to see the tin man win, for sentimental reasons for many of us. it sure wouldn't break my heart if he won, altho i do like english channel.

ceejay · #16 08-09-2006, 07:40 PM

Well the San Marcos does look like it turned out as a "Key" race: 3 returning stakes winners, and 2 returning stakes places. I do think he's a level or two below the top contenders, though.

Rupert Pupkin · #17 08-09-2006, 07:47 PM

With regard to the Dubai race where The Tin Man ran 2nd, I meant to say it was a $5 million race, not a $2 million race.

Scav · #18 08-09-2006, 07:51 PM

I tend to not favor what happens in Dubai that much quite honestly. While the money is unbeatable, you just don't know what you are getting when you come back...Not saying this is in reference to The Tin Man, but in general

#19 08-09-2006, 08:21 PM

The Tin Man is always a great horse to have in a turf race cause he can wire a good field. He can win up front, and even if he does not, the others will have to work and not take their jolly time like many of the Euro races. Imo horses like this makes wagering on turf more fun.

ArlJim78 · #20 08-09-2006, 08:35 PM

I think the M/L is not too high. At this distance and against this competition I think he has very little chance of winning. Three years ago in his prime he went off at around 6:1 and got swallowed up in the stretch. For me he is an immediate toss.