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#1
07-02-2009, 08:38 AM
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7/2: BEL (4th-9th); CD (4th-11th)
Solid try at the BEL carryover P6 was thwarted Wednesday by Fiona Freud, the perennial also ran that got her 2nd career win in her 25th start in the 5th. I tried to single Bruce Levine's Pea Stone, and upon further review, I'm not disappointed with the decision. The 11-2 Roddy Valente runner, who normally seeks a just-off stalker's trip, had traffic trouble trying to rally after a slow start and only missed by a length and a half.
That was bad luck as the rest of the sequence went the right way for a $3,700+ 6/6 payday and $45 5/6 conso. A Pea Stone win over the 3-2 Fiona Freud boosts that sextet return by perhaps three times, so I came away feeling OK about the attempt which dropped in cost to $144 after the early scratch of We Get It from the nightcap. Caught the late P4 for $127, so the expenses of the day were more than acceptable given the mutuel potential had everything broken perfectly. Hope you did well. A little Belmont and the final Churchill nightswimming are today's glances. BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 4th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1e Violette entry (Only one goes; Both good) 9-2 Best Value: #4 Consort 10-1 Next Best: #2b (POE) Discreetly Mine 5-2 (Only one goes) Exotics Use: #7 Insightful 6-1 5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Star Player 5-2 Best Value: #2 SCR Next Best: #1 Thunder Minister 5-1 Super Add: #3 Iron Curtain 4-1 6th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #7 Ten Carrot Nikki 3-1 Best Value: #4 Smokin Pistol 8-1 Next Best: #9 Crimson's Gold 7-2 7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 I'llthinkofsumthin 6-1 Best Value: #7 Trillium 20-1 Next Best: #1 What She Said 5-2 Exotics Use: #2e Jacobson entry 4-1 OFF THE TURF: 9-7-10 Trifecta Spot Play: 5-7 with 1-2-5-6-7 with 1-2-5-6-7 (2x4x3 = $24) 8th: NYB-Wandering Cloud, F&M-3+, 6f (DD) Most Likely: #6 Northern Netti 2-1 Next Best: #1 Dance Gal Dance 5-2 Best Value: #4 Muffy 6-1 9th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super) Most Likely: #2 Better Than Swiss 5-2 Best Value: #1 Cherry Lady 9-2 Next Best: #7 By the Sky 4-1 Super Add: #8 Royal Valentine 5-1 @$75 P4 Play: 6: 4-7 7: 1-2-5-6-7 8: 1-6 9: 1-2-7-8 2x5x2x4 = $80 CHURCHILL DOWNS PRE-SCRATCHES 4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Atomic Force 9-2 3rd Best Value: #8 Barishnikov 5-1 6th Next Best: #6 Insider 3-1 WON Super Add: #7 Cape Doctor 4-1 4th 5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f ( Most Likely: #9 Half Crafty 5-1 2nd Best Value: #7 Dabeed 10-1 10th Next Best: #1 Bottle of Smoke 7-2 4th Super Add: #8 Dr. Fever 12-1 8th 6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #11 SCR Next Best: #10 Sealed Bid 4-1 5th Best Value: #8 La Milanesa 5-1 WON Exotics Use: #7 Cruisin'nthebridle 3-1 3rd High 5 Play: #2 Queen of Empire 5-1 4th 7th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3) Most Likely: #4 Step Out Smartly 3-1 WON-DH Best Value: #5 Honest to Betsy 5-1 Next Best: #6 SCR <$75 P4 Play: 4: 6-8-9 5: 1-7-8-9 6: 7-8-10-11/SCR 7: 4-5-6 3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 8th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Fiftycentsondollar 4-1 6th Best Value: #8 Aztec King 8-1 2nd Next Best: #3 SCR Super Add: #6 Izzy Ali 5-1 7th 9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Special Clearance 4-1 4th Best Value: #6 Hitch Your Wagon 9-2 6th Next Best: #4 A. M. Due 5-1 7th Super Add: #8 Sister Lou Ann 3-1 WON-DH 10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super) Best Value: #7 Squander 15-1 10th Most Likely: #3 Itain'tover 7-2 5th Next Best: #4 Senor Fuego 6-1 6th Super Add: #5 Tintim Por Tintim 5-1 9th 11th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 5.5f (Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #11 Fort Apache 7-2 3rd Next Best: #2 Icetate 3-1 2nd Best Value: #3 Iftheshoefits 12-1 WON Exotics Use: #6 SCR High 5 Play: #5 Niobrara 4-1 7th <$75 P4 Play: 8: 3/SCR-5-8 9: 2-3-4-6-8 10: 1-3-4-5-7 11: 2-11 2x5x5x2 = 100 x .50 = $50 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-03-2009 at 09:36 AM. 
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#2
07-02-2009, 11:48 AM
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Weather update. Raining and dark. Could be another storm brewing very soon
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#5
07-02-2009, 12:49 PM
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% chance that they come off the turf, anyone?
__________________
"A person who saw no important difference between the fire outside a Neandrathal's cave and a working thermo-nuclear reactor might tell you that junk bonds and derivatives BOTH serve to energize capital" - Nathan Israel
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#6
07-02-2009, 01:10 PM
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Quote:
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#7
07-02-2009, 01:45 PM
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They ripped off yet another 21 and change 1st quarter sprinting (in the 1st race). Hard to do on an off turf.
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#8
07-02-2009, 02:27 PM
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Belmont
p-6 5 7----3 9----7---2 3 4----6----5 $24
late P-4 4 7 8----1 2 3 4 5----1 6----2 5 7 $90
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#9
07-02-2009, 02:38 PM
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Just Zip It Race 8
Spot play turf to dirt with Turner 4 for last 9 and ROI 9.93 ML 15-1 Race isn't exactly loaded and while I can't for the life of me understand why a single turf race would help a horse move forward the numbers here are frightening
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#13
07-03-2009, 07:53 AM
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Thx. Was nice to get something right after a largely poor effort all day/night.
 Caller to ATR ended up being right about YouBet telling him there wasn't a middle P4 Thursday. DRF and Xpressbet both had the 4th-7th $100k guarantee in their listings. No excuse for confusion on things like this.  Anybody ever see 2 win dead heats on the same card before? 
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#14
07-03-2009, 09:08 AM
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Quote:
Just to add a bit more confusion to the fire... Capital OTB has the following payoffs listed on their instant result page: Race 7 - Churchill(TCD$02A07) - Post Time: 18:10 Bet Win Place Show 1 4.00 4.00 2.20 4 3.00 3.20 2.10 2 2.20 $2 EXACTA (4/1) $9.40 $2 EXACTA (1/4) $12.60 $2 DOUBLE (8/4) $14.80 $2 DOUBLE (8/1) $55.20 $0 PICK 4 (6,11-14/5/8/1,3,4,6) (4 OF4) $164.35 $2 PICK 3 (5/8/4) $80.40 $2 PICK 3 (5/8/1) $290.20 I am not sure if DRF or Equibase got the complete results chart. But it looks like there was a mid-Pick 4.
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___________________ Woulda Coulda Shoulda
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#16
07-03-2009, 09:29 AM
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This is bizarre... There isn't a P4 payout on the DRF chart. Ridiculous.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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