question about trips - SUBURBAN - timing the move, scrubbing, urging

[Bobby Fischer]

It was pretty clear on paper that this would be a last move race.

My questions here are about the timing of when the jockey(s) start to urge and scrub their horses

It's a Bird - obviously he wasn't good enough for the 10 furlong classic distance, and if there is any significant adjustment from the jock it would be in positioning him further off the pace, not in the timing of the move.
However I'm trying to learn more about timing the move...
-Castellano is scrubbing and urging IT's a Bird well BEFORE the far turn. I know this is really a sign of the horse not having much left in the tank, as it almost always happens with distance limitations around a turn. As said above he wasn't a win contender, but was this a premature urging ?

Asiatic Boy - at least he finished second so it is more orthodox to talk about his trip than Its a Bird... but he isn't asked that much later than It's a Bird. he gets the change leads chop and then is hard ridden prior to and on the turn!
I don't know how to ride a horse, so my natural opinion is that he should be "sitting chilly" with a relaxed reign and hands in the "buzzer position" like valdivia jr. or borel do when on the pace approaching the far turn. Asiatic Boy hung on fairly well although Martini had more horse late. Focusing solely on the timing of his move - for the trip experts/ jockeys - was this urging as badly premature as it appears to me or is it necessary to scrub and ask these horses well before the critical last move moment occurs in a grade 2 or 3 type of 10furlong race like the suburban ??

[the_fat_man]

I'd get an email over to Eric Donovan.

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'd get an email over to Eric Donovan.

hey!, hes a good guy

[the_fat_man]

I took your silly ass off ignore to see what this was about. (This speaks to the quality of the posters here. )

I'm going to lay it out for you, as it appears that you, and many others, just don't want to get it. SCREW all the little things happening in the race: a horse 'appears' to not like where it is (doesn't like the inside, doesn't like being between, doesn't this, doesn't like that), all the little bumps, all the trivial shuffles backs, how the jock is pumping, etc.

These are, at best, ADVANCED techniques that should only come into play ONCE you have a grasp as to the setup of the race. Now, this is NOT what your pace figures tell you (although some are), this is not your opinion of how fast the pace was, or any other such preconceived BIAS as to how a given horse ran or was supposed to run. 99.99% of the time the HORSES will 'tell' you what the setup was. After all, they're the ones running the race. Once you have this down, then you can go back and look for trip things. But there won't be many, other than: where the horse was on the turn(s), what lead it was on at a given point in the race (not just at the finish), and whether it went with or without cover on the backstretch.

By not understanding (or considering) the setup, the tendency is to give much more importance to the trivialities (the 'little' things) mentioned above. The best trip handicapper is not better than the handicapper who understands setups. A high level understanding of 'intuitive pace' trumps just about anything.

That's it, Fischer.

P.S. If you can't spot a premature move at this point in your career (and I'm not referring to the race you mentioned), you better just give it up and join the countless others in the same boat.

[Bobby Fischer]

appreciate the reply

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I took your silly ass off ignore to see what this was about. (This speaks to the quality of the posters here. )

I'm going to lay it out for you, as it appears that you, and many others, just don't want to get it. SCREW all the little things happening in the race: a horse 'appears' to not like where it is (doesn't like the inside, doesn't like being between, doesn't this, doesn't like that), all the little bumps, all the trivial shuffles backs, how the jock is pumping, etc.

These are, at best, ADVANCED techniques that should only come into play ONCE you have a grasp as to the setup of the race. Now, this is NOT what your pace figures tell you (although some are), this is not your opinion of how fast the pace was, or any other such preconceived BIAS as to how a given horse ran or was supposed to run. 99.99% of the time the HORSES will 'tell' you what the setup was. After all, they're the ones running the race. Once you have this down, then you can go back and look for trip things. But there won't be many, other than: where the horse was on the turn(s), what lead it was on at a given point in the race (not just at the finish), and whether it went with or without cover on the backstretch.

By not understanding (or considering) the setup, the tendency is to give much more importance to the trivialities (the 'little' things) mentioned above. The best trip handicapper is not better than the handicapper who understands setups. A high level understanding of 'intuitive pace' trumps just about anything.

That's it, Fischer.

P.S. If you can't spot a premature move at this point in your career (and I'm not referring to the race you mentioned), you better just give it up and join the countless others in the same boat.

Take me off ignore.

I dare you...............

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

It was pretty clear on paper that this would be a last move race.

My questions here are about the timing of when the jockey(s) start to urge and scrub their horses

It's a Bird - obviously he wasn't good enough for the 10 furlong classic distance, and if there is any significant adjustment from the jock it would be in positioning him further off the pace, not in the timing of the move.
However I'm trying to learn more about timing the move...
-Castellano is scrubbing and urging IT's a Bird well BEFORE the far turn. I know this is really a sign of the horse not having much left in the tank, as it almost always happens with distance limitations around a turn. As said above he wasn't a win contender, but was this a premature urging ?

Asiatic Boy - at least he finished second so it is more orthodox to talk about his trip than Its a Bird... but he isn't asked that much later than It's a Bird. he gets the change leads chop and then is hard ridden prior to and on the turn!
I don't know how to ride a horse, so my natural opinion is that he should be "sitting chilly" with a relaxed reign and hands in the "buzzer position" like valdivia jr. or borel do when on the pace approaching the far turn. Asiatic Boy hung on fairly well although Martini had more horse late. Focusing solely on the timing of his move - for the trip experts/ jockeys - was this urging as badly premature as it appears to me or is it necessary to scrub and ask these horses well before the critical last move moment occurs in a grade 2 or 3 type of 10furlong race like the suburban ??

Call me crazy....but I think this had less to do with the ride/distance and more to do with the dentention barn/certain out of state trainers having trouble winning in NY for obvious reasons.

Also in my opinion the horse being 6-1 early and going off 3-1 was a HUGE tell.

[the_fat_man]

Ahhhhh

The CLUELESS WONDER is here. Too bad you're still sucking my IGGY and I won't get a chance to be exposed to your wisdom.

How's the Vic thing going, Douche? Was it traumatic for you?


Ha ha ha

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Ahhhhh

The CLUELESS WONDER is here. Too bad you're still sucking my IGGY and I won't get a chance to be exposed to your wisdom.

How's the Vic thing going, Douche?

For someone who has me on ignore you sure do read a lot of my posts. You are such an easy mark.

Actually my comments about Vic went well. Better than I thought.

Any jocks to whine about today ? Perhaps another post about tracks not getting the all important Trakus ? It was raining down here in Fla today so I am sure you have some whining to do about the turf course at Calder.


Funny...all of your useless analysis must be leading you to the poor house. Usually guys going busted betting cry and whine all the time.

My condolences to your betting account.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by stonegossard

Call me crazy....but I think this had less to do with the ride/distance and more to do with the dentention barn/certain out of state trainers having trouble winning in NY for obvious reasons.

Also in my opinion the horse being 6-1 early and going off 3-1 was a HUGE tell.

Didn't Wolfson win an off the turf stakes race in NY like a month ago?

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Didn't Wolfson win an off the turf stakes race in NY like a month ago?

You are right. Good call. I just always wonder about the guy. He moves horses up insanely....has a history of drug infractions. Figured the horse might not have been going through his usual pre-race program.

The betting on that horse was very odd.

[hockey2315]

Not saying I don't wonder about him. . .

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Didn't Wolfson win an off the turf stakes race in NY like a month ago?

Actually it was just 2 weeks ago. Icon Project in the slop romped to a 13 length score in the new york stakes.

[stonegossard]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Not saying I don't wonder about him. . .

I hear ya man. I am still scratching my head about the job Wolfson did with that Mott turf horse who went from high claimers to winning The BC.