Saratoga 8f on inner turf

[The Indomitable DrugS]

It would logically seem like the toughest post position of all at Saratoga would be breaking from post 10 going a mile on the inner turf.

Field size is limited to just 10 at the mile distance on the inner - and with a fairly short run to the first turn - and tighter turns - it would seem a nearly impossible draw.

I have post stats going back to '96 though, and post 10 wins at 17%. The second highest win percentage is just 12%.

From '96 through '07 - it led post 3 15% to 13% for best win percentage.

Last year, extreme outside post 10 won 4 of 16 races at a mile on the Inner Turf ... and finished 2nd twice more... including Seven In a Row missing by a neck at 33/1 odds from post 10 in a race where the three extreme outside most post positions made up a trifecta that paid $3,305.00

Field size shouldn't be limited to 10 at a mile on the Inner. The numbers say that there is no grossly unfair disadvantage to being marooned wide out there with that short run into the tight first turn. Logic might say otherwise .. but 13 years of data trumps logic.

[Travis Stone]

At LAD the argument is not about disadvantage, but jockey safety. The jocks start to make noise when too many horses are hitting the first turn when the track configuration is tight (not the width of the track, but the tightness of the turns). I remember trying to get an 11th horse once for a stake, and it was like asking for someone's first born, but they eventually let us.

[parsixfarms]

Is there a profile for these runners? Intuitively, I would think that they are probably closers for whom the outside draw is not as much a hinderance. With the short run to the clubhouse turn, the fractions are usually pretty legit in these races, and the closers have a chance.

A lot of horses have trouble negotiating that turn. For safety reasons, I don't think I'd want to see them increase field size in these races to 12 horses.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Not really much of a profile. Some speed, some mid-pack, some closers.

I'm all for bigger fields.

I guess if the jockeys say they don't feel safe it won't matter.

If that's the case though ... why not just make all races on the inner turf 8.5 furlongs? I realize you can't run 8fs on the mellon.. but so what.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If that's the case though ... why not just make all races on the inner turf 8.5 furlongs? I realize you can't run 8fs on the mellon.. but so what.

Actually, I'd prefer that 8.5F was the shortest distance on the inner.

On the safety issue, keep in mind that the 2YO races in recent years have changed from 8F on the inner to 8.5F on the Mellon.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It would logically seem like the toughest post position of all at Saratoga would be breaking from post 10 going a mile on the inner turf.

Field size is limited to just 10 at the mile distance on the inner - and with a fairly short run to the first turn - and tighter turns - it would seem a nearly impossible draw.

I have post stats going back to '96 though, and post 10 wins at 17%. The second highest win percentage is just 12%.

From '96 through '07 - it led post 3 15% to 13% for best win percentage.

Last year, extreme outside post 10 won 4 of 16 races at a mile on the Inner Turf ... and finished 2nd twice more... including Seven In a Row missing by a neck at 33/1 odds from post 10 in a race where the three extreme outside most post positions made up a trifecta that paid $3,305.00

Field size shouldn't be limited to 10 at a mile on the Inner. The numbers say that there is no grossly unfair disadvantage to being marooned wide out there with that short run into the tight first turn. Logic might say otherwise .. but 13 years of data trumps logic.

Nice nugget of info.. Thanks