Nice case of PAST POSTING at AP: R1

[the_fat_man]

I'm watching the odds carefully, as I have a conditional wager on the 1, Classical Recital; looking to get 15:1 at ZERO minutes to post.

She never makes it: at 0 to post she's 14 to 1, then goes to 15:1 before they load. As they're in the gate, the screen shows 13:1, and it does so as well in the run to the 1st turn.

By the time she gets to the turn, just as one of the other duelers bears out, she's 8:1.

Fair game.

BTW, she finished off the board.

[Riot]

If they stopped accepting wagers at five minutes to post, when do you think, under current conditions, final odds would be posted? There would still be that delay, at 4-3 minutes to post. Well after we could stop making or canceling wagers.

I don't see any way, even using current technology if they changed, they could accumulate and post all pools domestic and foreign in under 30 seconds. Maybe I'm wrong.

[PeteMugg]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm watching the odds carefully, as I have a conditional wager on the 1, Classical Recital; looking to get 15:1 at ZERO minutes to post.

She never makes it: at 0 to post she's 14 to 1, then goes to 15:1 before they load. As they're in the gate, the screen shows 13:1, and it does so as well in the run to the 1st turn.

By the time she gets to the turn, just as one of the other duelers bears out, she's 8:1.

Fair game.

BTW, she finished off the board.

We keep hitting on this subject and debating how long it should take to accumulate all the wagers from the many different sources.
Do you think large conditional wagers could be a part of late changes? It would seem the heavy hitters would use this feature a lot, especially on favorites.
I'm not familiar with how this actually plays out, perhaps you could give us a tutorial and estimate how much longer this might add to the final tote.

[herkhorse]

Just curious -If you believe in all this past post stuff, why play conditional wagers at all? As it is there is usually at least a few minutes from "0" minutes to post to the time they are actually "off", so it's rarely accurate anyway, and that's before any alleged past posting.

[chucklestheclown]

A couple weeks ago I went to my stand-by teller at 2MTP and he told me "It's closed." I look at the screen and they aren't even done loading. So for at least some big races the AP OTBs shut you out EARLY.

[golfer]

The 7 horse, Enriched, was 3-1 as they entered the gate, 3-1 during the race, won and paid off at 7-2 ($9.60).

Just pointing out that the odds can go up.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by golfer

Just pointing out that the odds can go up.

You'll definitely appreciate today's 4th at AP, then. #2, Rochester Cat, is 9:2 as they load the last horse into the gate. He breaks dueling with the 1 and drops to 4:1 when they post the 1st flash. Just after the qtr split, when he's in a nice stalking position, the odds drop to 7:2 (where they remain). Seems to me, someone was allowed/decided to hammer him when they saw that nice stalking position.

He didn't win but this points to past posting to me.

[golfer]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

You'll definitely appreciate today's 4th at AP, then. #2, Rochester Cat, is 9:2 as they load the last horse into the gate. He breaks dueling with the 1 and drops to 4:1 when they post the 1st flash. Just after the qtr split, when he's in a nice stalking position, the odds drop to 7:2 (where they remain). Seems to me, someone was allowed/decided to hammer him when they saw that nice stalking position.

He didn't win but this points to past posting to me.

I did notice that. I bet the 2, BEFORE the race started.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm watching the odds carefully, as I have a conditional wager on the 1, Classical Recital; looking to get 15:1 at ZERO minutes to post.

She never makes it: at 0 to post she's 14 to 1, then goes to 15:1 before they load. As they're in the gate, the screen shows 13:1, and it does so as well in the run to the 1st turn.

By the time she gets to the turn, just as one of the other duelers bears out, she's 8:1.

Fair game.

BTW, she finished off the board.

Fats, teach me something....
What is the difference in 15-1 and 13-1, if you like a horse. Some handicappers will live w/ 4-1 for life.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Fats, teach me something....
What is the difference in 15-1 and 13-1, if you like a horse. Some handicappers will live w/ 4-1 for life.

If you were married, why would you care if someone else was banging your wife, as long as you were getting some too?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Fats, teach me something....
What is the difference in 15-1 and 13-1, if you like a horse. Some handicappers will live w/ 4-1 for life.

While I like fatman's marriage analogy, here's another answer.

If you get 13-1 when you could have gotten 15-1, you are giving up over 13% of your return.

I won't make a bet unless I think I have an edge, but I'm realistic enough to understand that my overall edge is unlikely to be much over 13%. If I give up 13%, I may well have no edge at all.

That's why I could easily pass on a 13-1 that I'd be happy to bet at 15-1.

--Dunbar

[the_fat_man]

The crap continues at AP. Today R3:

following the odds on Zagamor, cause I need 20:1 to get through conditional wagering. he slowly creeps up going to 17:1, 21:1, and finally 20:1 just before they break.

when he breaks in front and opens up, the first flash is 20:1. It stays that way till just before they hit the turn, when he's hit to 16:1.

$42 becomes $34 courtesy of AP and their past posting policy for their WHALES.

nice................

And the focus is all on takeout and drugs.

P.S. McMullen is one SHARP mofo.

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The crap continues at AP. Today R3:

following the odds on Zagamor, cause I need 20:1 to get through conditional wagering. he slowly creeps up going to 17:1, 21:1, and finally 20:1 just before they break.

when he breaks in front and opens up, the first flash is 20:1. It stays that way till just before they hit the turn, when he's hit to 16:1.

$42 becomes $34 courtesy of AP and their past posting policy for their WHALES.

nice................

And the focus is all on takeout and drugs.

P.S. McMullen is one SHARP mofo.

maybe it's all that 'fat' money you're putting on the longshots that's driving the odds down??

[Bobby Fischer]

nine times out of ten I write off past posting complaints as ignorance, redboarding, or bad-beat stories, but TFM generally knows what he is talking about, and I'll take a look at the race if I can (albeit a skeptical look).

I've actually used video capturing software at times to record pool information , when there is a significant sum in one of the pools that "shouldn't" be there. - The reason being to catch a late cancel of approximately that sum "proving" pool manipulation. Haven't been successful with that yet.

[richard burch]

that goes on a yonkers quite often.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

The crap continues at AP. Today R3:

following the odds on Zagamor, cause I need 20:1 to get through conditional wagering. he slowly creeps up going to 17:1, 21:1, and finally 20:1 just before they break.

when he breaks in front and opens up, the first flash is 20:1. It stays that way till just before they hit the turn, when he's hit to 16:1.

$42 becomes $34 courtesy of AP and their past posting policy for their WHALES.

nice................

And the focus is all on takeout and drugs.

P.S. McMullen is one SHARP mofo.

Holy crap this cracks me up. I drove through Iowa and Nebraska today, but I managed to stop in Council Bluffs and play a few races, one of which was this one. I had a nice win bet on this horse, and I actually thought of The Fat Man when he crossed the wire, but not in the context of past posting. I thought, man that's why he likes small fields, you can still get value! and here you are bitching about past posting. Nice hit, get over it.

Buy the way, post #10 is my fav. for post of the year.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I thought, man that's why he likes small fields, you can still get value! and here you are bitching about past posting. Nice hit, get over it.

Value is 20:1 not 16:1. Losing 24% because of late wagering is getting bent over. I'm ****in good enough to pick these horses out YET I need to take less money because the tracks want to extend UNFAIR ADVANTAGES to the WHALES. I pay my takeout, I'm fine with that. I'm not fine with given up the additional 24%. Let's summarize: the whales get to bet late and they get REBATES. I get to play the game the normal way, pay my takeout, and have my bombs reduced 24% on top of it. I can beat the game if it were FAIR for all. I certainly have a tougher time winning if I can't get fair odds, however.

Whales taking advantage of your money.

Jesustapdancingchrist somebody post the pools for that race. Are we talking about $10,000 coming in late or $500?

Paranoia.