9/18: Belmont Park (3rd-9th)

[Kasept]

Came away disappointed with myself and really have no good excuse for not structuring a winning P6 play Thursday. This carryover, which ultimately paid nearly $18,000, was VERY hittable. Initial format of $192 investment (2x6x2x1x2x2) would have been a 5 of 6 conso attempt that included the $33 Kimmel firster in the 5th. But that ticket, as well as the final 2x4x2x1x2x3 play, omitted Next Best/3rd choice Midnite Silver from the third leg where I stupidly clung to useless Xodo as a must use.

Those two miscues were the difference between a very nice score and losing $100 on a day where the opinions were much more right than wrong. Redefined was the correct single for both the sextet and quad, and the P4 play returned an OK $183, which helped defray the cost of the P6 try. But ultimately came away from the afternoon feeling like this was a spot where I blew it by failing to utilize main and back-up plays. Hope you did well though.

Interesting series of races today at Belmont with Midshipman returning in the 3rd (2:04pm). And he didn't exactly find a soft spot.


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Just Ben 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Midshipman 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Storm Play 8-5 4th


4th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Sonic Sound 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 I'm Your Lady 7-2 WON
Best Value: #7 French Song 20-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Classofsixtythree 12-1 7th


5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Wow.. Quite a distinguished group. Is 'none of the above' a viable answer?

Most Likely: #4 Timber Cruise 4-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Come Soon 3-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Good Going Darl 8-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Figgy's Freud 12-1 2nd


6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD)

Absolutely fabulous betting affair. All you have to do to appreciate the potential value here is note the similarly conditioned 8/8 event at the Spa where 19-1 Tutti Va Bene edged 46-1 Our Montana Dream (#13 today), 13-1 Miss Dolan's Rose and 11-2 Pals First Lady for a $903 exacta, $9,414 triple and $87,726 super. I'm sure you get the point..

Most Likely: #6 Kaleidoscope Sky 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Crema d'Oro 10-1 4th
Best Value: #10 Dear Contender 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #13 Our Montana Dream 12-1 12th


7th:MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Loyal Leader 5-2 10th
Best Value: #7 Show the Way J 6-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Freshman Dorm 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 J'boy 6-1 6th


8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m-T (DD)

Very nice feature that could easily have been an overnight stake.. A number of front end interested parties involved too, which leads me to lean towards stalker/closer types. Fluke/Inca King are tough to toss, but like the race before, this looks like a fun spot to swing for the fences..

Best Value: #3 Slambino 12-1 2nd
Most Likely: #1e Tagg entry 4-1 3rd/8th
Next Best: #5 Duveen 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Yield Bogey 6-1 4th


9th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #11 Better Than Swiss 8-5 WON
Best Value: #6 Devilshameye 20-1
Next Best: #10 Moon Drop 6-1
Super Add: #4 Sweet Baby Blue 30-1


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-10-11
7: 2-7-9
8: 1-3-4-7
9: 6-11

3x3x4x2 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp



3

5 Knights Cross Early


6

2 Barefoot Babe Early
2B Roger's Julie Early
7 Golden Artemis Early


7

1A Tony Manero Early
2B Power Blast Early


8

8 Broad River Early
9 True Resurgence Early


9

12 Pronto Pronto Early