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#1
09-23-2009, 08:10 AM
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9/23: Belmont Park (6th-9th)
Rolled Saturday's modest $268 P4 score into fun day of Belmont action Sunday that ended with $500 quad and bonus of $200 late P3. You Go West Girl ($12.00) and nightcap single Exhi ($10.40) were a big help in the late multi-race action, but getting 4-1 Legally Blanca to best even money Strike the Bell in the 8th was instrumental to the healthy payoffs. Hope you did well!
The carryover P6 paid nearly $76,000, and though 4 of 6 was an OK try, this was a very approachable jackpot on the kind of budget a lot of us employ. As discussed on ATR Monday, I felt like I had the right understanding of the sequence overall, and needed to use 4 in what was a confusing opening leg for me. And sure enough, 7-1 Wishingonadream, who I had further down my list, took the 5th. While the P3/P4 to end the day more than offset all the afternoon's investments, missing this P6 had a big lost opportunity feel to it. The lesson? Again? DRF Formulator TicketMaker... Stretches the budget and broadens the coverage. Example of the TicketMaker approach is used below on today's P4. It may not be for everyone at first glance, but if you take time to learn its' nuances, it will pay off for you. DRF TicketMaker: http://www.drf.com/formulator/ticketmaker.html Belmont to start the week with an interesting late sequence. And note too that the 6 horse stake in the 3rd is a terrific race to watch today which includes Pyro's little sister War Echo, and more nice 3yo fillies going a mile. BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 (POE) Amiga Del Sol 9-5 WON Best Value: #2 Adriatic Magic 12-1 8th Next Best: #8 Dream Train 6-1 5th Exotics Use: #5 We Got Heat 20-1 11th 7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 SCR Best Value: #1 Stephen's Even 8-1 2nd Next Best: #4 Royal Vessel 10-1 WON Super Add: #8 Bikini 2-1 7th 8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 7f-T (DD) Most Likely: #1e Godolphin entry 5-2 2nd/3rd Next Best: #2 Perfect Casting 9-2 WON Best Value #7 Richland Creek 15-1 5th Exotics Use: #8 American Cruiser 3-1 7th 9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super) Best Value: #7 Serela's Song 6-1 2nd Most Likely: #5 Lofty 3-1 3rd Next Best: #3 Nostalgic 2-1 WON Super Add: #11 Amber Edge 4-1 4th <$75 Simple P4 Play: 6: 1-2-5-8 7: 1-4-8 8: 1-2 9: 3-5-7 4x2x3x3 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (1,4/4/2/1,2,3,4,13,14,15,16) Paid $425.00 <$75 TicketMaker System Plays: 1. 1,2 with 1 with 1,8 with 7 $4.00 2. 8,12 with 1 with 1,8 with 7--$4.00 3. 1,2 with 4 with 1,8 with 7--$4.00 4. 1,2 with 1 with 7,9 with 7--$4.00 5 1,2 with 1 with 1,8 with 3,5--$8.00 6. 8,12 with 4 with 1,8 with 7--$4.00 7 8,12 with 1 with 7,9 with 7--$4.00 8. 8,12 with 1 with 1,8 with 3,5--$8.00 9. 1,2 with 4 with 7,9 with 7--$4.00 10. 1,2 with 4 with 1,8 with 3,5--$8.00 11. 1,2 with 1 with 7,9 with 3,5--$8.00 12. 5 with 1 with 1,8 with 7--$2.00 13. 1,2 with 8 with 1,8 with 7--$4.00 14. 1,2 with 1 with 2 with 7--$2.00 15. 1,2 with 1 with 1,8 with 8--$4.00 Total: $72.00 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 09-23-2009 at 05:32 PM. 
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#2
09-23-2009, 11:45 AM
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BEL COMPLETE CHG'S: http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp
PK 4 SCR'S: 6TH 1A Above the Call Early 4 Darlin Rose Early 7TH 6 Akonite Early 8TH 2B Flint River Early 10 Starforaday Early 11 Bb Livermore Early 12 Sneaky Girl Early 9TH 1 Casing Gold Early 2 Stormie Gray Early 4 Galaxy Love Early 13 Rosalba Yankee Early 14 Why Because Early 15 Purses and Shoes Early 16 Siren's Call Early
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#3
09-23-2009, 02:14 PM
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Steve, ticketmaster plays show you only using your "Next Best" in R8 #2 ONCE on a $2 total cost ticket.
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#4
09-23-2009, 03:06 PM
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Am STILL struggling with it as I decide what kind of ticket to put in for myself.. G/L!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
09-23-2009, 05:00 PM
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Solid cappin' so far. Good luck.
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#7
09-23-2009, 05:33 PM
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So, is that 4 of the last 5 late Pick 4s that you've hit (and given out)?
 And hitting the tri and super in the last race, also? Someone is on a roll! Keep it going! (And thanks for the Pick 4 today.  )
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#9
09-23-2009, 06:40 PM
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#10
09-23-2009, 07:09 PM
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Glad all did well... (Except Potsie above of course...
 ). Nice enough return for the effort I thought. As I said on air, Perfect Casting and Royal Vessel were likely shorter in the P4 than on the win end. Pretty funny that after all the conversation about multiple ticket approach the simpleton straight play is the winner. I tinkered with the structure and the A-B-C's after the scratches and pushed the 2 down outsmarting myself. Will keep offering the multi approach though, as long term it will help all of us hit bigger, more often...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#11
09-24-2009, 05:34 AM
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#12
09-24-2009, 06:09 AM
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First, the plays that have the highest probability of winning, (and hence lower price winners within), will virtually ALWAYS be covered in the mutli-ticket approach, (and ideally will be played for more than $1 or $2 base amounts). But then, more sequence combinations that feature outrageous prices within will be covered when they might not be in simple 'caveman' tickets. That will produce overlay returns. And because my plays regularly may leave out 1st, 2nd and/or 3rd choices in legs in favor of 'crazier' horses, the multi-ticket approach should catch many more of the 'middle' price P4's I frequently have missed.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#13
09-24-2009, 06:14 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#14
09-24-2009, 07:41 AM
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This is a new approach, so I think I'll let Steve do the work and fine-tune his method. I might even learn something.... 
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