10/1: BEL (2nd-9th); OSA ($87k C/O)

Kasept · #1 10-01-2009, 08:21 AM

Racing was as good as anticipated Wednesday, but it didn't exactly offset the chalkfest at Belmont which was followed by excruciating big odds 2nd place finishes at Oak Tree. The Santa Anita season started out for me with a head bob photo beat of 16-1 Royal F J (Best Value 2nd choice) in the 6th, and a neck loss by 30-1 Best Value top tab Double Dip in the 7th. Brutal... The upside was the $16.40/$8.20 and $21.60/$10.60 PL-SH prices respectively if you bet either ATB. (I hope some of you did, because I needed wins to cash...)

After fave California Flag won the Gr. III Morvich, a bonus mutuel finally got up at Arcadia, and what a bonus mutuel it was: 78-1 Spartan Jet. The $157 winner tripped a $15,700 P4 ($1), $37,600 P6 conso and $47,900 P5 payout, as well as Thursday's $32,600 Super High 5 and $87k P6 carryovers. Will not get to Santa Anita selections until later today, but I did look at Belmont from early on Thursday. Hope you did well yesterday!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

2nd: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Unrivaled Belle 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #7 Uno Peso 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Spina 5-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Powder Princess 8-1 4th

3rd: Quick Mischief, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Spritely 7-5 WON
Best Value: #1 Newport Harbour 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Sea Chanter 8-5 2nd

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #7 Reading Group 6-1 5th
Most Likely: #1 Quick Money 1-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Rapide One 10-1 2nd

5th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Stellaluce 5-2 WON
Next Best: #2 Freud's Notebook 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Up Up Away 8-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Lady Apple 12-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 3-4-7-8 ($2) 1-2-5-6 ($1)
3: 4
4: 1-5-7
5: 2-4

$3 Leg A includes: 4x1x3x2 = 24 x $2 = $48
$1 Leg A includes: 4x1x3x2 = $24

Total: $48 + $24 = $72

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Whirling Thunder 5-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Veritable 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Smart Enuf 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Cardiff Road 4-1 3rd

7th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very tough group to decipher..

Most Likely: #2 Le Royale 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Dixie Frolic 12-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Sao Sebah 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Late SCR

8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)

Love to see the great T. D. Vance back on the field of battle..

Most Likely: #5 Our Friend Harvey 4-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Quietly Mine 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 T. D. Vance 4-1 WON

9th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #8 Miss Stilleto 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 Vivi's Book 5-2 6th
Next Best: #4 Cagey Girl 8-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Paraiba 10-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-8
7: 2-6-7-9-(10/SCR)
8: 5
9: 2-3-4-8-10

3x5x1x5 = $75

OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Sunny Peace 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Enlightened Lady 8-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Soldier Betty 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Recess 7-2 WON

4th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Soupy 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Surf Town 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Yes It's a Cat 3-1 WON
Super Add: #8 Nima's Pad 15-1 5th

5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Hot Summer Breeze 6-5 WON
Best Value: #4 A Clever Ten 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Flash Dance 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Daniella Roth 8-1 4th

6th: S/ALW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Peacenik 5-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Winter Camp 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Towser 20-1 7th
Super Add: #3 At the Front 5-1 DNF

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Exquisite 9-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Percia Fina 8-1 6th
Next Best: #7 April Pride 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Bel Air Sizzle 3-1 2nd

8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #9 Annie's Loaded 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #10 Skim Milk 6-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Greek Advantage 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Tribal Fire 9-2 5th
High 5 Play: #11 September Soul 6-1 11th

$200 P6 Play:

3: 1
4: 1-3-4
5: 1-4
6: 1-5
7: 1-5-7-8
8: 9-10

1x3x2x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$200 TicketMaker Multi-Ticket Plays:

1 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $8.00

2 $2.00 pick 6: 1,5 with 4 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $8.00
3 $2.00 pick 6: 1,5 with 1,3 with 4 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $16.00
4 $2.00 pick 6: 1,5 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 1,7 with 9 $32.00
5 $2.00 pick 6: 1,5 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 10 $16.00
6 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 4 with 4 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $4.00
7 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 4 with 1 with 1,5 with 1,7 with 9 $8.00
8 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 4 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 10 $4.00
9 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 4 with 1,5 with 1,7 with 9 $16.00
10 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 4 with 1,5 with 5 with 10 $8.00
11 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 1,7 with 10 $16.00

12 $2.00 pick 6: 2 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $8.00
13 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 5,7,8 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $12.00
14 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 6 with 1,5 with 5 with 9 $8.00
15 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 1 with 2,3 with 5 with 9 $8.00
16 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 8 with 9 $8.00
17 $2.00 pick 6: 3 with 1,3 with 1 with 1,5 with 5 with 3,6 $16.00

Total: $196.00

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-4
6: 1-2-5
7: 1-5-7-8
8: 8-9-10

2x3x4x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Kasept · #2 10-01-2009, 11:10 AM

BEL SCR'S

1ST

5 Headache Early

3RD

3 Fascinatin' RhythmEarly

4TH

1A In Te Domine Early OFF TURF
4 I'm Hooked Up Early

7TH

5 Seattle Brew Early
11 Royal Lord Early
12 Tigresco Early

8TH

2 Atticus Kristy Early NO SUPERFECTA
7 Hugo Early

9TH

11 Driven by Seattle Early

pointman · #3 10-01-2009, 01:15 PM

Early Belmont play split with pmac:

$120
2- 1,3,4,7,8
3- 4,6
4- 1,5,7
5- 2,3,4,11

$3 - $24
2- 1,3
3- 4,6
4- 1,7
5- 4

Good Luck!

Ronnie · #4 10-01-2009, 01:43 PM

Looks like someone dumped some early money on Spritely in Bel 3rd.

pointman · #5 10-01-2009, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronnie

Looks like someone dumped some early money on Spritely in Bel 3rd.

Ludicrous, the 6 has just as good a chance to win this race as does the 4 and at the current 8-1 is a huge overlay.

jms62 · #6 10-01-2009, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pointman

Ludicrous, the 6 has just as good a chance to win this race as does the 4 and at the current 8-1 is a huge overlay.

Shhhhh!!!! Someone may hear you and take this opp away...

pointman · #7 10-01-2009, 03:24 PM

Late Belmont stab split with pmac:

6- 2,5,8
7- 1,2,4
8- 4,5,6
9- 3,5,8,10

Good Luck!

knickslions2 · #8 10-01-2009, 04:24 PM

Take a stab here in the 8th

$4 tri

6/3,4,5/3,4,5

jefff777 · #9 10-01-2009, 06:03 PM

Vivi's Book was given no chance today. Too bad.

the_fat_man · #10 10-01-2009, 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jefff777

Vivi's Book was given no chance today. Too bad.

Damn; I've misplaced my 'TRIPS' file, too. Should I do a system search so I can add this one to it? I mean, 2:1 shots that don't run are always the best next time out bets.

herkhorse · #11 10-01-2009, 07:53 PM

I know you all hate redboarding, and I ain't bitchin' but damn.
I was 4 deep in the race I missed.

71873730624051 OSA #3 $2 Pick-6 2,5,WT,1,4,WT,1,WT,1,7,WT,2,3,7,8,WT,1,9,10 <none> $ 192.00 $ 3,281.60 +

herkhorse · #12 10-01-2009, 08:08 PM

820.00 for 5 of 6 X 4

3kings · #13 10-01-2009, 08:25 PM

Great Job Tom,
Frustrating to have such good opinions and not take down the big prize. Congrats on a strong 5 of 6.

Bogey · #14 10-01-2009, 09:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I know you all hate redboarding, and I ain't bitchin' but damn.
I was 4 deep in the race I missed.

71873730624051 OSA #3 $2 Pick-6 2,5,WT,1,4,WT,1,WT,1,7,WT,2,3,7,8,WT,1,9,10 <none> $ 192.00 $ 3,281.60 +

Tom, great run.

herkhorse · #15 10-02-2009, 07:04 AM

Tom, Gus, Thanks. Still can't believe no one took it down yesterday. There were no real big prices. If I had only compared my picks to Steve's, I may have thrown in his most likely winner in the 7th.