10/22: Keeneland ($33k C/O)

Kasept · #1 10-22-2009, 07:48 AM

Talked up but then abandoned Boxitup in Belmont 5th Wednesday, a move that cost an opportunity to be P6 live going into the nightcap. Third choice won that quashing P4 play and conso try, and despite rather chalky result, still felt like I missed a quality opportunity to hit. Hope you did well with the other solid results.

Keeneland P6 clicked up another 50% to $33k for Thursday, but still might not be that approachable given the consistently quirky Lexington outcomes. Thoughts below, but with insanely deep G3 Sycamore in the mix, P3/P4 plays may be the prudent call. Featured Knickerbocker (G3) at Belmont looks like Proudibnsky's race to lose, but there are some pricey exotics players to consider. One interesting price at NY as well today...

KEENELAND

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Workingontherailroad 1-1 WON
Best Value: #3 Cabazon 10-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Twisting Road 6-1 4th
Super Add: #11 Six Shots 6-1 2nd

5th: ALW/C, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Starfish Bay 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Dashel 10-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Brezing Rain 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 She's Extreme 12-1 10th

6th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very confusing group.. Will take flyer that Agastache gets easy early lead and keeps going..

Best Value: #1 Agastache 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #6 Quietly Mine 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Vicarian 4-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Free Brave 7-2 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Afleet Maggi 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Encore Saritta 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Attempt to Name 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Lunar Mist 12-1 8th

8th: 15th Sycamore (G3), 3+, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Thoroughly entertaining race.. Use some prices..

Best Value: #11 Gentleman Chester 8-1
Most Likely: #9 Cloudy's Knight 3-1 WON
Next Best: #12 Winchester 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Tiger Woodman 20-1

9th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #6 Turwada 7-2 7th
Best Value: #10 Drink With Pride 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Mort's Legacy 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 SCR
High 5 Play: #11 Hang 'Em 20-1 11th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-3
5: 2-3
6: 1-6
7: 1-4
8: 9-11-12
9: 6-10

2x2x2x2x3x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: ALL
7: 1-4
8: 5-8-9-11-12
9: 6-10

7x2x5x2 = 140 x .50 = $70

BELMONT -- SPOT PLAY

5th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

BEST VALUE: #9 TEMPEST STORM 12-1: Contessa-Winning Move filly looks overlaid at number as she circles back towards best efforts mid-summer which came over this strip. Expect performance worth keying around.. 3rd
Most Likely: #8 Granted Tiger 3-1 4th
Next Best: #2 West Ocean 8-1 WON
Super Add: #1 More to the Story 9-2 6th

Good luck!
Steve

Kasept · #2 10-22-2009, 02:40 PM

43-1 winner at Belmont The Mailet provides Rock Hard Ten with his 2nd 'first time turf' winner in 6 visitors to the green (33%).. Keep an eye on this as there was NO TURF support from her siblings. As a son of Kris S., Rock Hard Ten delivering turf aptitude isn't a shock, but I doubt many people will immediately associate him as a turf influence yet and you could benefit here early on as his babies try it...

Kasept · #3 10-22-2009, 03:35 PM

BEL 6: Appealing 6-1 on Jacoby's Run... Squashed like bug. Pace victim.

Kasept · #4 10-22-2009, 03:42 PM

KEE 6: Would love to get through here. This race got more confusing the more I looked at it..

57rick · #5 10-22-2009, 03:44 PM

Nice!!!

Kasept · #6 10-22-2009, 03:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 57rick

Nice!!!

How 'bout that?! And 8-1 to boot!!

Scav · #7 10-22-2009, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Very confusing group.. Will take flyer that Agastache gets easy early lead and keeps going..

Best Value: #1 Agastache 5-1
Most Likely: #6 Quietly Mine 5-2
Next Best: #4 Vicarian 4-1
Super Add: #2 Free Brave 7-2

Here is a perfect reason why Thorograph is just magnificient. Agastache had a really good number (and race for that matter) over the Keeneland strip way back when, gets back to Keeneland and romps.

Great hit Steve

alphanumeric1 · #8 10-22-2009, 03:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

KEE 6: Would love to get through here. This race got more confusing the more I looked at it..

Congrats...you got there! Cold 1-6 Exacta pays $75.60

Clip-Clop · #9 10-22-2009, 03:49 PM

Thank you VERY much for this one. Preferred the 5 over the two so this went really well.

Kasept · #10 10-22-2009, 03:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

Here is a perfect reason why Thorograph is just magnificient. Agastache had a really good number (and race for that matter) over the Keeneland strip way back when, gets back to Keeneland and romps.

Great hit Steve

Thx Tom... But while in possession of some good numbers, Agastache wasn't 'sheet faster' than most in here... As I suggested, he was most appealing as a pace play. There was no one to go out with him, and even on the synthetic, lone speed at 6.5-7f is deadly. Andy Serling taught me that...

Scav · #11 10-22-2009, 03:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

Thx Tom... But while in possession of some good numbers, Agastache wasn't 'sheet faster' than most in here... As I suggested, he was most appealing as a pace play. There was no one to go out with him, and even on the synthetic, lone speed at 6.5-7f is deadly. Andy Serling taught me that...

I didn't necessarily mean that, but for me, he was a use based on his back 'number'/performance over the 'like' surface, can find a winner many ways I guess

Note: I just looked again and the race was at Turfway, but he hasn't been back to poly since..

Kasept · #12 10-22-2009, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Clip-Clop

Thank you VERY much for this one. Preferred the 5 over the two so this went really well.

'welcome...

2MinsToPost · #13 10-22-2009, 10:28 PM

It was a fun day at Keeneland. Weather held up great, wow alot more people there then I certainly expected, and some good racing. I really am growing to love this place, except for the racing surface.