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#1
10-25-2009, 07:13 AM
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10/25: Keeneland ($254k C/O); Belmont (Closing Day P4)
Keeneland P6 pool continues to overflow after $29, $32 and $48 winners derailed tickets, resulting in Sunday's $254,603 jackpot. The good news on the day was pointing out Rahystrada ($32 as Race 8 Best Value 2nd choice) and Satans Quick Chick ($48.80 as Raven Run Best Value 2nd choice) who combined for a $218 Double; a $781 P3 with 7th race top tab Heart Butte; and a $982 P3 with nightcap High 5 Player Striking Dancer. I had Striking Dancer just off the $72 3x4x3x4 .50 P4 ticket, but those that may have smartly included McPeek's runoff winner received a $3,036 payoff. Hope you did well!
KEENELAND POST-SCRATCHES 4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Richland Creek 7-2 6th Best Value: #10 Cape San Blas 8-1 WON Next Best: #7 King of Speed 6-1 3rd Super Add: #8 U D Ghetto 12-1 9th 5th: CLM, F*M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #11 Aronia 7-2 3rd-DH Best Value: #1 Star Over Malibu 10-1 9th Next Best: #3 Salty Wave 5-1 7th Super Add: #8 Daguerreotype 6-1 11th 6th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Very difficult group to decipher.. Most Likely: #1 Medjool 5-2 4th Best Value: #5 My Happiness 5-1 3rd Next Best: #4 Quite a Handful 3-1 2nd Super Add: #6 Jacks Again 5-1 6th 7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #11 Donna Getyourgun 5-2 WON Best Value: #6 La Gran Bailadora 12-1 11th Next Best: #9 Baby Sister 5-1 2nd Super Add: #7 Aregulationhottie 10-1 6th 8th: 18th Dowager (L), F&M-3+, 12f-T (DD, Super) Most Likely: #1 Winter View 4-1 2nd Next Best: #11 Black Mamba 8-5 WON Best Value: #2 Caprice 8-1 4th Super Add: #9 SCR 9th: CLM, 3yo, 7f (Super, Super High 5) Best Value: #11 Runway West 5-1 5th Most Likely: #2 Hot Escapade 5-2 WON Next Best: #10 Shanes Gold 6-1 2nd Exotics Use: #5 Devil Approved It 7-2 3rd High 5 Play: #6 Pound the Rock 15-1 6th <$200 P6 Play: 4: 2-7-8-10 5: 1-3-11 6: 1-5 7: 6-11 8: 1-11 9: 11 4x3x2x2x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$75 P4 Play: 6: 1-3-4-5-6 7: 1-6-7-9-11 8: 1-2-11 9: 2-11 5x5x3x2 = 150 x .50 = $75 $0.50 Pick 4 Paid $88.50 BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 6th: The Vision, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD) Compelled to play against 3-1 ML fave #9 Krypton who will be looking to go coast to coast.. Most Likely: #5 Dean's Kitten 7-2 WON Best Value: #7 Shrimp Dancer 15-1 3rd Next Best: #3 Imaging 4-1 2nd Exotics Use: #8 Mr. Vegas 10-1 8th $1 Exacta (5-3) Paid $29.25 $1 Trifecta (5-3-7) Paid $346.00 7th: 29th Ticonderoga-NYB, F&M-3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super) Familiar competitors line up here in what is always an insanely well-matched group.. Most Likely: #5 You Go West Girl 4-1 WON Best Value: #7 Love Cove 5-1 2nd Next Best: #4 Nehantic Cat 3-1 3rd Super Add: #2 Chestoria 4-1 4th $1 Exacta (5-7) Paid $57.50 $1 Trifecta (5-7-4) Paid $163.00 $1 Daily Double (5-5) Paid $51.00 $1 Superfecta (5-7-4-2) Paid $388.00 8th: The Wings of Jove, 2yo-F, 6f (DD) Best Value: #1 Magic Appeal 5-1 2nd Most Likely: #3 Female Drama 5-2 WON Next Best: #7 Simply Spiteful 7-2 3rd $1 Exacta (3-1) Paid $10.10 $1 Trifecta (3-1-7) Paid $31.50 9th: 31st Mohawk-NYB, 3+, 9f-T (Super) Most Likely: #10 Banrock 7-5 WON Best Value: #12 My Man Lars 12-1 5th Next Best: #1 Hangingbyathread 8-1 6th Super Add: #4 Pennington 7-2 4th <$75 P4 Play: 6: 1-3-5-7-8-9 7: 2-4-5-7 8: 1 9: 1-10-12 6x4x1x3 = $72 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 10-25-2009 at 04:25 PM. 
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#2
10-25-2009, 09:34 AM
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I don't like Black Mamba at all today, that turf is gonna have some give in it and I wouldn't be surprised if they scratch. Her race at Arlington was putrid (softer ground). Thinks she needs California firm for her to be her best
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#3
10-25-2009, 10:02 AM
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1st - $50000 D/D 8 with all
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#4
10-25-2009, 10:30 AM
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BEL SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp FAST/SOFT 6TH 2B Fenway Faithful Early 3X Precipice Trail Early 6 Thunder Brew Early 10 Navy Lieutenant Early 7TH 9 Raffie's Treasure Early 14 Nedjma Early 15 Vivi's Book Early 8TH 6 Romantic Hideaway Early NO SUPERFECTA 9TH 1A Pegasian Early 13 Bestowed Early 14 Dantastic Early 15 Spa City Fever Early
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
10-25-2009, 10:34 AM
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KEE SCR/CHG'S:
http://www.keeneland.com/racing/List...lItemsalt.aspx Sunday, October 25, 2009 10:00 AM The Polytrack is fast The turf course is yielding The rail is down 4th Race #2--Richland Creek-- (LA) Lasix Adjunct #4--Incalzando--SCRATCH 5th Race -- NO CHANGES 6th Race -- NO CHANGES 7th Race #5--Starlite Starbrite--SCRATCH #6--La Gran Bailadora--No hind shoes 8th Race -- Rood & Riddle Dowager -- NO CHANGES 9th Race #7--Century Gold--Jockey change to Chris Emigh
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
10-25-2009, 11:15 AM
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My initial observation is the same as yours, but I'm not ready to completely leave her off my ticket yet. The Scavulator is smoking on this one. I can't remember making more changes to my tickets in the hours leading up to the races as I have today.
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#7
10-25-2009, 11:30 AM
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#9
10-25-2009, 11:46 AM
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 That 11 horse in the race before is a potential single. For an Ian Wilkes horse to run like that first out, well, that horse could explode today. His horses are NEVER cranked first out, never, and always show a 5th beaten 7 lengths first line.
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#10
10-25-2009, 11:57 AM
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#12
10-25-2009, 03:18 PM
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#13
10-25-2009, 03:47 PM
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#14
10-25-2009, 05:46 PM
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I never bet based on others selections, but your point on running so well first time out for a trainer that usually doesn't have them ready was an angle I had not thought of and helped me cash. Thank you.
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