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#1
12-10-2009, 11:10 AM
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12/10: Hollywood (3rd-8th)
Hollywood carryover was chalk-filled, and I failed to adjust to two scratches which impacted the two races I missed in the play (3rd & 7th). While the $1,364 payout wasn't anything life-changing, you have to put yourself in the best position to capitalize on opportunities, and my poor ticket was a waste of $224 as a result. Not having You Can Dream and Usurp on the ticket after the scratches of Southern Orchid and Mighty Joe has no reasonable excuse. And having them puts you in the hunt for a big reward had any of a number of price horses jumped up somewhere and won. Did have some tri/super hits that defrayed day's multi-race blunder. Hope you did OK.
HOLLYWOOD POST-SCRATCHES 3rd: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #3 Crisp 5-2 WON Best Value: #4 Empire Spring 3-1 3rd Next Best: #6 Fashion Trend 8-5 2nd 4th: CLM, 3yo, 7.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #5 Final Journey 3-1 6th Best Value: #6 Remus 6-1 WON Next Best: #2 Green Card James 5-1 2nd Super Add: #3 Barney Bass 5-1 5th 5th: Cal-bred MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #9 Hot Damon 9-5 2nd Best Value: #1 Bernsie's Baby 10-1 6th Next Best: #3 Checkmark 5-2 3rd Super Add: #8 Next of Kendra 6-1 WON 6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #2 Swiss Blend 4-1 WON Next Best: #11 Misty Aly 3-1 2nd Best Value: #8 Cape Moonlight 10-1 7th Super Add: #5 Dona Mary 15-1 3rd 7th: S/ALW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (DD) Most Likely: #5 Tenacious Tina 8-5 WON Next Best: #4 Seedless 5-2 3rd Best Value: #3 Jocata 3-1 2nd 8th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5) Most Likely: #7 Madame Striker 2-1 4th Best Value: #1 Warren's Sweetheart 8-1 2nd Next Best: #4 Foxy Approval 4-1 2nd Exotics Use: #8 Daniella Roth 6-1 WON High 5 Play: #6 Lava Flow 20-1 6th <$75 P4 Play: 5: 1-3-9 6: 2-11 7: 3-4-5 8: 1-4-7-8 3x2x3x4 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 12-10-2009 at 08:12 PM. 
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#2
12-10-2009, 01:19 PM
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I handicapped today's Hollywood card as well, primarily to be prepared for the pk 6 if we would have had another carryover.
Since that's not the case, I'm just putting in a little pick 4 ticket. It could be another very chalky day. 5th - Going deep here, only to scrounge for any possible value that might exist in this pk 4 sequence. Hot Damon could win for fun, but under-achieving as the chalk last out and an uneventful barn change is enough to fish for prices. 9 - Hot Damon 3 -Checkmark 1 - Bernsie's Baby 6 - Absolutlypositivly SCRATCHED 5 - Raymanjjohnsonjr 2 - Soul Candy 6th Not sure what was amiss with the 6 horse Truthy this fall, but felt compelled to include her, hoping blinkers, cut back in distance, barn change and 3 promising works help turn things around. After all, these are 8K claimers. Anything is possible. 2 - Swiss Blend 11 - Misty Aly 1 - Haven's Lake 6 - Truthy 7th - Singling the 5. A couple others figure, but Jocata shouldn't even be eligible for this level. She only won her debut after a Mitchell maiden tragically went down as she was coasting to the finish line as the sure winner. 5 - Tenacious Tina 8th - Relucantly including the 7, Madame Striker, assuming she had a valid excuse in last race, her first after a year on the shelf. With no works since last race on Nov. 20, you have to be leary of her ability to win this with prior history of layoffs and declining form. 3 - Smartysideup SCRATCHED 7 - Madame Striker Edited with Scratches: 5x4x1x1 = $20 Good luck. Last edited by lemoncrush : 12-10-2009 at 05:26 PM.
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#4
12-10-2009, 03:25 PM
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Quote:
if Madame Striker isn't right, it's a total crap shoot.
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#6
12-10-2009, 04:58 PM
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late P4
changing up a bit - 2,3,7,9//1,2,10,11//5//4,7 32.00 Last edited by Rudeboyelvis : 12-10-2009 at 05:28 PM.
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#11
12-10-2009, 08:13 PM
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Good god, did I blow this P4 today. Paid an insane $558. Don't know why I didn't go ahead and single in that nothing feature.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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