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#1
08-18-2006, 04:45 PM
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Thoughts I Want To Share / Your Opinions?
Why is it that some people always want to trash a race? For example, it seems that everyone wants to bash why this horse, say horse x, should have won easily over a field. Why is it necessary to focus on the horses that got beat versus focusing on the horse that won? He/She beat a crap field, junk, claimers at best. That horse should have never won, what a joke.
My thought on this is this. I was talking just now on the phone to a buddy of mine who trains here at Beulah Park and sends horses to Thistle, River etc as well. So if you wanna bash this guy because he sends out horses to these bottom rung tracks, save it for someplace else cause you have beat that drum already. He is my friend, and I respect this man who is in his 70's and loves his horses under his care. He is my friend. Anyways, he brought up a point that he has said time and time again. He says Curt, when they load them in the gate you don't know what that horse truly feels like. When they open that gate you don't know. They give you subtle signs, and you can tell when something is not right, but many a time a horse just is not a machine that gamblers make them out to be. Always remember, he says to me, that a horse is not much different then you or I. We have good days and bad ones. Then he finally says that you can spend hours upon hours analyzing PP's and this and that until you are blue in the face. You will find a gem in the rough, and you will score many a great hit. But what those PP's and other things don't tell you is the most important handicapping tool you can use. How does that horse feel today. I am trying to be a dilligent Post Parade wacher, but when you are betting Pick 3's you can't. Your thoughts? 
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#2
08-18-2006, 04:53 PM
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To sum up, I think sometimes that people put too much into PP's and overanalyze a Race. I think I'll just glane, look over a few numbers, and slam it together from here on out. If I spend more then 15/20 minutes on a race I get a headache anyways. I would rather watch the Food Channel, Golf, or The History Channel then spend an entire night going thru PP's.
Am I off base here? Am I alone in this thinking? Is all that booze I have been drinking killing my brain cells? 
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#3
08-18-2006, 04:54 PM
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Your friend gave you some sound advice. Nobody knows how a horse is going to "feel" from day to day. The only thing I'd add (and it won't work for P3's and more) is to go to the paddock between each race. Post parades won't show you nearly as much. Hope this helps. DTS
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#5
08-18-2006, 04:56 PM
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#6
08-18-2006, 04:59 PM
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I am really po'ed. It is raining now. Not lookin good right now.
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#7
08-18-2006, 05:05 PM
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That was a copy and paste from the 2007 USGA Decisions Book.
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#8
08-18-2006, 05:10 PM
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Rain is movin on. Might be alright. Curt needs a fix.
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#9
08-18-2006, 05:12 PM
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slow down drinking, please....it's too early to be Posting Under the Influence. 
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#11
08-18-2006, 05:17 PM
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 I am cool Kev, all good. Oh man, Tiger busted up that shot just now. I was hoping he would be alright and make it fun. See what happens.
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#12
08-18-2006, 05:18 PM
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Curt,
I agree with your friend. That's why it irks me when people refer to a horse (Bernardini for example) as a "machine." Bernardini may be training great, but if he's not 100% when he enters that gate, then he won't win. I always do better looking at them in the paddock and post parade then anything else. I've only been burned a few times by guessing wrong (Bluegrass Cat in the Haskell... he was WASHED OUT big time, but still won with ease.)
__________________
http://www.facebook.com/cajungator26
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#13
08-18-2006, 05:25 PM
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Kevin
bet with caution Northern Catch in the 2nd
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#14
08-18-2006, 05:57 PM
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There's numerous reasons why a horse won't win, but you are also rewarded for those reasons through the mutual pool. I love the sport and I like to bet, I have had my best year ever this through the windows, but I have not placed a bet since the first weekend of Saratoga. I have had several very large unexpected bills to pay recently and I paid those off with the winnings, but I am not dipping into savings to play, so I'll sit out and get ready for the Breeders Cup. I want to have a bankroll of about $2000 for the BC, so I'll wait. I guess I am lucky, some people need the "fix" or "juice", I have never said either of those words, I don't look down on somebody that does, because I believe people get addicted to the rush of gambling. My dad always said there's nothing wrong with gambling, if you do it for fun, he always said we never went without, because of his gambling and that's true.
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#15
08-18-2006, 06:31 PM
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Your dad was right. Mine just said, don't gamble more than you can afford to lose, whether it's stocks, horses, poker or anything that takes risk. And remember, without risk, there is no gain.
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