1/23: GP (P4); FG (Stakes)

[Kasept]

Encouraging day Friday despite some beats as I at least started to find the range a bit for the first time in 2+ weeks. There were more insane winners at Aqueduct as part of the action, with photographs the difference separating 43-1 Even Frisky from 3-1 Citizen Bailey in the 4th and 23-1 Living Out a Dream from 1-1 Crazy Charlie in the 5th. That $935.50 Daily Double helped trigger today's brutal $118k double C/O, which commences with the 4th race where Dee Tee Stables launches the career of our LLOYDOBLER.

Elsewhere at the Big A Friday, 'Best Value' third choice Hello Gold ($17.60) was lucky to beat 3-2 'Most Likely' Badgette in the 6th, but when Western Decision came third at 33-1, a pudgy $345.50 triple was there to be had. And at Gulfstream, you would have scratched into the $400 P4 using Keeping the Honor (put up via DQ) when Cenzontle came out of the nightcap. Hope you did well Friday and are ready for a big day of racing coast to coast highlighted by the Derby Trail launchers at Gulfstream (Holy Bull) and Fair Grounds (Lecomte)!


GULFSTREAM PARK


PRE-SCRATCHES


7th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Mine N Gems 3-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Six Clicks 5-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Miner's Reserve 10-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Warrant Ofc. Cook 6-1 6th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Inner T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 (POE) In the Rough 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Miss Olivia Rae 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Take a Vow 3-1 7th
Super Add: #8 Deterrence 6-1 8th


9th: 21st Holy Bull (G3), 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Jackson Bend (5-2): Speedy LaPenta buy-in starts Derby campaign; Hasn't misfired yet.. 2nd
Best Value: #5 William's Kitten (8-1): Ramsey-Maker colt seems certain to be missed; Best came on dirt.. 3rd
Next Best: #8 Aikenite (4-1): Serious Dogwood-Pletcher number has been rock solid in every start.. 6th
Super Add: #6 Winslow Homer (6-1): A. Dutrow-R. Porter grey can factor, but is looking ahead.. WON


10th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 1m-Inner T (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Furious Run 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 History Ahead 12-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Sarah's Tiger 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Consolate 8-1 9th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5
8: 1-3-7
9: 5-6-8-9
10: 2-3-9-10

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72



FAIR GROUNDS


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: 24th Col. Bradley (G3), 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #2 Tybalt 8-1 4th
Most Likely: #4 El Caballo 2-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Get Rich Quick 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Princeville Condo 7-2 5th


7th: 64th Louisiana H., 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: Tend SCR
Most Likely: #7 Good and Lucky 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #3 Secret Getaway 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 General Quarters 6-1 2nd


8th: 18th Tiffany Lass, 3yo-F, 1m-40y (P6, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Quiet Temper 8-5 5th
Best Value: #5 Elusive Jozi 12-1 4th
Next Best: Visavis SCR
Super Add: #7 Jackpot Joanie 20-1 6th


9th: 23rd Leggio Mem., F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Lady Chace 9-2 4th
Best Value: Juliet's Spirit SCR
Next Best: #7 Trusty Temper 8-1 9th
Super Add: #5 Annihilation 6-1 WON


10th: 66th Lecomte (G3), 3yo, 1,-40y (P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Maximus Ruler (4-1): Colt commences what should be voyage back to Louisville.. 2nd
Best Value: #3 Wordly (5-1): Another Churchill-based soph that fits well here and has upside.. 5th
Next Best: Callide Valley SCR
Super Add: #5 Citrus Kid (8-1): Stamina-built LDK colt never bothered sprinting; Worth watching.. 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-3-6/SCR-7
8: 2/SCR-5-10
9: 5-7-8-10-12/SCR
10: 1-3

4x2x3x2 = 48 x .50 = $24


11th: 25th Gaudin Mem., 4+, 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Cash Refund 8-5 WON
Next Best: #2 Euroears 7-5 6th
Best Value: #4 Tempo Five 9-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Sok Sok 10-1 2nd


Good luck!
Steve

[jms62]

Derby futures on Maximus Ruler WERE available yesterday on Bodog at 125/1. They close it down on the day of Derby Preps.

[herkhorse]

Steve, regarding the pick 4 at GP yesterday. Are you saying if you had the 8 on your ticket in the nightcap, but not the 10, you have a winner?

[jefff777]

that was about a sweet as it gets for hitting a PK4! It's the payback for those missied by hair photo losses, or when the stewards rule against you when its obvious that your horse was not a fault! Nice hit! Happy for ya and anyone who had that ticket, great payout too!!! Makes me feel better about a semi-beat i took at belmont when the stewards took down my 10-1 winner in the last leg of a PK4 that would have paid 2-3k, and turned it into a $300 payout. Still had the fav in the last leg thankfully! Thanks Steve! sounds like you are warming up! GL today.

Jeff.

[atolunch]

Herk,

I think he means his 4th pick in Steve's play was the winner. If you would have gone 3 deep with Steve's play, you would have hit the P4.

Having only the 8 on your play was not a winner, as you were given the post time Favorite, which didn't win.

Hopefully that clarifies.

[herkhorse]

Yes it does, thanks atolunch

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

gl dee tee today come home safe..

Originally Posted by herkhorse

Steve, regarding the pick 4 at GP yesterday. Are you saying if you had the 8 on your ticket in the nightcap, but not the 10, you have a winner?

Originally Posted by Kasept

And at Gulfstream, you would have scratched into the $400 P4 using Keeping the Honor (put up via DQ) when Cenzontle came out of the nightcap.

The 8 in R9 at Gulfstream was a paddock scratch (not before the 6th race went off), so the only way the 10 could have got on Steve's suggested ticket was if the 10 went off as the post time favorite. This ticket would have had a $1 worth to the favorite #5 BB Frank, and .50 to the #12 Fair Weather Stan.