'09 Preps VS '10 Preps - Beyers to this point..

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Ky Derby Trail:

Cal Derby:
2010: Ranger Heartley 78
2009: Chocolate Candy 87

San Rafael:
2010: Conveyance 91
2009: The Pampelmousse 96

Pasco:
2010: Uptowncharliebrown 88
2009: Musket Man 92

Lecomte:
2010: Ron The Greek 90
2009: Friesan Fire 94

Holy Bull:
2010: Winslow Homer 91
2009: Saratoga Sinner 98

Whirlaway:
2010: Peppi Knows 86
2009: Haynesfield 90

Bob Lewis:
2010: Caracortado 98
2009: Pioneer of the Nile 98

Sam Davis:
2010: Rule 98
2009: General Quarters 102

San Vincente:
2010: Sidney's Candy 95
2009: Evita Argentina 87

Risen Star:
2010: Discreetly Mine 94
2009: Friesan Fire 97

El Camino Real Derby:
2010: Connemara 83
2009: Chocolate Candy 94

Fountain of Youth:
2010: Eskendereya 106
2009: Quality Road 113

Southwest:
2010: Conveyance 97
2009: Old Fashioned 92

Hutchenson:
2010: D' Funnybone 99
2009: Capt Candyman Can 96

Battaglia Memorial:
2010: Vow To Wager 74
2009: Proceed Bee 83

Gotham:
2010: Awesome Act 98
2009: I Want Revenge 113

Sham:
2010: Alphie's Bet 86
2009: The Pampelmousse 107

Of the 17 preps run so far - 13 have come back slower than last years edition - 3 have come back faster - and 1 has come back the same.

The largest gap is the 21 point margin in favor of the '09 edition of the Sham Stakes. The Pampelmousse ran almost 12 lengths faster than Alphie's Bet. In fact - Take The Points, 2nd beaten 6 lengths in the '09 Sham, was almost 6 lengths faster than Alphie's Bet.

The largest gap in favor of a '10 edition prep race was the 8 points Sidney's Candy has on Evita Argentina in the San Vincente.


KY oaks preps:

Santa Ysabel:
2010: Crisp 81
2009: Century Park 80

Santa Ynez:
2010: Amen Hallelujha 93
2009: Alpha Kitten 90

Las Virgenes:
2010: Blind Luck 88
2009: Stardom Bound 85

Forward Gal:
2010: Bickersons 97
2009: Frolic's Dream 90

Martha Washington:
2010: Decelerator 82
2009: Rachel Alexandra 100

Silverbulletday:
2010: Jody Slew 86
2009: War Echo 96

Davona Dale:
2010: Amen Hallelujah 100
2009: Justwhistledixie 96

Santa Anita Oaks:
2010: Crisp 82
2009: Stardom Bound 86


Of the 8 Oaks preps runs so far - 5 from 2010 have been faster.

The biggest margin is the 18 point gap Rachel Alexandra has in the Martha Washington. Afleet Deciet was 2nd beaten 8 lengths - and she ran faster in defeat than the winner of this years edition.

[Indian Charlie]

Odd.

My top two choices for this years derby have run 2 of the 3 higher than last years figure for the respective races. The other one, the horse you love, I can't stand for the derby.

I don't know what it all means, but I do think people have been a bit harsh on last years group. I thought they were a decent group overall, but the decimation from injuries made it look like a pretty weak crop.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yeah. The trio of Quality Road, I Want Revenge, and The Pampelmousse just towered over everything else.

Too bad they started dropping like flies. The Pampelmousse didn't even make the SA Derby after his killer Sham win. Quality Road won the FL Derby despite having minor feet issues going into the race - issues that became major after it. And I Want Revenge, who inherited the role as a stone cold - need to fall down to lose - cinch to win the Kentucky Derby was a morning scratch.

[Kasept]

Interesting that of the 3 'faster' races, 2 came in sprints: San Vincente and Hutch.

[johnny pinwheel]

by preps do you mean the two races they run before the derby months apart?

[Dunbar]

Good stuff, DrugS. I've been arguing elsewhere that there's good reason for the "All Others" in Pools 1 & 2 to be lower odds than other years, aside from the fact that the odds will naturally be depressed after producing 2 straight years of Derby winners.

IMO, your data shows that an All Others horse this year hasn't got to do as much to be in the thick of it compared to last year.

--Dunbar

[cmorioles]

One thing to remember is Beyer began adjusting synthetic figures last year in June. He did make them retroactive to January 1st in the PPs, but only after June 1st.

Personally, I would say the small tweaking has been a failure.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

One thing to remember is Beyer began adjusting synthetic figures last year in June. He did make them retroactive to January 1st in the PPs, but only after June 1st.

Personally, I would say the small tweaking has been a failure.

Do think pace figs and Speed figs on rubber are as significant to handicapping as they are to dirt? To be they are less useful then even turf figs.

[tector]

Thanks for the info, Drugster. This is some empirical support for what you already knew.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

One thing to remember is Beyer began adjusting synthetic figures last year in June. He did make them retroactive to January 1st in the PPs, but only after June 1st.

Personally, I would say the small tweaking has been a failure.

why?

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

why?

The goal was to bring the figures in line with dirt numbers, and it hasn't happened. It was never going to work. Figures on turf and synthetics are never going to be true speed figures, and the methods Beyer is using to try make them are too simplistic for what is a complicated task.

[Thunder Gulch]

Very interesting and not at all unexpected. A year ago some were touting the crop as one of the fastest in recent memory. Over the final month, the standouts (dirt) fell by the wayside leaving us with an opportunity for a Mine That Bird upset.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The goal was to bring the figures in line with dirt numbers, and it hasn't happened. It was never going to work. Figures on turf and synthetics are never going to be true speed figures, and the methods Beyer is using to try make them are too simplistic for what is a complicated task.

I would agree with your statement, the figures are not relative. Old time class handicappers are probably doing well though.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Yeah. The trio of Quality Road, I Want Revenge, and The Pampelmousse just towered over everything else.

Too bad they started dropping like flies. The Pampelmousse didn't even make the SA Derby after his killer Sham win. Quality Road won the FL Derby despite having minor feet issues going into the race - issues that became major after it. And I Want Revenge, who inherited the role as a stone cold - need to fall down to lose - cinch to win the Kentucky Derby was a morning scratch.

Yeah this time last year, I was all excited about the Derby.

Then because of the 2 race day scratches and, the foot problems of QR we ended up with the worst derby field since Sea Hero won in 1992.

I guess the Cali track vet knew what he/she was talking about with the tendon of The Pamplemousse.
I remember Canani being all mad and saying he was fine to run.....Well we have not seen him since.

[blackthroatedwind]

Good stats DrugS but FAR from surprising. This is not a particularly good bunch and never appeared to be.

[NTamm1215]

I'd like to see a comparison of this year's crop to 2008.

NT

[Roc525]

Cal Derby:
2010: Ranger Heartley 78
2009: Chocolate Candy 87
2008: Yankee Bravo 74

San Rafael:
2010: Conveyance 91
2009: The Pampelmousse 96
2008: El Gato Malo 98

Pasco:
2010: Uptowncharliebrown 88
2009: Musket Man 92
2008: Honey Honey Honey 80

Lecomte:
2010: Ron The Greek 90
2009: Friesan Fire 94
2008: Z Fortune 95

Holy Bull:
2010: Winslow Homer 91
2009: Saratoga Sinner 98
2008: Hey Byrn 88

Whirlaway:
2010: Peppi Knows 86
2009: Haynesfield 90
2008: Barrier Reef 94

Bob Lewis:
2010: Caracortado 98
2009: Pioneer of the Nile 98
2008: Crown of Thorns 93

Sam Davis:
2010: Rule 98
2009: General Quarters 102
2008: Fierce Wind 85

San Vincente:
2010: Sidney's Candy 95
2009: Evita Argentina 87
2008: Georgie Boy 102

Risen Star:
2010: Discreetly Mine 94
2009: Friesan Fire 97
2008: Pyro 90

El Camino Real Derby:
2010: Connemara 83
2009: Chocolate Candy 94
2008: Autism Awareness 88

Fountain of Youth:
2010: Eskendereya 106
2009: Quality Road 113
2008: Cool Coal Man 98

Southwest:
2010: Conveyance 97
2009: Old Fashioned 92
2008: Denis of Cork 96

Hutchenson:
2010: D' Funnybone 99
2009: Capt Candyman Can 96
2008: Smooth Air 95

Battaglia Memorial:
2010: Vow To Wager 74
2009: Proceed Bee 83
2008: Absolutely Cindy 89

Gotham:
2010: Awesome Act 98
2009: I Want Revenge 113
2008: Visionaire 98

Sham:
2010: Alphie's Bet 86
2009: The Pampelmousse 107
2008: Colonel John 86

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

The goal was to bring the figures in line with dirt numbers, and it hasn't happened. It was never going to work. Figures on turf and synthetics are never going to be true speed figures, and the methods Beyer is using to try make them are too simplistic for what is a complicated task.

Yet, here's someone that was at the core of the Zenyatta/Beyer numbers discussion (fiasco, might be better), arguing for the correctness of the Beyer numbers. (If only to make a point with his EUNUCH boss.) I.E. That Beyer got it right.

Hard to believe someone who actually has a brain, like you obviously do, can put out so much stupid **** when it serves your purposes.

BTW, you might want to fire up the headon of Blind Lucks' race and then try to disseminate some truth.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Yet, here's someone that was at the core of the Zenyatta/Beyer numbers discussion (fiasco, might be better), arguing for the correctness of the Beyer numbers. (If only to make a point with his EUNUCH boss.) I.E. That Beyer got it right.

Hard to believe someone who actually has a brain, like you obviously do, can put out so much stupid **** when it serves your purposes.

BTW, you might want to fire up the headon of Blind Lucks' race and then try to disseminate some truth.

I have never thought Beyers were a good indication of ability on synthetics. The post you mention was a joke for all the Beyer haters who post every big day when the top Beyer horses don't win.

I don't need to watch a head on of Blind Luck to know the pace set was that of a cheap maiden race, not a G1 for fillies.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

I don't need to watch a head on of Blind Luck to know the pace set was that of a cheap maiden race, not a G1 for fillies.

That's true. I follow your lead and watch as few replays as possible these days. However, if you watch the headon, you'll realize that she wins FOR FUN if she has room. Which makes her effort all the more impressive. So, we can 'settle' for a horse running 'well' in spite of the setup -- certainly nothing to laugh at. Or, we can see it as a horse that would've crushed the field in spite of the setup.

And seeing that she had 'trouble', I'm sure all the TROUBLE TRIP handicappers might want in on this as well. Something for everyone.