5/8: Churchill Downs ($947k P6 & $147k Hi-5 C/O's)

[Kasept]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


PRE-SCRATCHES


$947,641 P6 CARRYOVER


5th: CLM, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Berlioz 5-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Batten 6-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Gold Bells Spin 4-1 9th
Super Add: #2 Sir Jock 6-1 5th


6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Speedy Solution 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Coastal Art 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Dabossman 5-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Liquid Fire 10-1 7th


7th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Quiet by Seven 3-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Refined Silk 5-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Love That Kitten 4-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Bharat 5-1 3rd


8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Nothing more unwelcome in a big money sequence than a nickel claimer where form cycles are regularly unreliable guages of upcoming performance; Looks to me like 6 can win, so you'll have to adjust depth of your spread based on budgetary restrictions..

Most Likely: #9 Classic Emily 9-2 9th
Next Best: #8 Sun Valley Storm 4-1 WON
Exotics Use: #3 Karacuda 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Ladyofthesouth 20-1 8th


9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (DD, Super)

This should be a very good race..

Most Likely: #5 Kimmyv 5-2 WON
Best Value: #7 Millenia 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Missippi Martini 4-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Middlemarch 6-1 6th


10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

$147,055 HIGH 5 CARRYOVER

Be aware that AE-14 Bird Island (3-1) has drawn into the field..

Most Likely: #1 Groundwork 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #14 Bird Island 3-1 8th
Best Value: #7 Ghost Chapel 6-1 4th
Super Add: #12 Lode of Gold 4-1 7th
Hi-5 Play: #10 Necaise 5-1 WON; #6 Tuxedo Affair 8-1 6th


<$200 P6 Play:

5: 5
6: 5-11
7: 4-6-7-9
8: 8-9
9: 5-7
10: 1-7-14

1x2x4x2x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-6-7-9
8: 3-8-9
9: 5-7
10: 1-6-7-10-12-14

4x3x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 4 (6/8/5/10) Paid $105.30


Good luck!
Steve