Experts 0-22 on exacta

[MISTERGEE]

Of the 22 expert handicappers who listed their picks in saturdays drf not 1 mentioned first dude in their top 4 selections. So if you had boxed all their top 4 selections in exactas and tris you would have collected zero. 8 of the 22 did have LAL as their top selection. I usually like to check their picks after big racing days like this just to show what we all already know that this is not easy even for "experts". And not to redboard but to prove a point that wagering tactics can be more important than selections I keyed first dude and LAL but only in tris and collected zero also!!

[blackthroatedwind]

http://www.belmontstakes.com/blog/an...-be-deceiving/

[ninetoone]

Great call. I did the first part (betting First Dude to win), but not the 2nd part w/putting him under the 2 faves in the exacta. One day my dumb ass will learn. Thought I would have learned when I bet Gio Ponti to win & not under Zenyatta....Andy, please tell me this comes with experience...

[Hickory Hill Hoff]

I used First Dude underneath, mainly because the "Bykster" like him and FD running 2nd behind Fly Down @ Gulfstream earlier in the year. It was a last minute include though!

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

Great call. I did the first part (betting First Dude to win), but not the 2nd part w/putting him under the 2 faves in the exacta. One day my dumb ass will learn. Thought I would have learned when I bet Gio Ponti to win & not under Zenyatta....Andy, please tell me this comes with experience...

Yes, the experience of not wanting to lose because you're overly stubborn. It's not easy.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yes, the experience of not wanting to lose because you're overly stubborn. It's not easy.

If you saw the movie "Tin Cup"...that's me when gambling on horses. I love to bet to win & won't cover my horse under the favorites. Stings like yesterday are starting to break me though. Great call man.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

If you saw the movie "Tin Cup"...that's me when gambling on horses. I love to bet to win & won't cover my horse under the favorites. Stings like yesterday are starting to break me though. Great call man.

You have to get past that if you like big priced horses.

Look at it this way, if the exacta with your horse below the favorite is $40, the favorite isn't X:5.....it's 19:1 in a sense.

[MISTERGEE]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

http://www.belmontstakes.com/blog/an...-be-deceiving/

way to go. wish i played the exacta and no tris. First Dude a great example of how watching past trips helps in million $ races and 5k races as well

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You have to get past that if you like big priced horses.

Look at it this way, if the exacta with your horse below the favorite is $40, the favorite isn't X:5.....it's 19:1 in a sense.

When I was younger, I hit a couple of decent win wagers on good priced horses, and that probably set a bad tone. I think this last one finally has me convinced though. I also need to learn to back up these win bets w/a place bet probably, along with the exacta bet under the favorites.

Over the years, I've missed a few bomb exactas on the likes of such 2nd place finishers as...Bluegrass Cat (at least had Barbaro to win), Gio Ponti, and First Dude...with the common denominator being Dominguez, my favorite jock for years now. I am consistent though...I had a big win bet on him on Better Talk Now in the Breeder's Cup & that is the best feeling in the world when it hits....

Thanks for the advice.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

Of the 22 expert handicappers who listed their picks in saturdays drf not 1 mentioned first dude in their top 4 selections. So if you had boxed all their top 4 selections in exactas and tris you would have collected zero. 8 of the 22 did have LAL as their top selection. I usually like to check their picks after big racing days like this just to show what we all already know that this is not easy even for "experts". And not to redboard but to prove a point that wagering tactics can be more important than selections I keyed first dude and LAL but only in tris and collected zero also!!

I listen to the local radio racing touts (Raggy&ThoroGraph) on the weekends while I'm working on one of my projects and I have to tell you that they do their worst on a big race card, Breeders Cup to Kentucky Derby. Big racing day = close, but no cigar.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by ninetoone

When I was younger, I hit a couple of decent win wagers on good priced horses, and that probably set a bad tone. I think this last one finally has me convinced though. I also need to learn to back up these win bets w/a place bet probably, along with the exacta bet under the favorites.

Over the years, I've missed a few bomb exactas on the likes of such 2nd place finishers as...Bluegrass Cat (at least had Barbaro to win), Gio Ponti, and First Dude...with the common denominator being Dominguez, my favorite jock for years now. I am consistent though...I had a big win bet on him on Better Talk Now in the Breeder's Cup & that is the best feeling in the world when it hits....

Thanks for the advice.

It's all relative to how much you want or able to invest in a race.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

It's all relative to how much you want or able to invest in a race.

I'm betting enough to win that I could be reducing the bet by a little & covering w/exactas or place bets...as Andy said, it's more about being stubborn for me.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

It's all relative to how much you want or able to invest in a race.

I'm from the camp where I want to cash when I have a strong opinion and not win when I don't. Spreading, to me, is not having a 'strong opinion'. The more you spread, the more immune you are to prolonged losing streaks. On the other hand, losing streaks will always happen and it becomes about limiting the number of wagers, as they can quickly cut into one's bankroll.

With so many tracks presently offering racing, it should be more about finding exceptional plays and hammering them, rather than spreading to make sure that I don't miss out where I feel I have an edge.

[ninetoone]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

I'm from the camp where I want to cash when I have a strong opinion and not win when I don't. Spreading, to me, is not having a 'strong opinion'. The more you spread, the more immune you are to prolonged losing streaks. On the other hand, losing streaks will always happen and it becomes about limiting the number of wagers, as they can quickly cut into one's bankroll.

With so many tracks presently offering racing, it should be more about finding exceptional plays and hammering them, rather than spreading to make sure that I don't miss out where I feel I have an edge.

I would definitely agree with this...and I do it...I just have to learn to cover the "just in case" scenarios that will inevitably come up when I hammer my win bets (they're never on the favorite)...got a bad string of 2nd places going....

[Dunbar]

Good job, BTWind!

--Dunbar

[philcski]

Originally Posted by MISTERGEE

Of the 22 expert handicappers who listed their picks in saturdays drf not 1 mentioned first dude in their top 4 selections. So if you had boxed all their top 4 selections in exactas and tris you would have collected zero. 8 of the 22 did have LAL as their top selection. I usually like to check their picks after big racing days like this just to show what we all already know that this is not easy even for "experts". And not to redboard but to prove a point that wagering tactics can be more important than selections I keyed first dude and LAL but only in tris and collected zero also!!

Bob Neumeier (sp?) on the NBC broadcast suggested, with a $100 bankroll, a $60 win bet on Lookin at Lucky and a $20 exacta box with First Dude. I'd say that's crushing it. My hats off to him.

His partner, the immortal mush himself Battaglia, took Super Saver.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by philcski

Bob Neumeier (sp?) on the NBC broadcast suggested, with a $100 bankroll, a $60 win bet on Lookin at Lucky and a $20 exacta box with First Dude. I'd say that's crushing it. My hats off to him.. His partner, the immortal mush himself Battaglia, took Super Saver.

That's interesting because he actually never had a word to say about First Dude in the Xpressbet Preakness Wagering Guide and specifically wrote how Lookin at Lucky would be overbet. His selections (with Hurricane Ike scratched) were Schoolyard Dreams, Super Saver and Caracortado. Everyone moves on and off horses in a lead up to big races like this, so he may have warmed to Lucky as the race approached. I suspect his interest in First Dude came from the chat he had with Serling though. As for taking swipes at those who went with the Derby winner, fold in Brad Free, Marcus Hersch, Jeff Siegel and me with Battaglia.

[VOL JACK]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

http://www.belmontstakes.com/blog/an...-be-deceiving/

Not to mention the DRF Plus video analysis...that was spot on.
I love watching those...not just for Serling's opinion but, to see who auto-toss Ilman selects.
He seems like an OK guy but, does he ever select a winner???

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

That's interesting because he actually never had a word to say about First Dude in the Xpressbet Preakness Wagering Guide and specifically wrote how Lookin at Lucky would be overbet. His selections (with Hurricane Ike scratched) were Schoolyard Dreams, Super Saver and Caracortado. Everyone moves on and off horses in a lead up to big races like this, so he may have warmed to Lucky as the race approached. I suspect his interest in First Dude came from the chat he had with Serling though. As for taking swipes at those who went with the Derby winner, fold in Brad Free, Marcus Hersch, Jeff Siegel and me with Battaglia.

Oh, it wasn't a swipe. More of a commiserating laugh. I went with the Derby winner too.

Kinda interesting he went 360 on his picks, but I understand you have to submit your selections pretty early for the Xpressbet guide.

[clyde]

Ya really learn a lot about people here....you know?







juuust thayin'