7/23: Saratoga (Day 1-Schuylerville)

Kasept · #1 07-23-2010, 03:26 AM

Saratoga 2010 gleefully arrives today, and the early cards indicate that an outstanding 40 days of racing await eager players and fans. The Old Spa itself looks fabulous, as workers have furiously been preparing the 'bigger than you think' plant these last several weeks. Full fields and the RWB rules for uncoupled entries and widespread superfecta betting should provide for solid if not excellent handle figures, and as always, the pool size at Saratoga guarantees big mutuel opportunities. The early opening weekend includes our own Dee Tee Stables NY bred filly debuting Sunday in the 2nd race, which should provide for a special start to what I hope is a great meet for everyone no matter what aspect of this unique venue you enjoy.

'At the Races' coverage started Thursday live from the Carolina Barbecue Cafe patio, and today will include the 9a-12p kickoff as well as a 3-6p Internet streaming show ( LISTEN LIVE LINK ). Best wishes for a super Saratoga!

SARATOGA

PRE-SCRATCHES

4TH, 5TH, 6TH OFF THE TURF... KEEP CHECKING SCRATCH PAGE FOR LATE CHG'S...

1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Top choice owns clear edge, but look for prices to use after him; Would include #14 (AE) Mr. Vantastic (15-1) should he somehow draw in..

Most Likely: #1 Seattle Mission 2-1: Saves ground; Owns pace edge.. 3rd
Best Value: #5 Dontstealmyland 15-1: Suffolk invader; Major jock switch.. WON ($48.60)
Next Best: #6 Fortissi More 12-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Sir Dunstan 10-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (5-7) Paid $226.25
$1 Trifecta (5-7-1) Paid $953.50

2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T

First maiden race of season and start of initial P4 a doozy..

Best Value: #6 Dandyna 12-1: Howard grey threat returning to lawn bow.. 3rd
Next Best: #2 Flourish 7-2: Expect improvement from Mott-Juddmonte miss..
Exotics Use: #11 Home Rule 5-2 11th
Super Add: #12 Speak Freely 20-1 12th

3rd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Bimini 6-1: Shug adds hood; MTH try better than looks.. 4th
Next Best: #5 Bonavento 5-2: Caught late in '10 bow; Tighter today.. 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Aspire 2-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Mad for Smarty 3-1 3rd

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f OFF TURF (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely:
Best Value:
Next Best:
Super Add:

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m OFF TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely:
Best Value:
Next Best:
Super Add:

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-6-11
3: 1-4-5-6
4:
5:

3x4x = $

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f OFF TURF (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely:
Best Value:
Next Best:
Super Add:

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

First Spa baby race an open company heat with little to go on but breeding, works and connection karma..

Best Value: #1 Playing Pirates 3-1: Well bred missy lost all chance in debut.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Maria's Luck 15-1: Cesare annually pops with 2nd timers.. 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Heavenly Pride 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 With the Current 5-1 7th

8th: James Marvin, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Not sure this group stays completely intact given that many dropping in could not have expected a Gr. II caliber event when they entered; Vineyard Haven has distinguished himself on this oval at 2 and 3 and despite the overly-aggressive 3-5 ML, looms the 'tough to go against' choice here..

Most Likely: #4 Vineyard Haven 3-5 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #7 Le Grand Cru 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Discreet Treasure 12-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Flat Bold 12-1 6th

9th: 92nd Schuylerville (G3), 2yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Stopspendingmaria 3-1: Likely 1st of many TAP Spa stake scores.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Let's Get Fiscal 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Dos Lumas 12-1 5th

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (Super)

Maniacally difficult finale as gate fills to capacity of 14..

Most Likely: #9 In Just We Trust 7-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #2 Adams Circle 8-1 12th
Next Best: #4 Awesome Encore 12-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Scorch the Torch 30-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-5-8
8: 4-5-7
9: 1a/SCR-2
10: 2-4-9

4x3x2x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

The Devil · #2 07-23-2010, 06:19 AM

Toga! Toga!

XIIPointStables · #3 07-23-2010, 08:12 AM

what time are the scratches/changes announced? thanks...

the_fat_man · #4 07-23-2010, 08:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kasept

5th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1,-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Beth's Kitten 8-1: Maker a stunning 33% W's ($2.55) 2nd MDN start..

Same 'angle' applies in the 2nd, doesn't it? Why didn't you pick that one to hit the board?

joeydb · #5 07-23-2010, 08:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Devil

Toga! Toga!

The Indomitable DrugS · #6 07-23-2010, 08:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Same 'angle' applies in the 2nd, doesn't it? Why didn't you pick that one to hit the board?

I think the angle is stronger with the horse in the 5th because Maker had that horse for its debut.

In Maker's entire training career - he's never won with a first time starter in a turf route. However, since 2008 he's 7-for-16 with 2nd time starters in a turf route.

In general ... Maker sucks sh!t through a straw with debuters and does very well with 2nd timers.

Since '06 he's 10-for-133 with debuters and a pathetic $0.66 ROI on all surfaces. Over that same span he's 24-for-67 (35% and very profitable) with 2nd timers in a route race.

So Race 2 is just a good angle .. race 5 is an extreme weakness to extreme strength angle.

#7 07-23-2010, 10:00 AM

Looks like rain right up to post time.

randallscott35 · #8 07-23-2010, 10:27 AM

Are they keeping the 1st on the turf? The MTOs are still in.

VOL JACK · #9 07-23-2010, 10:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think the angle is stronger with the horse in the 5th because Maker had that horse for its debut.

In Maker's entire training career - he's never won with a first time starter in a turf route. However, since 2008 he's 7-for-16 with 2nd time starters in a turf route.

In general ... Maker sucks sh!t through a straw with debuters and does very well with 2nd timers.

Since '06 he's 10-for-133 with debuters and a pathetic $0.66 ROI on all surfaces. Over that same span he's 24-for-67 (35% and very profitable) with 2nd timers in a route race.

So Race 2 is just a good angle .. race 5 is an extreme weakness to extreme strength angle.

I would be surprised if both didn't give a really good account of themselves today...If the races stay on the turf of course.

the_fat_man · #10 07-23-2010, 10:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VOL JACK

I would be surprised if both didn't give a really good account of themselves today...If the races stay on the turf of course.

He's got the good stuff again?

Yeah, hopefully NYRA doesn't start with the off the turf **** right out of the gate.

hockey2315 · #11 07-23-2010, 10:32 AM

Le Mi Geaux is going to get a relatively clear lead in the Schuylerville now that Final Mesa is out. I thought her second start was visually impressive.

Sightseek · #12 07-23-2010, 10:37 AM

I'm curious to see how the With Distinction does today. That is a lot of money to pay for one, but he had a few in the two year old sale that worked and sold well.

I wouldn't leave out the Asmussen starter.

hockey2315 · #13 07-23-2010, 10:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I'm curious to see how the With Distinction does today. That is a lot of money to pay for one, but he had a few in the two year old sale that worked and sold well.

I found it interesting that she's with Brown instead of Violette considering what the latter's debut win % is for those owners. Not sure whether to take that as a positive or negative.

Scav · #14 07-23-2010, 11:04 AM

We bid on Another Silver Oak at the Keeneland sale. Chuck thought he was a real good looking horse, I can't find the vet report on him though, nor did I know he already debuted, he was one of the last horses I had on a list of horses to research and he was named pretty late.

NTamm1215 · #15 07-23-2010, 11:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Le Mi Geaux is going to get a relatively clear lead in the Schuylerville now that Final Mesa is out. I thought her second start was visually impressive.

I don't think Le Mi Geaux is getting the lead from Stopspendingmaria.

NT

bonniejay · #16 07-23-2010, 11:12 AM

thanks, Steve...I have placed Saratoga and Carolina Barbecue on my Bucket List. Going to the track here in Houston and playing Saratoga for the first time! Your tips will help orient me.

Bonnie in Houston