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#1
07-29-2010, 04:55 AM
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7/29: Saratoga (Day 6-$35k C/O)
Enjoyed good start to first full week of Saratoga season, catching the late P4 for a robust $923 as well as the 2 excellent P3's within the quad ($225 & $166) on the strength of including Lake George heroine Perfect Shirl ($20.60). Only Roy Lerman's Essex Ferry escaped notice on the the win end Wednesday, as I have trouble betting the retired attorney's horses (though he can win races). Hope you did well as the consistant beginning to the Spa session continued. $35k carryover a big part of the Thursday action, but the sequence, and much of the card, feels very treacherous...
SARATOGA POST-SCRATCHES 1st: Kiser Novice, 4+, 16.5f-National Fences Course (P3, DD, Super) First hurdle event of the year, and a few known commodities dot the PP's.. Most Likely: #2 Nationbuilder 4-1: Hodsdon chooses Came Home 6yo.. 4th Next Best: #4 Mabou 3-1: Voss-Ramsey 7yo improved since '09 try this race.. 6th Exotics Use: #1 Virginia Minstrel 4-1 2nd 2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #5 Sky Hosoya 9-5 WON ($3.70) Next Best: #3 R Bling 3-1 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Tensas Punch 7-2 2nd 3rd: MDN CLM, 3+, 9f (P3, DD) Most Likely: #3 High Stakes Player 3-1: Race two back good enough.. WON ($6.20) Best Value: #1e Zito entry 10-1: 1a Scuba Diver snaps back here.. 6th/7th Next Best: #4 Vision d'Amour 5-2 4th Exotics Use: #8 Justice Harlan 8-1 8th 4th: Lucy Scribner, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, NO SUPERSuper) Nice overnight. The amount of front-end interested parties makes me fearful of an off the pace threat, and the 2-1 favorite (#2 Devil by Design) appears tactical enough to rate for 'meaux.. Most Likely: #2 Devil by Design 2-1 WON ($4.30) Best Value: #1 Decelerator 6-1 6th Next Best: #5 Perfect for You 8-1 5th 5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 11f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super) $35k Carryover starts here.. How much more can you take from Ermine Slippers (3-1) beaten 6X at 6-1 or less? Most Likely: #2 Dyani 2-1: Saves ground and added distance suits well.. WON ($4.90) Best Value: #6 Cocktail Hour 12-1: Nice price on Dynaformer that may like trip.. 5th Next Best: #8 Somalia 7-2 7th Super Add: #7 Deceive 5-1 2nd <$50 P4 Play: 2: 2-3-5 3: 1-3-4 4: 2 5: 1-2-6-7-8 3x3x1x5 = $45 $1 P4 (5-3-2-2) Paid $33.25 6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Very confusing group of dime claimers, and once again here, your tickets need to consider the frustrating presence of a horse that has moved to Rudy Rod's barn (#10 D'bigcat).. Most Likely: #11 Redwood Fever 4-1 6th Next Best: #10 D'bigcat 7-2 WON ($5.20) Exotics Use: #7 Rotten to the Core 4-1 7th Super Add: #8 Awesome Preacher 10-1 4th 7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #4 System Ready Paddock SCR - Illegal shoes Next Best: #7 Peb Hughes 4-1: Not thrilled with tote on Cherokee Artist half.. 4th Exotics Use: #10 Rise to Glory 12-1 9th Super Add: #1 Bonaroo 15-1 7th 8th: Quick Call, 3yo, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #6 Beau Choix 3-1 WON ($6.80) Next Best: #7 Psychic Income 4-1 8th Exotics Use: #1 Our Douglas 5-2 7th Super Add: #4 Alfarabi 8-1 6th 9th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super) Challenging turf event for state bred fillies that appears wide open beyond the top choices.. Most Likely: #9 Chorus Music 6-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Great Gracie Dane 3-1 WON ($6.10) Best Value: #6 Freud's Notebook 12-1 8th Super Add: #4 Wild Awake 6-1 5th 10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (Super) Best Value: #7 Versailles Road 12-1: MDN win on poly good and grass last similar' Overlaid.. 4th Next Best: #5 Cherokee Speed 7-2: Hard hitter settles for placements often.. 5th Exotics Use: #1 Devon Rock 3-1 3rd Super Add: #3 Karakorum Legend 5-1 WON ($15.80) <$200 P6 Play: Not a sextet that can be easily approached.. 5: 2-6-7-8 6: 10-11 7: 4-7 8: 6-7 9: 2-9 10: 1-5-7 4x2x2x2x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192 <$75 P4 Play: Like the P6, an exceedingly slippery sequence.. 7: 4-7-10 8: 1-4-6-7 9: 2-9 10: 1-5-7 3x4x2x3 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-29-2010 at 07:01 PM. 
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#2
07-29-2010, 08:47 AM
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Nice job yesterday Steve................any chance you could look at the card at Montana Downs for me this Saturday in Great Falls? (ha!) How are you with $1600 claimers nw since 2009?
Keep it going today!!
__________________
A racehorse is an animal that can take several thousand people for a ride at the same time. ~Author Unknown
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#4
07-29-2010, 11:31 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#5
07-29-2010, 12:48 PM
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Can I just say I really enjoy the jump races. I know I'm in the minority but I really like them.
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#6
07-29-2010, 12:51 PM
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Quote:
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Linear Mode
