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#1
08-11-2010, 09:40 AM
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Who beats Zenyatta if the BC was at SA this year?
Obviously there are only 3 relevant preps for the BC Classic when it's on synthetic. They are...
California: The Goodwood New York: The Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Kentucky: The Kentucky Cup Classic Anyone with half a brain realizes that the likely "Breeders Cup Classic" winner - if male - is going to either come from out of one of those 3 races or will come from Europe. Last year, longshot Euro shipper Gitano Hernando upset the Goodwood. Mega longshot Interpretation turned back Gio Ponti to stun the Joe Hirsch. Furthest Land took the 9f Ky Cup Classic over Dubious Miss. Amazingly, not a single winner of the 3 most important preps showed up in the BC Classic. Gitano Hernando passed to point for Dubai. Interpretation passed for Japan. Furthest Land opted to cut back - and he won the BC Synthetic Dirt Mile at 21/1 next out. One of the great mystery's of all-time is why the Euro's only sent over 2 horses for the Classic. The 3yo Rip Van Winkle - and the older Twice Over. Rip Van Winkle had major health issues going into the race - and a 9th place Mine That Bird beat him by over 6 lengths. Twice Over ran 3rd despite appearing to struggle a bit with both the surface and the turns. Considering that the 1-2 finishers for the Santa Anita Handicap this year were Misremembered and Neko Bay.. and both haven't run back since. Considering that Awesome Gem won the Hollywood Gold Cup after getting dusted in stakes at Charles Town and Lone Star in his prior two starts. I know they haven't run the Pacific Classic yet ... but you can count on some terrible plodding bum from the East Coast winning that race for the 4th year in a row. I honestly have no idea why Shirreffs wanted to duck those three laughable races this year. Rail Trip might be "the highest mountain to climb" .. but his sire was an early sprinter/miler and he's out of a Carson City mare. You need a lot of stamina to stay 10fs on synthetic. Basically, Zenyatta would be a near cinch to be the top finishing American based horse if the BC Classic was run at SA again this year. 
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#2
08-11-2010, 10:08 AM
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Misremembered would likely be the only horse in this country with any chance, but he has been injured and just now working back, AND Bob is sure he is better on dirt. His Clark was OK.
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#3
08-11-2010, 10:10 AM
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The Clark sure was some race. Giant Oak was beaten 1.5 lengths and Anak Nakal was beaten 2 lengths.
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#5
08-11-2010, 10:14 AM
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Well - I think Zenyatta would probably run a well beaten 4th in the Classic this year if it was on synthetic - but like I said, she'd have no trouble beating the Americans home.
Three different unidentified Euro's would stomp her though.
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#6
08-11-2010, 10:33 AM
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I know what you are saying about lack of proven synthetic runners, but she is barely beating absolute pigs now. Nobody stepped up last year, but that doesn't make it a cinch nobody would this time around.
__________________
Do I think Charity can win? Well, I am walking around in yesterday's suit.
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#7
08-11-2010, 10:38 AM
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#8
08-11-2010, 10:40 AM
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What is up with this Zenyatta bashing? Its been 2 weeks now. Do you really have nothing better to do up in Erie? Small town like that even a clown like you has to be popular. I know they hate you at PID, but go hang out there bang some ugly chicks, do something with yourself... Register in more contests, apply for TVG, do something.
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#9
08-11-2010, 10:43 AM
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If you put her in a race like the BC Classic on syn - it's going to be a big field - and it's going to have a lot of pace in it, it's more ground to work with. That suits her a whole lot better than slower paced races at shorter distances.
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#10
08-11-2010, 10:44 AM
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#11
08-11-2010, 10:45 AM
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IC... LOL. Blame has just won 2 G1's in a row. Beating EVERYONES, including myself top horse. Misremembered ran HUGE IN THE BIG CAP. He made a big premature move and kept going. For once, your wrong. Blame is undefeated since... Your response is, not really?
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#12
08-11-2010, 10:53 AM
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Yes, Misremembered ran huge in the Big Cap by holding off Neko Bay and he lost his two prior starts to M One Rifle and Jeranimo.
Another horse who made a natural progression from age 3 to age 4. Anytime you're involved in a race where Anak Nakal finishes 5th beaten 2 lengths and Giant Oak finishes 4th beaten 1.5 lengths - unless you had an absolute world of trouble - it's no major accomplishment.
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#13
08-11-2010, 10:57 AM
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#14
08-11-2010, 11:22 AM
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The best are in Europe. Harbinger's last two races - and especially his most recent one - were out of this world. He bounced in his next workout though and his career is over. The most impressive turf performance in America this year was Chinchon in the United Nations - and he came into the race off of a 4th place finish in a 5 horse field - and a 6th place finish the race prior - those two starts both in France. On Synthetic: Zenyatta and Informed Decision may both have lost a step - but they're still a combined 26-25-0-1 lifetime on synthetic tracks... the lone loss coming by ID when making her first start off of the long layoff, in a Grade 1, without a single published workout on her form. On Dirt: Everything is up for grabs. Quality Road has two very good races (Donn and Met) and two very poor races (Hal's Hope and Whitney) - Blame has improved a little bit in each of his 3 solid stakes wins. Not sure where Musket Man's good race came from - but he was best in the Whitney. Rail Trip can take over the division if he improves on dirt as much as he figures to and if the Dutrow meds take hold. I Want Revenge had no right to run well and didn't in his return - but why isn't he eligible to move forward now? Lookin At Sucky and Concord Point are both off of two pretty nice races and 3yo's this time of year sometimes explode. Omniscent ran as fast as LAL did in his Haskell romp - he could be one of these Asmussen's that start finally getting good 5th, 6th, and 7th off the layoff and just keep marching. Redding Colliery absolutely destroyed Awesome Gem on dirt last time out - running a 111 Beyer - Kiarian freshened him and he's just worked his 3rd straight bullet. Devil May Care and Blind Luck are very good 3yo fillies. Majestic Perfection is slightly the best of a few pretty solid sprinters in America - and there's a real good one in Canada in Hollywood Hit.
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#15
08-11-2010, 11:33 AM
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I told someone last week I thought Redding Colliery could back into HOY... Crazy long shot, but a JCGC and BCC win would do it. I loved his last, and he set a track record earlier in the year. Its taking him a while to get back though, and I wonder if he is right. I think more of Lucky and Concord Point then you do... Baffert knows what he is doing and I think they are both really good 3 yr olds in a bad crop. I would expect them to both do well moving forward and facing elders. I was crazy over QR he needs to CRUSH THE WOODWARD, he needs to win it for fun then we can look at him again. I think I Want Revenge and Rail Trip suck, maybe I Want Revenge can find the right kind of group to beat, but I would give him NO CHANCE AT ALL vs Blame, Quality Road and Redding Colliery. I dont see where Rail Trip gets a win on the NYRA circuit... I cant see him beating QR in the Woodward, and I dont see him beating Blame or RC in the JCGC. The turf horses suck, and I think thats what your saying... Zenyatta IMO has not lost a step and I expect her to run huge in the Classic. I think shes a total lock to at the very least run 1-2-3, and a legit win contender, I know you disagree. Informed Decision has lost a step, and I dont think she can win the Ballerina. I hope Rachel crushed Life At Ten, because I think L@T is decent at best and has been very opportunistic beating bad HORRIBLE FIELDS. The Del Cap SUCKED. Unrivalled Belle is a joke, she beats Rachel and just continues to get popped by Todd's horses. I actually wanted UB to be good, maybe she is and just cought speed favoring tracks, who knows? Blame just keeps getting better and I really dont see who can be competitive in the JCGC unless Redding Colliery is ready and healthy. I think the sprint division is MajesticPerfections to lose, but Discreetly Mine seems to be getting REALLY GOOD.
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#16
08-11-2010, 11:35 AM
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I'm now sold on Rail Trip.
Rail Trip is my #1 rated horse in the world with Harbinger out.
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#17
08-11-2010, 11:37 AM
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The response I have come to expect from you when trying to have a real conversation about actual horses.
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#19
08-11-2010, 11:45 AM
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#20
08-11-2010, 12:06 PM
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