8/21: Saratoga (Day 26-Alabama); Arlington (Stakes P4)

[Kasept]

Chalky late action allowed for 4 straight on top Most Likely winners Friday at Saratoga, as the $73 quad covered its' expense. The score for the afternoon came in the contentious 5th race where 8-1 Persuading held off 9-1 Kittylicious to produce a gracious $184.50 ($2) exacta that I was lucky to have 2.5 times. This race showed yet again where the best opportunities lie for profit at Saratoga, as a confused public had a hard time making anyone a clear favorite. Eight of the nine runners were under 10-1 in this ALW, with these prices: $3.50, $4.80, $5.50 (2), $6.90, $7.70, $8.00, $8.90. Although Dale Romans' winner turned in a sharp effort, Gary Sciacca and Jim Crocetto's Kittylicious was actually best, and continues to improve. A frustrated Ramon Dominguez was anguished after the race for having to wait nearly three quarters of the stretch for room to run. When Kitty saw daylight, she closed the gap on the leader in half a dozen jumps before getting even with her just after the wire. Look for her to run back successfully early in the Belmont Fall Championship Meet that lies ahead... Hope you did well Friday and are excited aboutthe great Alabama, Del Mar Oaks and Arlington Million stakes cards across the country!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Very good ALW to start Alabama Day, with balanced field of within enough of every kind of pace interest to assure heat is honestly run..

Most Likely: #2 Writingonthewall 3-1: Some pressure perhaps, but his best wins here.. WON ($7.90)
Best Value: #4 Northern Giant 10-1: Turf bow, TP synth try say OK; Gomez adds appeal.. 4th
Next Best: #3 Good Prospect 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Xodo 6-1 6th


2nd: MSW, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

After an OK start, these MDN affairs are besting me regularly. Watch board for clues on pairs from Zito and Pletcher..

Most Likely: #1 Mucho Macho Man 5-2: CRC debut was good; Barn switch a negative.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Brilliant Speed 6-1: Barn excels with 2nd timers; 7f suits aptitude.. 7th
Next Best: #8 Curlinello 3-1: Full brother of Pleasant Strike shows steady worktab.. WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #7 Manhattan Man 10-1: SW half Storm Surge was fast early; Totes bullets.. 9th


3rd: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Good to Be Me 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Dirt Track Demon 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Elsie's Warrior 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Elsaroarin 3-1 2nd


4th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky $25k claimer..

Most Likely: #6 Callide Valley 3-1: Likely ouchy but working and takes drop.. WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #2 Retriever 8-1: Turns back; Note bullet and blinker addition.. 5th
Next Best: #7 Talk to Nick 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Billy One Lite 5-1 4th


5th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Recall that Arcodero dictated pace from up front in similar 7/31 event that included 2, 4 and 7 that face off here..

Most Likely: #3 African Diamond 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Two Brash 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Heart Butte 7-2 4th
Super Add: #6 Slevin 12-1 8th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3
3: 1-2-8
4: 2-4-6-7
5: 3-4-7

2x3x4x3 = $72


6th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Tall Tale Teller 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Seek to Destroy 5-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Pin Number 6-1 WON ($9.40)
Super Add: #5 Igoturback 8-1 5th


7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Into My Soul 2-1 5th
Next Best: #1 SCR
Best Value: #10 Bold Vindication 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Budget 8-1 7th


8th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Santiva 5-1: Chased in dirt debut; Spot likely suits talents.. 2nd
Best Value: #4 East of Danzig 10-1: Owns angles where Matz actually does well.. 6th
Next Best: #6 Mr. Tribute 3-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Legend of Navarone 4-1 3rd


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Contentious and somewhat strange conditional claimer that includes pair of steeplechase refugees..

Most Likely: #3 Don Balcazio 7-2: Who pressures him exactly? Can back it down.. 4th
Best Value: #4 Pagan Ruler 20-1: Broke through in last; Saves ground from just off.. 6th
Next Best: #5 Global Genius 8-1: Alternating efforts; Gets slight pilot upgrade.. 5th
Super Add: #2 Peace Fire 8-1: Goggles keeps him close; Bred to enjoy added distance.. 2nd


10th: 130th Alabama S. (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (DD, Super)

Entertaining edition of this great sophomore filly standard. May be far more wide open than just a Devil May Care-Blind Luck confrontation with deciding factor possibly coming down to matchup of Dutrow Brothers' gals..

Most Likely: #2 Devil May Care 7-5: Courageous in Derby try; CCA Oaks effort ideal prep.. 4th
Best Value: #1 Acting Happy 12-1: One-paced Siegel homebred should love trip.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 Blind Luck 8-5: Falls short without proper set up; Distance a concern? WON ($5.60)


11th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #4 Well Suited 9-2 4th
Next Best: #11 Recharged 7-2 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #6 Peat Bay 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Strolldownbroadway 7-2 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1-4-6
9: 2-3-4-5
10: 1-2-4
11: 4-11

3x4x3x2 = $72



ARLINGTON PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 79th Stars and Stripes (G3), 3+, 13f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Free Fighter 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Blushing Bear 5-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Perfect Shower 3-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Memorial Maniac 6-1 WON ($18.80)


8th: 34th Secretariat (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Defection of Two Notch Road from this allow for potential of very easy lead for Workin for Hops. Desormeaux may have to keep Paddy O'Prado closer than in last pair, but 3X GSW has shown he can adjust..

Most Likely: #1 Paddy O'Prado 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #5 Dean's Kitten 8-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Workin for Hops 5-2 3rd


9th: 21st Beverly D. (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #5 Rainbow View from this deep and balanced set.. Juddmonte surprisingly has just the 2003 version with Heat Haze to its' credit, but Bill Mott looks for 3rd Bev since 2000, and Kent Desormeaux has won the last pair!

Most Likely: #9 Treat Gently 9-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Gypsy's Warning 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Hot Cha Cha 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Acoma 8-1 7th


10th: 28th Arlington Million (G1), 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Solid if unspectacular cast for this American Turf institution, and though you need to respect Gio Ponti for what he is, you are obligated to look for alternatives..

Best Value: #10 Summit Surge 10-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Gio Ponti 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 General Quarters 8-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Tazeez 6-1 3rd


<$100 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5-8
8: 1
9: 2-3-4-9
10: 2-3-4-6-9-10

4x1x4x6 = $96


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S