10/2: Belmont Park (Gold Cup Day)

Kasept · #1 10-02-2010, 05:40 AM

Outrageously good day of racing is on tap with ramifications for Breeders' Cup fields in nearly every division. Jockey Club Gold Cup Day at Belmont with 5 Grade 1 events leads the charge, with the Goodwood, Yellow Ribbon, Norfolk and Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret all providing G1 action at Oak Tree at Hollywood. The Gold Cup/Carey help Hawthorne open their meet, while Looking at Lucky highlights the Indiana Derby which goes after the IN Oaks and Schaeffer Mile. JAnd finally, it's Jim McKay Maryland Million Day at Laurel! Enough action for you? Enjoy the day!

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

RACES 5 & 11 ARE OFF THE 'YIELDING' TURF; MAIN TRACK 'FAST'..

1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Nice start to a great day of racing. Not sure it's worth going out of your way to beat Bank Heist who is very quick. Will not get away without some front-end pressure though..

Most Likely: #7 Bank Heist 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #3 Ya Gotta Have Soul 4-1 WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #4 Cornerstone 8-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Frenchonionsoup 15-1 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 7 with 1-3-4 with 1-3-4-6-8 with All (1x3x4x5 = 60 x .10 = $6.00)

2nd: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 DRAGON FI 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Regal Prince 5-1 6th
Next Best: #3 The Roundhouse 5-2 7th
Super Add: #9 Southern Exchange 3-1 8th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 7 with 1-3-5-9 with 1-3-5-9 with All (1x4x3x7 = 84 x .10 = $8.40)

3rd: Star of Cozzene, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Great to get Jackson Bend back to the races. If he's close to 100%, he will dust these going this distance at one turn. And if he's not, Our Dark Knight will. Odd that Zito didn't opt for a 'bigger' event for one or the other of these..

Most Likely: #1e Zito entry 8-5 3rd/6th
Best Value: #4 Stormy's Majesty 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Brother Bird 7-2 5th

4th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Yikes! How did this fiasco find its' way onto the slate?

Best Value: #10 Hear Her Roar 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 My Honey Laurie 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #11 Irish Lady 5-2 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #4 Above the Call 6-1 4th

5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f OFF THE TURF (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #16 To Honor and Serve 5-2 WON ($3.60)
Next Best: #15 Admiral Perry 7-2 5th
Best Value: #14 Fair Whit 5-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Iwannaiwannaiwanna 10-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 7
3: 1 (4)
4: 3-10-11 (4-12)
5: 16 (15)

Main: 1x2x5x2 = 20 x $1 = $20
Press: 1x1x3x1 = 3 x $10 = $30

6th: 71st Vosburgh (G1), 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$23,200 P6 Carryover Starts Here..

Best Value: #9 Wildcat Brief 12-1: Three of last 4 qualify for these laurels.. 3rd
Next Best: #2 Girolamo 2-1: Needed Forego; Best career efforts this strip.. WON ($6.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Wall St. Wonder 8-1: AQU Inner specialist? Working well 2nd/break.. 8th
Super Add: #6 Snapshot 4-1: Win shy Wygod homebred pointing for this for 90 days.. 9th

7th: 33rd Flower Bowl Inv. (G1), F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Red Desire 5-2: Nippon newcomer likely to laud it over this group.. 3rd
Best Value: #7 Shared Account 6-1: Constantly developing 4yo owns soft turf form.. 5th
Next Best: #3 Changing Skies 6-1: Mott Sadler's Wells mare fires on any going.. 2nd
Super Add: #1 Gozzip Girl 12-1: Leparoux sticks; Yielding stake win this oval career best effort.. 7th

8th: 72nd Beldame (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (P3, DD)

August event lost much of its' luster with selfish, vain and gutless decision of Jess Jackson to 'take his ball and go home' by retiring Rachel Alexandra. Filly appeared in morning efforts to be moving toward her best form of the season with her prefered trip of 9 panels ahead in this race and the Breeders' Cup Distaff. The fact that concern over running Rachel Alexandra in the 'Ladies Classic' may have somehow been beneath Jackson or his perception of the filly's role as a racehorse, yet again demonstrates his complete lack of comprehension of horses, racing and its' history. By not giving Rachel Alexandra the chance to compete here or at Churchill in November, Jackson has done more to injure her overall reputation than losses in either or both of those races might have..

Most Likely: #4 Unrivaled Belle 8-5: 10/5-4-0 filly's only flaw is hyper temperment.. 2nd
Best Value: #3 Queen Martha 12-1: Biancone miss a threat with return to Lady's Secret effort.. 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Persistently 5-1: Ensign shocker developed steadily; Drilled twice post-Toga.. 3rd

9th: 34th Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Inv. (G1), 3+, 10f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Race will be run over water-logged course for second time in two years, and appears to again call out for a price horse on which to key. Patrick Biancone's French-bred invader Never On Sunday copped the Group 1 Prix d'Ispahan at Longchamp in Spring '09 over soft going and against the likes of Goldikova and Proviso. He ran respectably in his 2 North American tries at Gulfstream this winter and has been drilled 4X in the past 30 days by a masterful layoff conditioner. Pablo Fragoso wouldn't have been my first choice in the irons, but Never On Sunday was saddled with Joe Bravo in Florida and overcame that. Market starts at 12-1, and Sunday Break 5yo will save ground with cozy cover trip. The right horse, in the right place at the right time, and at the right price..

Best Value: #2 Never On Sunday 12-1: Mid-pack and rally tripper; See above.. 5th
Next Best: #7 Telling 8-1: Recall how well he ran in this last year off Sword Dancer score.. 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Paddy O'Prado 3-1: Respect too much to abandon; And note 5# age break.. 2nd
Super Add: #6 Bearpath 6-1: May not be today, but will get G1 breakthrough for Wilkes.. 9th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 2-7 with 2-6-7-9 with 2-6-7-9 with 2-4-6-7-8-9-10-11 (2x3x2x7 = 84 x .10 = $8.40)

10th: 92nd Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), 3+, 10f (DD, Super)

There seems to be little consideration for a winner in this Gold Cup other than Blame or Rail Trip, so seeking out a chaotic result may be the way to approach it. With Blame arriving in NY just 24 hours ago due to travel/weather snafus, and Rail Trip having had fits and starts in his training, there are just enough questions to look around for alternatives to their $5 totes. You can cover the top pair in the multi race wagers anyway, so why not try to get creative within the race itself? Darley's Tranquil Manner finished the Woodward running, and as a son of A.P. Indy out of the outstanding MGSW Composure (Touch Gold), only figures to relish the tenth furlong he has to work with today. Will be every bit of $30, and could be especially effective if a pace duel develops between Haynesfield and Rail Trip..

Best Value: #4 Tranquil Manner 15-1: Was running late in Woodward; Extra panel a plus.. 6th
Next Best: #2 Blame 8-5: Handled brilliantly by Stall; Has only moved forward, never back.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Rail Trip 5-2: 8/12 & never off board; 2+ months of tuning with Dutrow.. 5th
Super Add: #6 Haynesfield 8-1: Nearly perfect this surface; Big danger if left loose.. WON ($17.00)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-7
8: 1-3-4-6
9: 2-7-9
10: 2-4-8

2x4x3x3 = $72

11th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #15 Whateverittakes 5-2 WON ($7.50)
Best Value: #14 Neversaywhen 6-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Runaway Jim 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Ponte Vecchio 20-1 2nd

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 2-6-7-9
7: 2
8: 3-4
9: 2-6-7-9
10: 2-4-8
11: 15

4x1x2x4x3x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

Good luck!
Steve

Kasept · #2 10-02-2010, 07:55 AM

Races 5 & 11 Off The Turf..

Main Track-FAST..

Turf-YIELDING..

$23,200 P6 Carryover..

Gate Dancer · #3 10-02-2010, 08:51 AM

Totally agree with the choices of Wildcat Brief and Never On Sunday. Would love to single Red Desire but have questions about the soft going.

BOL to all !!!

Kasept · #4 10-02-2010, 11:18 AM

BEL SCR/CHG'S

Al Khali out of the Hirsch..

Dahoss · #5 10-02-2010, 11:29 AM

I'm with you on Never on Sunday, which means we're probably screwed...and really liked the bit about Jess Jackson's decision. I'm not sure why everyone is trying to "figure out" why she was retired. The answer is his ego and you summed it up well.