10/8 (KEE): Phoenix S. (G3), Darley Alcibiades S. (G1)

[philcski]

8TH (4:45) Phoenix S. (G3)

6 Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $175,000

1 Goldzar Lebron V 118 L
2 Greeley's Conquest Mena M 118 L
3 Wise Dan Bejarano R 116 LA
4 Wild L Corbett G W 118 LA
5 Warrior's Reward Leparoux J R 124 L
6 Moralist Sellers S J 118 LA
7 Hollywood Hit McAleney J S 122 L
8 Super Robusto Baze M C 118 LA
9 Ez Dreamer Albarado R J 118 LA
10 Rockin' Rockstar Martinez W 116 LA
11 Canonize Espinoza V 118 L



9TH (5:20) Darley Alcibiades S. (G1)

1 1/16 Miles (All Weather Track) | Fillies | 2 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $400,000

1 Poof Too Husbands P 118 LA
2 Harlan's Ruby Leparoux J R 118 LA
3 Jordy Y Alvarado J 118 LA
4 Wonderlandbynight Baird E T 118 L
5 Brushfirefairytale Goncalves L R 118
6 Wickedly Perfect Bejarano R 118 LA
7 Forest Legend Lenclud F 118 LA
8 Dos Lunas Court J K 118 L

[chucklestheclown]

Ezdreamer by a mile, wonderlandbynight by two.

[NTamm1215]

These are nice races and the card is solid.

Interesting decision to cut Warrior's Reward back to 6 furlongs. He's going to take money and will be a horrible bet in the Phoenix. Giving weight on a course that he ran poorly over last year at a distance that's at least a furlong shorter than his best is a bad idea.

I'm surprised they're staying the sprint route with him and not looking more at the Dirt Mile. He could have prepped in the Kelso and carried basically level weights with the favorites but is instead giving weight (albeit 2 lbs) to a freaky sprinter like Hollywood Hit.

Charlie Lopresti's Wise Dan is an interesting horse, I thought his Derby day race was good and the nation has become a little bit more familiar with him thanks to Here Comes Ben.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

And one of the horses from the Alcibiades will be a Grade 1 winner.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And one of the horses from the Alcibiades will be a Grade 1 winner.

The Alcibiades has accumulated quite the illustrious history since being moved to synthetics. Its winners include:

2006 - The maiden Bel Air Beauty, who went 1-7 the rest of her career and later picked up a win in the Valley View.

2007 - The maiden Country Star, who went on to win the Hollywood Starlet but needed a drop in class to allowance company to get her only win in a 3YO campaign that was tremendously disappointing.

2008 - Dream Empress, who went 0-7 afterwards with a 3rd place finish her best performance. But hey, McPeek was going to run her at Ascot!

2009 - Negligee, who effectively ruined the chances of Biofuel in the BC Juv Fillies and came back for a 3YO season which has been highlighted by...absolutely nothing. She's 0-4.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

And one of the horses from the Alcibiades will be a Grade 1 winner.

I agree, but in fairness, couldn't we say the same thing about the Spinaway, and in all likelihood, this weekend's Frizette?

[hockey2315]

I completely agree with your take on Warrior's Reward, Nick. Personally, though, I don't think he'd have any shot whatsoever in the Mile. He's just not a very good horse. It feels like he's rested on the laurels of his dream-trip Borel and mud-aided Churchill allowance win for his entire career. I know that he has won a GI since then, but it was a weak renewal of the event. With all that said, the sprint division is so incredibly weak now that he's got a better shot to hit the board there.

Fatal Bullet was an excellent single last year in this race, and ended up being a higher price than he should have been (still favored I think) because dirt horses took money. Don't have the PPs on my blackberry, but I'd guess that Hollywood Hit will probably be similarly single-worthy here.

I love betting Keeneland even though nothing that happens on that surface has any relevance the rest of the year. You can eliminate 60% of the field in a glance, and a lot of those horses are chalks. Take your PPs for a Keeneland card, cross out every horse who hasn't run on poly or turf, and then see how you do.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I agree, but in fairness, couldn't we say the same thing about the Spinaway, and in all likelihood, this weekend's Frizette?

The Frizette is soon to be cancelled and re-carded for Sunday morning at 7:30 AM on the training track. It will be dubbed the Pletcher since he has basically every quality 2YO filly eligible for the race.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The Alcibiades has accumulated quite the illustrious history since being moved to synthetics. Its winners include:

2006 - The maiden Bel Air Beauty, who went 1-7 the rest of her career and later picked up a win in the Valley View.

2007 - The maiden Country Star, who went on to win the Hollywood Starlet but needed a drop in class to allowance company to get her only win in a 3YO campaign that was tremendously disappointing.

2008 - Dream Empress, who went 0-7 afterwards with a 3rd place finish her best performance. But hey, McPeek was going to run her at Ascot!

2009 - Negligee, who effectively ruined the chances of Biofuel in the BC Juv Fillies and came back for a 3YO season which has been highlighted by...absolutely nothing. She's 0-4.

This race could be Exhibit A in what's wrong with the Graded Stakes system. In the last ten years, only Runway Model and Take Charge Lady won the Alcibiades and went on to become fillies of note.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I agree, but in fairness, couldn't we say the same thing about the Spinaway, and in all likelihood, this weekend's Frizette?

I was thinking similarly....but at least those are Graded horses. The Alcibiades field is really awful.

[Linny]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

This race could be Exhibit A in what's wrong with the Graded Stakes system. In the last ten years, only Runway Model and Take Charge Lady won the Alcibiades and went on to become fillies of note.

KEE has been the beneficiary of "grade creep" for years. Remember when the Oak Tree Mile was sending out BC winner/runners-up in droves and the Shadwell Mile got an upgrade?

So few barns run their serious horses before September of their 2yo season (and when they do run it's very infrequent) that we should look at the Euro model of only calling late season destination races G1.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Linny

KEE has been the beneficiary of "grade creep" for years. Remember when the Oak Tree Mile was sending out BC winner/runners-up in droves and the Shadwell Mile got an upgrade?

So few barns run their serious horses before September of their 2yo season (and when they do run it's very infrequent) that we should look at the Euro model of only calling late season destination races G1.

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks this. There are several races at KEE that deserve to be downgraded that haven't been. Alcibiades included.

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by philcski

Glad I'm not the only one who thinks this. There are several races at KEE that deserve to be downgraded that haven't been. Alcibiades included.

You don't like the 4?

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The Alcibiades has accumulated quite the illustrious history since being moved to synthetics. Its winners include:

2006 - The maiden Bel Air Beauty, who went 1-7 the rest of her career and later picked up a win in the Valley View.

2007 - The maiden Country Star, who went on to win the Hollywood Starlet but needed a drop in class to allowance company to get her only win in a 3YO campaign that was tremendously disappointing.

2008 - Dream Empress, who went 0-7 afterwards with a 3rd place finish her best performance. But hey, McPeek was going to run her at Ascot!

2009 - Negligee, who effectively ruined the chances of Biofuel in the BC Juv Fillies and came back for a 3YO season which has been highlighted by...absolutely nothing. She's 0-4.

Wow...4 years.Country Star was a very nice filly who had issues, Negligee just has a shitty trainer.

[Dahoss]

I'm probably reaching a lot here, but I'm going to bet a few dollars on Forest Legend in the Alcibiades. Before her win last out, Vicki Oliver was just 2 for 45 with firsters over the last five years and 1 for 18 with 2 year old firsters.

I guess that explains why she went off at those odds last time, because she is really bred well for the grass. That isn't a redboard, I didn't bet her, but her dam could really run and she's a half to recent Ballston Spa runnerup Silver Reunion. I think this one can run a bit.

There is decent amount of speed in here and this race has seen it's fair share of surprise winners, since it's been run on poly. Oliver is 33% in the money going turf to poly at Keeneland and Keeneland is her home track. I'm going to bet her to win and then underneath Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y and Wonderlandbynight in exactas.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I'm probably reaching a lot here, but I'm going to bet a few dollars on Forest Legend in the Alcibiades. Before her win last out, Vicki Oliver was just 2 for 45 with firsters over the last five years and 1 for 18 with 2 year old firsters.

I guess that explains why she went off at those odds last time, because she is really bred well for the grass. That isn't a redboard, I didn't bet her, but her dam could really run and she's a half to recent Ballston Spa runnerup Silver Reunion. I think this one can run a bit.

There is decent amount of speed in here and this race has seen it's fair share of surprise winners, since it's been run on poly. Oliver is 33% in the money going turf to poly at Keeneland and Keeneland is her home track. I'm going to bet her to win and then underneath Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y and Wonderlandbynight in exactas.

There is no such thing as reaching on synthetics, especially with 2yo's at Keeneland. Just about anything can happen and usually does. I say take a shot with her.

I kind of like Dos Lunas in here who will be a similar price. I loved her debut, very good synthetic pedigree and word is the work on Saturday was excellent. Cross out the Saratoga try and she fits well.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by philcski

There is no such thing as reaching on synthetics, especially with 2yo's at Keeneland. Just about anything can happen and usually does. I say take a shot with her.

I kind of like Dos Lunas in here who will be a similar price. I loved her debut, very good synthetic pedigree and word is the work on Saturday was excellent. Cross out the Saratoga try and she fits well.

I bet Dos Lunas last time at Woodbine because her race two back was huge I thought. But what kind of odds are you expecting? I'll be shocked if she isn't a lot shorter than Forest Legend oddswise.

[miraja2]

I was hoping to bet against Wonderlandbynight and Jordy Y because all they did was pick up the pieces (in pretty unimpressive fashion) after the Arlington Lassie completely fell apart in front of them. Unfortunately, I'm not sure this is going to end up being the right spot to bet against them, and Wonderlandbynight isn't awful. At least she has proven she can win routing on synthetic.

I think I'll probably end up skipping this one.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I bet Dos Lunas last time at Woodbine because her race two back was huge I thought. But what kind of odds are you expecting? I'll be shocked if she isn't a lot shorter than Forest Legend oddswise.

15-1ish maybe? I figure Wickedly Perfect will be around 3/2, 8/5 and Harlan's Ruby, Jordy Y, and Wonderlandbynight all around 4-1, 5-1. Forest Legend probably will be 30-1, 40-1. Harlan's Ruby will be overbet because it's McPeek/Leparoux. Have not seen the TG's yet though which could move the numbers around some.

[Gate Dancer]

I'll be using Poof Too as my exacta horse for this race. Interesting comparison between the maiden breaker for Poof Too and the Ontario Debutante that Wonderlandbynight ran in. The maiden race was faster at each call and final time. Breeding suggests no problem for her either on the stretchout. With a little second race improvement, I think she might be in the mix. Rail post is still nice at Keeneland in route races. Price should be appealing as well.