10/8: Belmont ($18k C/O); Keeneland (Late P4)

[Kasept]

Endured a very rough afternoon Thursday at Belmont as several tough to like horses performed above expectation and quelled nearly every multi-race wager I attempted. $16.40 Brigadier General, (yet another miraculous Rudy Rodriguez turnaround), $37.80 Artie Luvsto Party and $15.40 Lights Out Lisa were the culprits in the 3rd, 4th and 9th respectively. The last 6 races of the card certainly intimidated P6 players, as the carryover that resulted from the upsets is a relatively tiny $18k. Hope you did OK on the challenging afternoon...

Another great weekend of racing is on the horizon, and the addition of Keeneland to the wagering menu for the next three weeks is still a highlight of the fall season for many despite the vagaries ofthe synthetic main track. Opinions on the late P4 at KEE and the Belmont card are below... Weekend Preview on ATR this morning!


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th and 9th OFF the turf; 2nd, 6th, 9th ON with 6th moved to Inner..


2nd: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Grace and Courage 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Bobity Boo 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Pretty Cozzy 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Paddock SCR


3rd: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 My Golden Opinion 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Cave's Valley 4-1 WON ($12.60)
Best Value: #7 Saint Daimon 8-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Greenspirit 5-1 3rd


4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD)

$18k P6 C/O Starts Here..

Most Likely: #12 Tatum Creek 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #13 Spoleto 4-1 WON ($3.30)
Exotics Use: #4 SCR


5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Like yesterday's low end claimer, a volatile spot with any number of possibles..

Best Value: #3 First Flute 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Crazy Thing 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Aegean Breeze 3-1 3rd
Multi-race Add: #5 Mighty Irish 2-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-5-7
3: 3-4-6-7
4: 12
5: 1-3-5-8

3x4x1x4 = $48


6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Brutal turf sprint with several owning unpredictable form..

Most Likely: #7 Diamond Dina 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Precision Farming 7-2 WON ($16.80)
Best Value: #12 Risky Gamble 15-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Ride On Josephine 6-1 5th


7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 11f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Well-matched set going 2+ turns on the inner grass..

Best Value: #2 Quick to Charm 15-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Cheyenne Nation 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Slambino 9-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Peahi 6-1 6th


8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (DD)

The beat goes on with a very nice 3rd level ALW/OC for $57k that would have been more than acceptable as an overnight stake..

Best Value: #8 Captain Cherokee 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Go Go Shoot 7-2 WON ($6.00)
Exotics Use: #4 Star for a Day 5-1 3rd


9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #12 Wildlee Special 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Green Bananas 15-1 8th
Exotics Use: #15 One Turn Eddie 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #13 Scorch the Torch 12-1 5th


<$200 P6 Play:

4: 12-13
5: 1-3-5-8
6: 3-7
7: 2-4-8
8: 8
9: 7-12

2x4x2x3x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-7
7: 2-4-5-8
8: 1-3-8
9: 7-12-15

2x4x3x3 = $72



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (.50 P4, .50 P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 High Quality 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Paracaidas 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Fortunia 5-1 4th
Super Add: #12 Sweet Mis Kitty 20-1 5th


8th: Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (.50 P3, DD, Super)

Obliged to play against Warrior's Reward on surface that produced worst performance of his career as a stakes sprinter. Happy to be ready for him at Churchill in 4 weeks..

Best Value: #8 Super Robusto 15-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Hollywood Hit 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Canonize 4-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Wise Dan 8-1 WON ($15.20)


9th: Alcibiades (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

SCR #1 Poof Too who opted for the Mazarine at home in Toronto..

Best Value: #3 Jordy Y 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Wonderlandbynight 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Wickedly Perfect 5-2 WON ($5.00)
Super Add: #7 Forest Legend 20-1 5th


10th: CLM, 3yo-F, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #6 Lunar Mist 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 Peach Bottom 4-1 12th
Best Value: #10 Divine Sophia 30-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Winsockie 7-2 3rd
Hi-5 Play: #12 Snugs and Kisses 12-1 10th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-7-10-12
8: 3-7-8-11
9: 3-4-6
10: 6-8-10

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[jms62]

Steve,

My picks for the Phoenix and Alcibiades (G1) are exactly the same as yours. You know what that means??? We probably should play Belmont today

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

KEE SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Trimming P4 to $48

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 4-5-7
3: 3-4-6-7
4: 12
5: 1-3-5-8

3x4x1x4 = $48

[Kasept]

Wow.. Wouldn't have found this winner no how.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Wow.. Wouldn't have found this winner no how.

God, Satan and the Players' Pool couldn't have had that Pick 4.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

God, Satan and the Players' Pool couldn't have had that Pick 4.

$36k for $2. And that's with a 3-5 shot and very usable 5-1 (Cave's Valley).

[Kasept]

Have to go to Albany with Derby Barbie... G/L rest of afternoon all. Will check in via the BB...

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Have to go to Albany with Derby Barbie... G/L rest of afternoon all. Will check in via the BB...

Nothin' like lively Albany....

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Nothin' like lively Albany....

Easy there Melrose. Not only have we been in Albany, currently at Bob & Ron's for fish fry, but also made a stop in Troy...

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by asudevil

Nothin' like lively Albany....

Went to a wedding up there. They have a Jillian's no? That place was damn fun, after a wedding.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kasept

currently at Bob & Ron's for fish fry

Better find a toilet quick

[Kasept]

Stop... Low blow! Bob & Ron's is fabulous...