The Racing Post Trophy ~ tomorrow at Doncaster

[my miss storm cat]

Saturday October 23 2010
Doncaster 14:55

Racing Post Trophy (group 1) (str)
£200000.00 added, 2yo only, 1m, Class 1
10 runners
Going: Good, Good to Soft in places
Surface: Turf
Race Preview » RP Trophy/Derby doubles: Native Khan 50/1

No. Form Horse Age Wt Trainer Jockey OR NagMe Bet
1 (3) 121 Casamento (IRE) 27 2 9-0 M Halford L Dettori SP SP
11/4
2 (1) 120041 Dubawi Gold 14 2 9-0 M Dods T Eaves 99 SP SP
25/1
3 (4) 11 Dunboyne Express (IRE) 97 2 9-0 K Prendergast D P McDonogh SP SP
4/1
4 (2) 14 Karam Albaari (IRE) 42 2 9-0 J R Jenkins J Quinn 109 SP SP
22/1
5 (6) 5221 Master Of Hounds (USA) 104 2 9-0 A P O'Brien J P Murtagh 100 SP SP
6/1
6 (7) 11 Native Khan (FR) 63 2 9-0 E A L Dunlop P Hanagan 106 SP SP
8/1
7 (8) 21 Seville (GER) 20 2 9-0 A P O'Brien C O'Donoghue SP SP
7/1
8 (9) 11 Titus Mills (IRE) 46 2 9-0 B J Meehan K Fallon 108 SP SP
7/1
9 (5) U114 Toolain (IRE) 14 2 9-0 b1 M A Jarvis N Callan 105 SP SP
16/1
10 (10) 114 Zaidan (USA) 70 2 9-0 C E Brittain S Sanders 109 SP SP
25/1

Last Winner Year Horse Trainer Jockey SP Age Wt Draw
2009 St Nicholas Abbey (IRE) A P O'Brien J P Murtagh 13/8F 2 9-0 9


Betting Forecast: 5/2 Casamento, 4/1 Dunboyne Express, 5/1 Seville, 6/1 Native Khan, 7/1 Master Of Hounds, 8/1 Titus Mills, 20/1 Karam Albaari, 20/1 Toolain, 25/1 Dubawi Gold, 25/1 Zaidan

Verdict
Favourites have won half of the last 10 runnings of this stellar juvenile contest with upsets rare and the likely market leader for this renewal, CASAMENTO is not easy to oppose. Michael Halford's colt has been beaten by only one rival, and that by merely a head at Group 1 level, in three starts to date. He is proven over this trip and on soft ground as evidenced by an impressive Beresford Stakes win last time and he is very much the one to beat. Dunboyne Express was flattered by the margin of victory in an uncompetitive Group 3 last time but that is not to say that Kevin Prendergast's unbeaten colt can't improve for this step up to a mile and he is a threat. Master Of Hounds is going the right way and was only narrowly beaten by Dunboyne Express at level weights earlier in the season. Native Khan and Titus Mills head up the home challenge and both need some improvement to be involved where it matters.


FORMWATCH
Casamento (IRE) 4-6fav (9-1) Raced in 2nd, improved to lead under 1 1/2f out, ridden clear final furlong, easily, won at Curragh 1m 2yo Grp 2 (1) in Sep beating Mawaakef (9-1) by 4l, 7 ran.Dubawi Gold 25-1 (9-0) Made all, ridden 2f out, ran on final furlong, won at Ascot 7f 2yo stks (2) gs beating Tazahum (9-0) by 3 1/2l, 5 ran.Dunboyne Express (IRE) 9-2 (9-1) Chased leader, improved to lead halfway, ridden and kept on well from over 1f out, stayed on strongly to go clear final furlong, won at Curragh 6f 2yo Grp 3 (1) gd in Jul beating Samuel Morse (9-1) by 8l, 4 ran.Karam Albaari (IRE) 50-1 (8-12) Held up in rear, pushed along over 2f out, soon headway, ridden over 1f out, kept on inside final furlong, 4th of 6, 3l behind Saamidd (8-12) at Doncaster 7f 2yo Grp 2 (1) gd in Sep.Master Of Hounds (USA) 1-7fav (9-3) Chased leaders in 3rd, improved to lead 2f out, soon pushed clear, stayed on strongly, easily, won at Tipperary 7f 2yo mdn fm in Jul beating Poltava (9-3) by 6l, 8 ran.Native Khan (FR) 6-5fav (9-0) Held up last, smooth headway over 2f out, quickened between horses over 1f out, led inside final furlong, driven and stayed on strongly, won at Sandown 7f 2yo Grp 3 (1) gf in Aug beating Measuring Time (9-0) by 1/2l, 6 ran.Seville (GER) 8-13fav (8-10) Made all, went clear entering straight, ridden final furlong, easily, won at Tipperary 7f 2yo stk sft beating Triple Eight (9-6) by 6l, 4 ran.Titus Mills (IRE) 5-6fav (9-0) Made all, hung left to stands rail from inside final 2f, strongly pressed entering final furlong, driven found extra and in control final 100 yards, won going away, won at Goodwood 7f 2yo lst stk (1) gd in Sep beating Big Issue (9-0) by 1/2l, 5 ran.Toolain (IRE) 2-1fav (9-0) Held up, effort when repeatedly denied a clear run from over 2f out, stayed on inside final furlong, 4th of 8, 4 1/2l behind Abjer (9-0) at Ascot 1m 2yo Grp 3 (1) gs.Zaidan (USA) Evensfav (9-3) Tracked leader, led 3f out, ridden 2f out, headed over 1f out, weakened final furlong, last of 4, 8l behind Janood (9-0) at Newbury 7f 2yo lst stk (1) gs in Aug.

* * *


Might be ridiculous to play against the favorites here (actually I thought the favorites would be Casamento and Master of Hounds) but I'll go with Native Khan / Toolain or Dubawi Gold.

[my miss storm cat]

Saturday October 23 2010
Doncaster 14:55 - Result

Racing Post Trophy (group 1) (str)
£200000 added, 2yo only, 1m, Class 1, 10 ran
Going: Good, Good to Soft in places
Surface: Turf
Race Report »
Winning Time: 1m 37.03s 13:55
Pos. Dr. Dist. Horse Wt Jockey Trainer Age SP

1 3 Casamento (IRE) 9-0 L Dettori M Halford 2 2/1 f
tracked leaders, led over 1f out, soon edged right, kept on well under pressure opened 3/1 £3000-£1000 (x3) £1500-£500 (x6) £2800-£800 (x3)
2 8 ¾ Seville (GER) 9-0 C O'Donoghue A P O'Brien 2 8/1
tracked leaders, ridden to challenge 2f out, soon hard ridden, stayed on strongly, not pace of winner touched 9/1
3 6 2 Master Of Hounds (USA) 9-0 J P Murtagh A P O'Brien 2 15/2
held up in rear, headway over 2f out, chased leaders over 1f out, kept on under pressure, never able to challenge opened 13/2 touched 8/1
4 7 ¾ Native Khan (FR) 9-0 P Hanagan E A L Dunlop 2 17/2
held up in rear, headway approaching final furlong, never troubled leaders opened 9/1 touched 8/1
5 4 1¾ Dunboyne Express (IRE) 9-0 D P McDonogh K Prendergast 2 4/1
pulled hard in touch, carried right over 2f out right, soon under pressure and no impression opened 9/2 £4500-£1000 (x2) £2000-£500
6 2 2¼ Karam Albaari (IRE) 9-0 J Quinn J R Jenkins 2 40/1
raced keenly in touch, hard ridden to challenge over 2f out, weakened inside final furlong opened 33/1 touched 50/1 £20000-£400 Each Way
7 5 hd Toolain (IRE) 9-0 b1 N Callan M A Jarvis 2 20/1
tracked leader, keen early, short of room over 2f out, lost place over 1f out opened 18/1
8 10 1 Zaidan (USA) 9-0 S Sanders C E Brittain 2 16/1
dwelt, held up in rear, switched left and headway over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong
9 1 6 Dubawi Gold 9-0 T Eaves M Dods 2 20/1
led, steady pace, hung right over 2f out, ridden and headed over 1f out, weakened inside final furlong opened 16/1 touched 14/1
10 9 4½ Titus Mills (IRE) 9-0 K Fallon B J Meehan 2 13/2
chased leaders over 4f, soon under pressure and weakened opened 6/1 touched 7/1 £3250-£500

Analysis: The return of Sheikh Mohammed's famous colours to an English racecourse and a performance to please all racing fans. CASAMENTO, despite drifting to his right in the final furlong, was always in command and scored in clear-cut fashion from Seville in second, with stablemate Master Of The Hounds in third. No frantic gallop from the onset with Dubawi Gold leading the group towards the far side, with Seville racing alone nearer to the stands rail. Dubawi Gold was keen in front in the first half of the race, whilst after just a furlong there was a mini-incident when Dunboyne Express and Karam Albaari seemed to have a coming together; as a result both were quite keen. The winner had his head to the side throughout but he'd settled well, as had Native Khan further back. Ultimately Frankie Dettori had his mount in the perfect position to pick up the piece from the slow tempo and he committed for home some way out. That was when he drifted under pressure but to be fair he then straightened up when persuaded with the whip and ran on well. Meanwhile the lone ranger Seville refused to lie down and it was only in the last 50 yards that the result was settled. Master Of The Hounds was another from Ballydoyle hoping to further improve his trainer's excellent record in the race and he came from further back having seemingly been outpaced when the tempo quickened. The disappointment of the race was Dunboyne Express. Perhaps his early bump put him off slightly but he didn't quicken under pressure and whilst he plugged on into fifth it seems a bit inconclusive whether this trip will suit. Native Khan fared best of the home challenge and he ran a cracker in fourth, perhaps just being slightly outclassed, whilst Titus Mills made a challenge two furlongs out but weakened quickly and finished last of all. Zaidan was one of the first to be shoved along, and along with Toolain who made some late progress past beaten horses, was another to be well beaten off. The winner, trained by Mick Halford, may yet move to the Godolphin operation over the winter but it would be harsh on a trainer who has brought him along superbly. Whether he will stay the Derby trip is another question yet to be answered, especially by his pedigree, but he has plenty of improvement yet to come and it would be a brave man who discounts him lightly.