Breeders Cup betting??

SilverRP · #1 10-25-2010, 07:21 PM

With the day less than 2 weeks out, just like every big day, my biggest problem is deciding not so much who to bet, but how to bet. I'm normally just a small win, exacta, pick 3 better, but would like to "get out of the box" so to speak.

I'm curious to know how many of you bet the Breeders Cup. What are the best bets? Do you stay with only Pick 3's and 4's? Is it better to stay with how you normally bet?

RockHardTen1985 · #2 10-25-2010, 07:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SilverRP

With the day less than 2 weeks out, just like every big day, my biggest problem is deciding not so much who to bet, but how to bet. I'm normally just a small win, exacta, pick 3 better, but would like to "get out of the box" so to speak.

I'm curious to know how many of you bet the Breeders Cup. What are the best bets? Do you stay with only Pick 3's and 4's? Is it better to stay with how you normally bet?

I likely wont make any win or exacta bets. Maybe some triples with the 50 cent minimum. Pick 3 mainly. A horse I would bet to win, Ill press hard in pick 3's and try to really crush it. Even if its a favorite. Pick 4's also.

hockey2315 · #3 10-25-2010, 07:45 PM

Formulate your opinion, and bet accordingly and as close to that opinion as possible.

RockHardTen1985 · #4 10-25-2010, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Formulate your opinion, and bet accordingly and as close to that opinion as possible.

I think thats pretty obvious. I think he is talking about what type of bets.
Is it bad strategy for me to say, I wont make any win/place bets?

hockey2315 · #5 10-25-2010, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I think thats pretty obvious. I think he is talking about what type of bets.
Is it bad strategy for me to say, I wont make any win/place bets?

The type of bets you make should be the ones that allow you to best maximize your opinion. It think that's pretty obvious. . .

It's always a bad strategy to make win/place bets.

knickslions2 · #6 10-25-2010, 09:10 PM

I like win bets and exacta bets. Plenty of value in these races.

Bigsmc · #7 10-26-2010, 05:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SilverRP

With the day less than 2 weeks out, just like every big day, my biggest problem is deciding not so much who to bet, but how to bet. I'm normally just a small win, exacta, pick 3 better, but would like to "get out of the box" so to speak.

I'm curious to know how many of you bet the Breeders Cup. What are the best bets? Do you stay with only Pick 3's and 4's? Is it better to stay with how you normally bet?

Yes, why change anything in your handicapping becasue the purses are larger?

The only thing I do is allow myself a bit more bankroll than any other racing day. The wagering stays exactly the same.

Unless it at Santa Anita, then my bankroll shrinks to zero and I wager elsewhere.

chucklestheclown · #8 10-26-2010, 06:17 AM

Since you are asking I would suggest you do what you normally do on day one and branch out if you have any left on Saturday. But at least do a L.Classic/Classic double.

cal828 · #9 10-26-2010, 08:09 AM

If you want to experiment with some of these multirace and multihorse bets then this would, in my opinion, be the time to do it with the lower minimum bets that are being offered. However, without some practice making these bets, you might not be as effective at constructing them as with bets that are more familiar to you.

Linny · #10 10-26-2010, 08:37 AM

A small bettor can have some fun with .50 TRI's and a even the $1 P3. Be sure to do your work ahead of time. Sit down after you have done your handicapping and look at the betting menu for each race. If you like (meaning ou have a strong opinion) 2 races in a row, maybe you can use them as the end, middle and start of P3's with the speading in the other legs. Races where you have horses you really dislike might be ripe for tri's using the survivors. This is especially so if you don't have solid opinions in the races before or after and a P3 is not an option.

Don't step too far out of your normal range because if your first couple of bets don't win, you will feel like you "blew too much money" already and then might miss decent winners. Since the payoffs in the BC races are often very big, you don't need to jump way up to make money. I had a signer on a dime super last year. Also, if you have a bad day (or two) you are likely to get turned off betting the Cup and then miss out on great opportunities in future years. I prefer to stay with my usual bet denomination and spread a bit more then usual.

jms62 · #11 10-26-2010, 08:42 AM

In my opinion the rolling Pick 3 by far is the best play.

justindew · #12 10-26-2010, 08:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

The type of bets you make should be the ones that allow you to best maximize your opinion. It think that's pretty obvious. . .

It's always a bad strategy to make win/place bets.

Why not just tell him to only make bets that win?

Travis Stone · #13 10-26-2010, 09:05 AM

I actually think the P3 is one of the worst plays out there, although at 50-cents it's a bit more manageable.

P3's can be bankroll eaters unless you focus, drill down and play narrow tickets. The tendency is for people to play tickets like: 3 x 3 x 5 for $45, when in reality three or four $45 tickets would be better spent on the P4. Not to mention a 3x3x5 in the BC is a thin play.

hockey2315 · #14 10-26-2010, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

Why not just tell him to only make bets that win?

Oh great. . . you're back.

These threads are so worthless every time someone starts one. I have no idea how this guy should bet the Breeders' Cup. All I can tell him is how I would bet it, but the way I bet it is based on the types of opinions that I formulate on my own. Saying that pk3s are good bets if the guy's opinion is that some longshot can get in the tri or whatever isn't going to do him any good.

Look at the two posts before this - one praising the pk3 and one condemning it. They're both right, or both wrong. It's a good bet for some people, or for some opinions, but not others.

No bet is better or worse than another without considering what is being bet. The tri is not inherently better or worse than the Pk3 when you don't know what numbers are going to fill either one.

The win/place thing was just a shot at PG, who fails to understand why betting win/place is terrible despite my many attempts to explain it to him.

RockHardTen1985 · #15 10-26-2010, 11:45 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I actually think the P3 is one of the worst plays out there, although at 50-cents it's a bit more manageable.

P3's can be bankroll eaters unless you focus, drill down and play narrow tickets. The tendency is for people to play tickets like: 3 x 3 x 5 for $45, when in reality three or four $45 tickets would be better spent on the P4. Not to mention a 3x3x5 in the BC is a thin play.

If you think your any sort of good handicapper, and have an opinion how is 3-3-5 thin?

hockey2315 · #16 10-26-2010, 11:56 AM

3x3x5 in the BC is pretty thin in most cases. . . that's why you have to find horses to lean on/single.

randallscott35 · #17 10-26-2010, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

3x3x5 in the BC is pretty thin in most cases. . . that's why you have to find horses to lean on/single.

Brett Farve thin.

philcski · #18 10-26-2010, 11:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Oh great. . . you're back.

These threads are so worthless every time someone starts one. I have no idea how this guy should bet the Breeders' Cup. All I can tell him is how I would bet it, but the way I bet it is based on the types of opinions that I formulate on my own. Saying that pk3s are good bets if the guy's opinion is that some longshot can get in the tri or whatever isn't going to do him any good.

Look at the two posts before this - one praising the pk3 and one condemning it. They're both right, or both wrong. It's a good bet for some people, or for some opinions, but not others.

No bet is better or worse than another without considering what is being bet. The tri is not inherently better or worse than the Pk3 when you don't know what numbers are going to fill either one.

The win/place thing was just a shot at PG, who fails to understand why betting win/place is terrible despite my many attempts to explain it to him.

I would disagree that Win/Place is always a terrible bet. Sometimes it works out to be a better choice. For example, the other day at Keeneland I liked a horse that was 3-1 ML and decided (a) the odds would likely go down on her from the ML and (b) the pick 3 could offer value because both the last leg was very difficult and the first leg potentially tough. I played a 5x1x8 pick 3, and with a $21.80 horse in the last it paid $212 for a buck. Ok, not bad for a 3-1 ML- I was certainly pleased. Well my instinct was wrong on her odds as she drifted up to 5.5-1 and paid $13 to win, so for the same $40 I would have gotten $260 despite having a good result in the last. Did I make the right bet based on my opinion? Yes. Did it work out great? Yes and no. Remember that in most jurisdictions (KY excluded) there is a significant takeout penalty for playing a pick 3 versus a WPS bet.

My best suggestion is if you like a horse that is double digits, bet it to win/place and be happy with the result, or press it with an exacta. If it's less than 10-1 pick 3's (or even doubles) make sense.

randallscott35 · #19 10-26-2010, 11:56 AM

You must single somewhere.

hockey2315 · #20 10-26-2010, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I would disagree that Win/Place is always a terrible bet. Sometimes it works out to be a better choice. For example, the other day at Keeneland I liked a horse that was 3-1 ML and decided (a) the odds would likely go down on her from the ML and (b) the pick 3 could offer value because both the last leg was very difficult and the first leg potentially tough. I played a 5x1x8 pick 3, and with a $21.80 horse in the last it paid $212 for a buck. Ok, not bad for a 3-1 ML- I was certainly pleased. Well my instinct was wrong on her odds as she drifted up to 5.5-1 and paid $13 to win, so for the same $40 I would have gotten $260 despite having a good result in the last. Did I make the right bet based on my opinion? Yes. Did it work out great? Yes and no. Remember that in most jurisdictions (KY excluded) there is a significant takeout penalty for playing a pick 3 versus a WPS bet.

My best suggestion is if you like a horse that is double digits, bet it to win/place and be happy with the result, or press it with an exacta. If it's less than 10-1 pick 3's (or even doubles) make sense.

That's not what I'm saying. Obviously win bets alone are fine. . . obviously. Win PLUS place is terrible.