Most Likely BC Winner...

RockHardTen1985 · #1 10-31-2010, 12:45 AM

Im going with Midday. She appears to be in much better form then last year and she won this race pretty handily... I think its very reasonable to say she is better right now, and I simply dont see the appeal with Plumania...
With that said, I will likely cover Plumania and Red Desire because people I know are high on both of them, but I just feel Midday is a very very likely winner.

Dahoss · #2 10-31-2010, 12:54 AM

Covering horses because other people are high on them seems kind of counterproductive to me. But, even though I am not crazy about the layoff, Boys In Tosconova seems the most likely winner to me.

At least the layoff was planned and not because he had issues. Reminds me of Imperial Gesture a bit, although that was one turn, not two. He figures to sit a nice trip behind the speed and Uncle Moe will get plenty of pressure on the lead. If one of the Euro's steps up, I'll accept it, because I think he's much the best compared to anything I have seen here.

RockHardTen1985 · #3 10-31-2010, 12:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Covering horses because other people are high on them seems kind of counterproductive to me. But, even though I am not crazy about the layoff, Boys In Tosconova seems the most likely winner to me.

At least the layoff was planned and not because he had issues. Reminds me of Imperial Gesture a bit, although that was one turn, not two. He figures to sit a nice trip behind the speed and Uncle Moe will get plenty of pressure on the lead. If one of the Euro's steps up, I'll accept it, because I think he's much the best compared to anything I have seen here.

Im not really down on Red Desire... I just dont think she is good enough, I do agree her last was likely a prep and I like how it played out. I just think Midday towers over that group. She is actually most likely to repeat in a BC race IMO. More likely then Z or Goldikova.
B@T is one of my big stands. How do you think the odds will go? I thought B@T around 9-5 and UM 6-5, but my friend thinks UM will be odds on and B@T will be around 3-1.

ateamstupid · #4 10-31-2010, 01:00 AM

It's real tough for me to see Midday losing. As I wrote in the other thread, she's one of only two chalks that I see as standouts. She's been better this year than she was last year, she seems to have been pointed to this race all season and she already beat Plumania on the square. Red Desire's the only other one I'll be using.

If Paco Boy weren't in the Mile, Goldikova would be the lock of the century.

Also, if Uncle Mo is odds on, I'm loading up against.

hockey2315 · #5 10-31-2010, 01:15 AM

Red Desire and Plumania are almost equal to Midday in percentage likelihood. Blind Luck is the most likely winner both days, and I don't even like her that much.

hockey2315 · #6 10-31-2010, 01:16 AM

actually Winter Memories, but I like the Reddam filly.

RockHardTen1985 · #7 10-31-2010, 01:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Red Desire and Plumania are almost equal to Midday in percentage likelihood. Blind Luck is the most likely winner both days, and I don't even like her that much.

Blind Luck? Really? Im against.
I also dont see how Plumania is close to Midday, you go as far as almost equal.

Dahoss · #8 10-31-2010, 01:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Blind Luck? Really? Im against.
I also dont see how Plumania is close to Midday, you go as far as almost equal.

Who are you against Blind Luck with? I'm probably betting a few bucks on Malibu Prayer, but Blind Luck will be heavily covered in any exotic wager I make.

RockHardTen1985 · #9 10-31-2010, 01:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Who are you against Blind Luck with? I'm probably betting a few bucks on Malibu Prayer, but Blind Luck will be heavily covered in any exotic wager I make.

Evening Jewel.
I also like Malibu Prayer, Unrivaled Belle and maybe Acting Happy.

RockHardTen1985 · #10 10-31-2010, 01:40 AM

Im really high on Evening Jewel. They faced each other on dirt once and EJ was beaten a head. Shes an instand overlay at 5 maybe like 8x the price. Plus figures to pull that cozy trip off of Malibu, Unrivaled, and L@T.

Dahoss · #11 10-31-2010, 01:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Evening Jewel.
I also like Malibu Prayer, Unrivaled Belle and maybe Acting Happy.

You're going to play pick 3's and not use Blind Luck....but Acting Happy?

RockHardTen1985 · #12 10-31-2010, 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You're going to play pick 3's and not use Blind Luck....but Acting Happy?

Im going to press Evening Jewel. You gotta take stands. My stands are B@T, Blind Luck, Blame and maybe Winter Memories. I have to be right what once? With a bankroll around $800 for both days, and playing mostly pick 3's if Im right once Im getting paid.

Dahoss · #13 10-31-2010, 01:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im going to press Evening Jewel. You gotta take stands. My stands are B@T, Blind Luck, Blame and maybe Winter Memories. I have to be right what once? With a bankroll around $800 for both days, and playing mostly pick 3's if Im right once Im getting paid.

2 out of your 4 stands aren't even going to be the favorite. How prohibitive do you think Winter Memories or Blind Luck are going to be? And how do you use Acting Happy and Evening Jewel and not Havre De Grace?

The Malibu Prayer part was funny though.

RockHardTen1985 · #14 10-31-2010, 01:51 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

2 out of your 4 stands aren't even going to be the favorite. How prohibitive do you think Winter Memories or Blind Luck are going to be? And how do you use Acting Happy and Evening Jewel and not Havre De Grace?

The Malibu Prayer part was funny though.

Are you serious? I think WM and BL will be around 7-5 if not lower. And its not like Im standing with the second choice. I never gave you a hard time about MP, I said was the track not speed favoring and what about the Mott. Thats it.

Dahoss · #15 10-31-2010, 01:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Are you serious? I think WM and BL will be around 7-5 if not lower. And its not like Im standing with the second choice. I never gave you a hard time about MP, I said was the track not speed favoring and what about the Mott. Thats it.

Read my post. 2 out of your 4 "stands" aren't even going to be the favorite. Blame isn't going to be the favorite and neither is Boys In Tosconova. No way Blind Luck is 7/5 or less with Life At Ten and Havre De Grace in there.

RockHardTen1985 · #16 10-31-2010, 01:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Read my post. 2 out of your 4 "stands" aren't even going to be the favorite. Blame isn't going to be the favorite and neither is Boys In Tosconova. No way Blame is 7/5 or less with Life At Ten and Havre De Grace in there.

Blame is in the Classic, its late and clearly we are both tired...
Blame is going to be bet hard, he will be the second choice.

Dahoss · #17 10-31-2010, 02:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Blame is in the Classic, its late and clearly we are both tired...
Blame is going to be bet hard, he will be the second choice.

You know what I meant.

RockHardTen1985 · #18 10-31-2010, 02:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

You know what I meant.

Dark Invader tomorrow....
Excited...
Both Decent prices.
Goodnight.

Dahoss · #19 10-31-2010, 02:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Dark Invader tomorrow....
Excited...
Both Decent prices.
Goodnight.

When you wake up from your beauty sleep, please explain how the Blind Luck race will be bet. I'm interested in understanding how she'll be 7/5.

ateamstupid · #20 10-31-2010, 02:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Are you serious? I think WM and BL will be around 7-5 if not lower. And its not like Im standing with the second choice. I never gave you a hard time about MP, I said was the track not speed favoring and what about the Mott. Thats it.

You're buggin. Winter Memories will be like 5-2 and Blind Luck will be 3-1 or 7-2.