Espoir City?

[Dunbar]

How do you cap Espoir City's chances? Between Mar 09 and May 10 he won 6 races in a row in Japan, and the smallest purse was over $700K, and there were 2 Gr I's. Comes back in Oct to finish 2nd of 12 in another $800K race.

What would you think would be fair odds for his horse? I have a very tough time with entries like this.

--Dunbar

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

How do you cap Espoir City's chances? Between Mar 09 and May 10 he won 6 races in a row in Japan, and the smallest purse was over $700K, and there were 2 Gr I's. Comes back in Oct to finish 2nd of 12 in another $800K race.

What would you think would be fair odds for his horse? I have a very tough time with entries like this.

--Dunbar

Fair would be around 16-1 IMO, and I give him very little chance.

[my miss storm cat]

I would say maybe 20/1 with a fair chance of hitting the super.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

How do you cap Espoir City's chances? Between Mar 09 and May 10 he won 6 races in a row in Japan, and the smallest purse was over $700K, and there were 2 Gr I's. Comes back in Oct to finish 2nd of 12 in another $800K race.

What would you think would be fair odds for his horse? I have a very tough time with entries like this.

--Dunbar

I will attempt to look over charts from Japan dirt races and gauge him. There was an instance last year where Vale of York would have had figures that towered over his opposition in either the BC juvie or BC juvie Turf... and both numbers were earned in races where he clearly appeared to be against the flow or dynamics.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

How do you cap Espoir City's chances? Between Mar 09 and May 10 he won 6 races in a row in Japan, and the smallest purse was over $700K, and there were 2 Gr I's. Comes back in Oct to finish 2nd of 12 in another $800K race.

Purses in Japan are absurd. If you're not a millionaire over there, you can't run a step.

I'm not sure how to evaluate him. I worry about the fact that he has been running at shorter distances.

[Arletta]

On my "toss" list.

[santana]

I thnk he is a must use in any type of pik 3 or 4....It isnt like we have some BIG monsters over here. And who knows, he could be Godzilla.....Look at the garbage Zen has been beating....i doubt the Japan crew is worse.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Espoir City is now absolutely a toss for me.

He was 2nd by 3 at 1/10 last time out.

The horse who finished 3rd beaten 5 lengths in that race was sent off at odds of 635/1.

In his three prior start - said horse was beaten double digit lengths each time at odds of 325/1, 412/1, and 311/1 respectively.

Espoir City only has a single race under him since May 5th (KY Derby week) and that one performance sucked horridly. He has to now ship a long way - and take on American dirt horses ... I think he would key my bets if there was an exotic wager on who will finish last in the BC Classic.

I'd love to make an Espoir City-Paddy O' Prado exacta box for last place and second to last place. Perhaps toss in Morning Line or Etched to complete the trifecta of fail.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Espoir City is now absolutely a toss for me.

He was 2nd by 3 at 1/10 last time out.

The horse who finished 3rd beaten 5 lengths in that race was sent off at odds of 635/1.

In his three prior start - said horse was beaten double digit lengths each time at odds of 325/1, 412/1, and 311/1 respectively.

Espoir City only has a single race under him since May 5th (KY Derby week) and that one performance sucked horridly. He has to now ship a long way - and take on American dirt horses ... I think he would key my bets if there was an exotic wager on who will finish last in the BC Classic.

I'd love to make an Espoir City-Paddy O' Prado exacta box for last place and second to last place. Perhaps toss in Morning Line or Etched to complete the trifecta of fail.

Is Morning Line really that bad?

[3kings]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Espoir City is now absolutely a toss for me.

He was 2nd by 3 at 1/10 last time out.

The horse who finished 3rd beaten 5 lengths in that race was sent off at odds of 635/1.

In his three prior start - said horse was beaten double digit lengths each time at odds of 325/1, 412/1, and 311/1 respectively.

Espoir City only has a single race under him since May 5th (KY Derby week) and that one performance sucked horridly. He has to now ship a long way - and take on American dirt horses ... I think he would key my bets if there was an exotic wager on who will finish last in the BC Classic.

I'd love to make an Espoir City-Paddy O' Prado exacta box for last place and second to last place. Perhaps toss in Morning Line or Etched to complete the trifecta of fail.

Good stuff Doug, thanks for the research.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Is Morning Line really that bad?

Someone has to run 3rd to last - and Morning Line can only contend on the front - I expect him to be the first pace horse who tosses in the towell.

[pweizer]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Espoir City is now absolutely a toss for me.

He was 2nd by 3 at 1/10 last time out.

The horse who finished 3rd beaten 5 lengths in that race was sent off at odds of 635/1.

In his three prior start - said horse was beaten double digit lengths each time at odds of 325/1, 412/1, and 311/1 respectively.

Espoir City only has a single race under him since May 5th (KY Derby week) and that one performance sucked horridly. He has to now ship a long way - and take on American dirt horses ... I think he would key my bets if there was an exotic wager on who will finish last in the BC Classic.

I'd love to make an Espoir City-Paddy O' Prado exacta box for last place and second to last place. Perhaps toss in Morning Line or Etched to complete the trifecta of fail.

Doug--I very much respect your opinions, but that race was clearly a prep and was shorter than he wants to go. Can you really read that much into a race where the horse was likely not fully cranked?

Paul

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Someone has to run 3rd to last - and Morning Line can only contend on the front - I expect him to be the first pace horse who tosses in the towell.

That makes sense... This is kinda ambitious for him, I thought he could be ok next year. Why not wait for the Clark? 3yr olds did very well in the Clark last year.

[ateamstupid]

I give him the same chance I gave Personal Rush in '04, slim to none.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by pweizer

Doug--I very much respect your opinions, but that race was clearly a prep and was shorter than he wants to go. Can you really read that much into a race where the horse was likely not fully cranked?

Paul

With only a single race under him since May 5th - and having to ship all the way here - I don't think you can count on significant improvment ... and while perhaps only a prep... his performance was just awful considering how mediocre the competition looked.

He's the #3 horse breaking from post #3 ....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUyxiRuHYNA

Watch the race - even without taking into account how bad his opposition is - and tell me that's a horse you want in the BC Classic.

The horse was fading at a mile against poor competition - and has never raced beyond 9fs.

If you want to look to bet on a horse based on performances from last winter and this spring - with that running style - Quality Road is infinitely more likely a winner.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I give him the same chance I gave Personal Rush in '04, slim to none.

Personal Rush actually ran ok in that race. But yeah, it was a tough edition of the Classic and he was overmatched.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Espoir City is now absolutely a toss for me.

He was 2nd by 3 at 1/10 last time out.

The horse who finished 3rd beaten 5 lengths in that race was sent off at odds of 635/1.

In his three prior start - said horse was beaten double digit lengths each time at odds of 325/1, 412/1, and 311/1 respectively.

Espoir City only has a single race under him since May 5th (KY Derby week) and that one performance sucked horridly. He has to now ship a long way - and take on American dirt horses ... I think he would key my bets if there was an exotic wager on who will finish last in the BC Classic.

I'd love to make an Espoir City-Paddy O' Prado exacta box for last place and second to last place. Perhaps toss in Morning Line or Etched to complete the trifecta of fail.

Thanks for the input!

--Dunbar

[Mike]

On February 22, 2009, Espoir City was a young 4 yo running in a Grade I (Japanese), breaking from post 12(and perhaps it's worth noting that Espoir City has won twice from posts 11 and 12; 4 victories on 4 different tracks), when he ran 4th of 16 horses, beaten one and a half lengths. Casino Drive was second , beaten by a neck.
Four months prior to this race, Casino Drive had finished an 12th in the Breeders Cup Classic.
One month after the Feb 22 race Casino Drive went on to finish a distant eighth to Well Armed in the Dubai World Cup one month later.

I'll toss Espoir City as Casino Drive seems the only good comparative tool than I've seen put forth, and he got whipped twice in the big ones

[chucklestheclown]

Originally Posted by Mike

On February 22, 2009, Espoir City was a young 4 yo running in a Grade I (Japanese), breaking from post 12(and perhaps it's worth noting that Espoir City has won twice from posts 11 and 12; 4 victories on 4 different tracks), when he ran 4th of 16 horses, beaten one and a half lengths. Casino Drive was second , beaten by a neck.
Four months prior to this race, Casino Drive had finished an 12th in the Breeders Cup Classic.
One month after the Feb 22 race Casino Drive went on to finish a distant eighth to Well Armed in the Dubai World Cup one month later.

I'll toss Espoir City as Casino Drive seems the only good comparative tool than I've seen put forth, and he got whipped twice in the big ones

Umm...ok. But he's a toss for me from the top 2 spots at least.

[Mike]

Ya' know, I gotta' go back on my thoughts, as I look at Tizway in the Dirt Mile, I see she was blown away by Espoir City in that race