Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:00 AM
hoovesupsideyourhead's Avatar
hoovesupsideyourhead hoovesupsideyourhead is offline
"The Kentucky Killing Machine"
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: florida
Posts: 16,277
Default now that santa anita has gone back to dirt

will you play it ?
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:01 AM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: USA
Posts: 9,687
Default

No way. Starve the beast. They raised takeout in all of Cali. I refuse to play there again.
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:13 AM
jms62's Avatar
jms62 jms62 is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 19,762
Default

If we get more than a steady diet of 5 horse fields I'll play
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:30 AM
MaTH716's Avatar
MaTH716 MaTH716 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Jersey
Posts: 11,438
Default

Eventually I will, but so many of those horses out there have been running on the fake stuff for so long, that I might be inclined to watch for a month. It will be interesting to see any type of trends between the poly horses versus horses shipping in. Also those horses that reversed their form at the Fairplex and then regressed back at Hollywood might require a second look.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
Reply With Quote
  #5  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:30 AM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35 View Post
No way. Starve the beast. They raised takeout in all of Cali. I refuse to play there again.
I'm not for egregious takeout increases but there are two valid reasons for this instance:

1.) The new levels are still extremely competitive with the nationwide average.

2.) The increased takeout will enable them to increase purses and make a last ditch effort to revitalize CA racing, which is headed down a dark and lonely path.

Contrary to what HANA may lead you to believe, takeout decreases are not the panacea of racing.
Reply With Quote
  #6  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:31 AM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: USA
Posts: 9,687
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
I'm not for egregious takeout increases but there are two valid reasons for this instance:

1.) The new levels are still extremely competitive with the nationwide average.

2.) The increased takeout will enable them to increase purses and make a last ditch effort to revitalize CA racing, which is headed down a dark and lonely path.

Contrary to what HANA may lead you to believe, takeout decreases are not the panacea of racing.
I know I know, it's a canard as always. Increasing takeout will not increase purses.
Reply With Quote
  #7  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:35 AM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35 View Post
I know I know, it's a canard as always. Increasing takeout will not increase purses.
Overnight purses are going up 25% and its not because Uncle Frank is printing money in ze money room.
Reply With Quote
  #8  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:36 AM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: USA
Posts: 9,687
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Overnight purses are going up 25% and its not because Uncle Frank is printing money in ze money room.
Let's see at the end of the meet where things are. Handle etc...
Reply With Quote
  #9  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:48 AM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
2.) The increased takeout will enable them to increase purses and make a last ditch effort to revitalize CA racing, which is headed down a dark and lonely path.
Facepalm.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Contrary to what HANA may lead you to believe, takeout decreases are not the panacea of racing.
Double facepalm.
Reply With Quote
  #10  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:53 AM
notyep59 notyep59 is offline
Golden Gate
 
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 386
Default

impressive.......panacea & canard, in a thread without steve's input.
Reply With Quote
  #11  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:55 AM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Facepalm.



Double facepalm.
At the very least, the increased purses at the beginning of the meet have attracted Steve Asmussen to go out there for the first time and for trainers that left like Eric Guillot to return. Those guys have the horsepower to help a meet simply because of their numbers and the variety of horses they have. The assumption that increased handle will enable them to sustain those purse levels is hardly a crazy one.

I'm interested to know why you think decreasing takeout will lead to some great revival of racing. Exchange wagering has a significantly better chance to help turn things around. Going from 20.68% on exotics to 22.68% while leaving the WPS takeout the same is going to make a difference for CA racing. The CA racing model is completely broken. Trying to survive with meets like what they're offering at Hollywood is never going to work.
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 12-07-2010, 11:59 AM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: USA
Posts: 9,687
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
At the very least, the increased purses at the beginning of the meet have attracted Steve Asmussen to go out there for the first time and for trainers that left like Eric Guillot to return. Those guys have the horsepower to help a meet simply because of their numbers and the variety of horses they have. The assumption that increased handle will enable them to sustain those purse levels is hardly a crazy one.

I'm interested to know why you think decreasing takeout will lead to some great revival of racing. Exchange wagering has a significantly better chance to help turn things around. Going from 20.68% on exotics to 22.68% while leaving the WPS takeout the same is going to make a difference for CA racing. The CA racing model is completely broken. Trying to survive with meets like what they're offering at Hollywood is never going to work.
So let's make takeout 50% for WPS and then we can have really really big purses. I'm sure that will work!
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 12-07-2010, 12:02 PM
Scav Scav is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Northwest of The Chi
Posts: 16,012
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
I'm not for egregious takeout increases but there are two valid reasons for this instance:

1.) The new levels are still extremely competitive with the nationwide average.

2.) The increased takeout will enable them to increase purses and make a last ditch effort to revitalize CA racing, which is headed down a dark and lonely path.

Contrary to what HANA may lead you to believe, takeout decreases are not the panacea of racing.
People just don't get there has to be a happy medium. Unfortunately people see the industry as a pyramid instead of as a circle. The quicker they get to the circle mentality, the better off the industry will be. Problem is that people are bred to think the pyramid mentality.
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 12-07-2010, 12:02 PM
RockHardTen1985 RockHardTen1985 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 11,208
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35 View Post
So let's make takeout 50% for WPS and then we can have really really big purses. I'm sure that will work!
How ignorant can 1 be?
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 12-07-2010, 12:03 PM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: USA
Posts: 9,687
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985 View Post
How ignorant can 1 be?
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 12-07-2010, 12:04 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35 View Post
So let's make takeout 50% for WPS and then we can have really really big purses. I'm sure that will work!
Yeah, that's exactly what I said.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 12-07-2010, 12:06 PM
The Indomitable DrugS's Avatar
The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,007
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
At the very least, the increased purses at the beginning of the meet have attracted Steve Asmussen to go out there for the first time and for trainers that left like Eric Guillot to return.
They have Asmussen back for one meet because of dirt (he will be gone come HP) and they get Guillot to return ... wow.


Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
I'm interested to know why you think decreasing takeout will lead to some great revival of racing.
It's a long, long term process - but with the takeout rates where they are at - betting horses will always be viewed as sucker bait. The slide will continue.

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Exchange wagering has a significantly better chance to help turn things around.
I'd believe in Santa Clause, the Tooth Fairy, and the Easter Bunny before I believe the powers that be have enough of a clue to not screw up exchange wagering.
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 12-07-2010, 12:07 PM
randallscott35's Avatar
randallscott35 randallscott35 is offline
Idlewild Airport
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: USA
Posts: 9,687
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by NTamm1215 View Post
Yeah, that's exactly what I said.
Pretty much. Sadly the econ lesson of taxing something makes it a deterrent hasn't been learned.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 12-07-2010, 12:13 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
They have Asmussen back for one meet because of dirt (he will be gone come HP) and they get Guillot to return ... wow.

It's a long, long term process - but with the takeout rates where they are at - betting horses will always be viewed as sucker bait. The slide will continue.

I'd believe in Santa Clause, the Tooth Fairy, and the Easter Bunny before I believe the powers that be have enough of a clue to not screw up exchange wagering.

Why should SA give a crap about Hollywood? We're talking about Santa Anita right now. Asmussen could to to Thailand after the meet for all SA cares.

Whether the takeout is 20%, 22%, or 30% the bettors are going to be looked at as suckers. What other group of people are willing to bet into something that's filtered so heavily? The takeout going up 2% is not going to change the way Frank Stronach, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jeff Mullins or Joel Rosario view the bettors.

I agree with you about exchange wagering. When push comes to shove they'll f.uck it up I'm sure.
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 12-07-2010, 12:15 PM
NTamm1215 NTamm1215 is offline
Havre de Grace
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 5,629
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by randallscott35 View Post
Pretty much. Sadly the econ lesson of taxing something makes it a deterrent hasn't been learned.
If I needed an econ lesson I would have given you a ring. I don't. You grossly exaggerated what I said, attempted to pass it off as what I said then attempted to point out the inaccuracy in what I said, when it was really your insane exaggeration that you actually mocked.
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 08:58 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.