Multi-win bet trick move

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I notice you can bet on tracks before the days scratches start coming into the system.

Basically - the scenario would involve a pick 3, pick 4, or pick 6 that you'd otherwise like if not for a confusing and wide open looking race with a lot of first time starters later on in the sequence.

If you're playing where the rules put you on the favorite with a scratch - why not place a bet prior to the scratches singling every horse in the field in that one dizzy race with the horses you like in surrounding races?

Basically - once the scratches are in - if any horse in that race scratched you'll have a ticket with a scratched horse that puts you singled on whoever the eventual betting favorite will become. You cancel all the tickets and get refunded of horses who didn't scratch.

There will be times when you can get yourself singled via scratch to a debuter who was 8/1 on the morning line - but bet to even money. Such a horse won't be worth the even money closing odds ... but his true odds in a multi win will be far greater. Everyone looks to spread in those type of races and a lot of people have no idea where the money is going to go till they see the board. You just have to be careful not to do in a situation where the rules dictate you get a conso.

Looking forward to giving this a try later in the year when 2yo racing starts. Should have a lot of chances.

[blackthroatedwind]

You're theoretically right, but the problem may be that the sample size is not likely to be large enough for your advantage to kick in.

[iamthelurker]

Pick six is mine now. MUWHAHAHAHAHA

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

You're theoretically right, but the problem may be that the sample size is not likely to be large enough for your advantage to kick in.

Yep - but it's still a nifty play I'm looking forward to using when the right situation arises.

It feels like something that might have worked many, many times for me last year - assuming I got the needed scratch and had the right opinion in the surrounding races.

To use an example of the inflated payoffs with a high profile horse for people who aren't following... Dancinginherdreams debuted in a race at Keeneland last October with 9 first time starters and three shabby looking experienced horses. She was bet to 3/2 odds and won by 5. A 6/1 shot and 5/2 favorite won the two prior races and made up a $80.40 double. The pick 3 into her paid $518.40 - more than 5/1 on the double.

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

Pick six is mine now. MUWHAHAHAHAHA

Exactly!

The day Turbulent Design debuted at Oak Tree last October - you had a pair of big field 2yo MSW races loaded with debuters back in the pick six sequence.

The kind of races that can discourage people from playing the pick 6. Turbulent Design ($5.40) won debuting as the favorite. The winner of the other 2yo race was an experienced horse who paid $3.40 as none of the debuters got bet hard.

That pick six included four winning post time favorites - a 3rd choice - and a 6th choice and paid $35,787 for six and $190.40 for five

In theory - I think a strategic edge could be created in the p6 in those two races by singling a scratched horse (both races had two scratches a piece) thus assuring you coverage to the favorite in both races - and leaving you with 4 races and room to spread ... while other tickets are more apt to want to spread in the baby races leaving them with less coverage in the established form races.

California loves ending P6's with horrid MCL 32 races often heavy with firsters and occasionally difficult to figure who will go favored. I bet it would be very tedious and expensive buying all of those tickets in the morning and canceling most all of them or all of them by noon. Still, it's something I know a teller could have got away with 10 years ago - and I'd bet they could still get away with that today at most places.