Gulfstream Wednesday....

RockHardTen1985 · #1 02-08-2011, 02:05 PM

Race 4, Lets discuss it.

Im having a hard time with it. Appears to be a good amount of speed, and Todds horse looks OK. The problem is that horse beat nothings last time and pulled a dream trip doing it. Not to mention he will be really overbet because of connections, pedigree Etc. I dont trust Motions horse, but maybe that one is OK sprinting?? I am starting to lean towards the 1 entry.

knickslions2 · #2 02-08-2011, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Race 4, Lets discuss it.

Im having a hard time with it. Appears to be a good amount of speed, and Todds horse looks OK. The problem is that horse beat nothings last time and pulled a dream trip doing it. Not to mention he will be really overbet because of connections, pedigree Etc. I dont trust Motions horse, but maybe that one is OK sprinting?? I am starting to lean towards the 1 entry.

I kind of like the 7 Senor Dehere. I need to take a better look at it tonight when I have some time. I'll look at the 1.

Port Conway Lane · #3 02-08-2011, 02:49 PM

I lean to the 5 and 7, the lighter raced,surface proven runners not exiting a maiden race.

RockHardTen1985 · #4 02-08-2011, 02:59 PM

The 7 Toga race crushes this field, can he get back to that though? He really beat no one. The second place finisher is OK, but he has never been back on turf. I guess you can toss the Keeneland effort and the turf route, and say he is a grass sprinter. I dont know??? Avenging Spirit was even money that day, at the time it was his third loss as the chalk, even when he was not the favorite he is always well bet. He seemed to have a lot of potential early on, but he has really turned into not much. This is the horse I want to like, but I can see Todd being 8-5 and this horse being 5-2 and everyone else being an overlay.

paulo537 · #5 02-08-2011, 03:20 PM

First, it's a pretty poor betting race (7 betting #s) unless you have a pretty strong lean on a non-fave.

I don't see much speed at all. Red Jag isn't likely to outjump all of these and even if he does, he's got the 5, as I see it, and perhaps also the 2, right on top of him.

The 1A, 4, 6 and 7 aren't going anywhere early, imo. I suppose the 7 could send, but why would they? Who knows about the 2. He's pretty unlikely to last in any case.

I'd best guess that after 1/4 mile, Fiscal Stimulus leads or control-presses outside the 1 a/o 2, with the 3 --assuming he breaks clean-- getting a pretty good trip.

To me, the race chalks out 3 wide, which makes it a lousy betting race. If somehow the 1 and 2 take far more action than I expect, maybe Fiscal Stimulus gets lost on the board a bit and goes off 6-7/1 , I'd bet him to win or play 5/37.

RockHardTen1985 · #6 02-08-2011, 03:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paulo537

First, it's a pretty poor betting race (7 betting #s) unless you have a pretty strong lean on a non-fave.

I don't see much speed at all. Red Jag isn't likely to outjump all of these and even if he does, he's got the 5, as I see it, and perhaps also the 2, right on top of him.

The 1A, 4, 6 and 7 aren't going anywhere early, imo. I suppose the 7 could send, but why would they? Who knows about the 2. He's pretty unlikely to last in any case.

I'd best guess that after 1/4 mile, Fiscal Stimulus leads or control-presses outside the 1 a/o 2, with the 3 --assuming he breaks clean-- getting a pretty good trip.

To me, the race chalks out 3 wide, which makes it a lousy betting race. If somehow the 1 and 2 take far more action than I expect, maybe Fiscal Stimulus gets lost on the board a bit and goes off 6-7/1 , I'd bet him to win or play 5/37.

The 6 is not running early? Take a better look.

paulo537 · #7 02-08-2011, 04:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

The 6 is not running early? Take a better look.

He's seen the track once in 30 days and four times in the last 88. He was a bit lucky to beat Really S two back. On that day, Mcl25s ran a faster opening 1/4.

He was an 8x maiden who had gone off at 2/1 or less in 5 of his last 7 starts when he won. In all these races, he either failed or only marginally contended on the lead.

He couldn't keep up last race on the bump and was off 15-1 off his win. And now, not training well at all, you really expect him to run better early?

Really?

Please tell me how this is going to happen.

ateamstupid · #8 02-08-2011, 04:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paulo537

First, it's a pretty poor betting race (7 betting #s) unless you have a pretty strong lean on a non-fave.

I don't see much speed at all. Red Jag isn't likely to outjump all of these and even if he does, he's got the 5, as I see it, and perhaps also the 2, right on top of him.

The 1A, 4, 6 and 7 aren't going anywhere early, imo. I suppose the 7 could send, but why would they? Who knows about the 2. He's pretty unlikely to last in any case.

I'd best guess that after 1/4 mile, Fiscal Stimulus leads or control-presses outside the 1 a/o 2, with the 3 --assuming he breaks clean-- getting a pretty good trip.

To me, the race chalks out 3 wide, which makes it a lousy betting race. If somehow the 1 and 2 take far more action than I expect, maybe Fiscal Stimulus gets lost on the board a bit and goes off 6-7/1 , I'd bet him to win or play 5/37.

I see the race pretty much the exact same way. It's a pass for me.

RockHardTen1985 · #9 02-08-2011, 04:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by paulo537

He's seen the track once in 30 days and four times in the last 88. He was a bit lucky to beat Really S two back. On that day, Mcl25s ran a faster opening 1/4.

He was an 8x maiden who had gone off at 2/1 or less in 5 of his last 7 starts when he won. In all these races, he either failed or only marginally contended on the lead.

He couldn't keep up last race on the bump and was off 15-1 off his win. And now, not training well at all, you really expect him to run better early?

Really?

Please tell me how this is going to happen.

I think he is a slug, but will be an early pace factor. On/press.

paulo537 · #10 02-08-2011, 04:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I think he is a slug, but will be an early pace factor. On/press.

LOL.

Good luck.

Dahoss · #11 02-08-2011, 05:19 PM

Terrible race to have a discussion about. Stratford Hill looked like a future stake winner last time and he'll probably win, but who wants to bet him as the favorite?

You're better off eating lunch and watching the race than betting it.

VOL JACK · #12 02-08-2011, 05:20 PM

I think I will take a shot with him at 5/1 or more.

RockHardTen1985 · #13 02-08-2011, 06:49 PM

Since the 4th sucks.

I have no clue who to like. Anyone have any opinion? Clement has a Giants Causeway half to Medaglia D'Oro. That one has every right to be a runner, and Clement can fire first out. Likely underlay though. If anyone has a good reasson to like anything in this spot let me know. Its been 40min already and nothing is jumping out. Hows this for original Mott and Clement.

MaTH716 · #14 02-08-2011, 07:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Since the 4th sucks.

I have no clue who to like. Anyone have any opinion? Clement has a Giants Causeway half to Medaglia D'Oro. That one has every right to be a runner, and Clement can fire first out. Likely underlay though. If anyone has a good reasson to like anything in this spot let me know. Its been 40min already and nothing is jumping out. Hows this for original Mott and Clement.

I think the 4th is more interesting then the 6th. The 6th seems like it could be a crapshoot. For some reason I think that the Toner horse could hit the board at a price.

RockHardTen1985 · #15 02-08-2011, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

I think the 4th is more interesting then the 6th. The 6th seems like it could be a crapshoot. For some reason I think that the Toner horse could hit the board at a price.

Anything clever in the 4th? I think the 1 can win. The 1 is speed of speed, and the 1a could run late. Im not talking at 4-1 though. Im hoping 8-1.

knickslions2 · #16 02-08-2011, 07:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Anything clever in the 4th? I think the 1 can win. The 1 is speed of speed, and the 1a could run late. Im not talking at 4-1 though. Im hoping 8-1.

1 should get out and be the one they have to catch. Not sure he will hold on. Still like the 7 but can't see it more then 5-2. Maybe Pletcher will get really over bet and 7 sneak up to 7-2.

RockHardTen1985 · #17 02-08-2011, 08:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by knickslions2

1 should get out and be the one they have to catch. Not sure he will hold on. Still like the 7 but can't see it more then 5-2. Maybe Pletcher will get really over bet and 7 sneak up to 7-2.

As far as the betting goes I think the 1 will be around 6-5, the 7 anywhere from 5-2 to maybe 7-2 and then everyone else.

RockHardTen1985 · #18 02-08-2011, 08:07 PM

Im thinking stongly about all. 1/all/3.
If I catch the 1 in the first leg, Im looking strong.

Dahoss · #19 02-08-2011, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

As far as the betting goes I think the 1 will be around 6-5, the 7 anywhere from 5-2 to maybe 7-2 and then everyone else.

If the entry is 6/5 (hilarious) than what is Stratford Hill going to be oddwise?

RockHardTen1985 · #20 02-08-2011, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dahoss

If the entry is 6/5 (hilarious) than what is Stratford Hill going to be oddwise?

I meant the Todd, clearly. I have only said it 5x in this thread. I think the entry could be near 8-1.
Sorry for making an obvious mistake.