Best opening 8f's run in the Ky Derby

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Moss published all of his pace figures for past KY Derby's over at DRF. Based on his chart ... below are the 8f Beyers for each year.

I also included who would get the fastest number on Ragozin Sheets / Thoro-Graph sheets.


2010: Noble's Promise (109 Beyer) - fastest sheet number for a mile to Discreetly Mine (4w, 4w, with a 105 Beyer)

2009: Join In The Dance (98 Beyer) - Pioneerof The Nile (3w, 3w, with a 97 Beyer)

2008: Big Brown (104 Beyer) - Big Brown (5w, 4w, with a 104 Beyer)

2007: Hard Spun (104 Beyer) - Any Given Saturday (3w, 5w, with a 97 Beyer)

2006: Barbaro (98 Beyer) - Barbaro (3w, 3w, with a 98 Beyer)

2005: High Fly (109 Beyer) - Bellamy Road (4w, 3w, with a 109 Beyer)

2004: Lion Heart (112 Beyer) - Smarty Jones (2w, 3w with a 112 Beyer)

2003: Peace Rules (106 Beyer) - Empire Maker (4w, 4w with a 103 Beyer)

2002: War Emblem (101 Beyer) - Came Home (5w, 4w, with a 96 Beyer)

2001: Congaree (112 Beyer) - Point Given (4w, 4w, with a 109 Beyer)

2000: Captain Steve (104 Beyer) - Captain Steve (2w, 4w with a 104)

1999: Cat Thief (104 Beyer) - Charismatic (5w, 4w, with a 101)

1998: Real Quiet (117 Beyer) - tie Real Quiet (1w, 4w, with a 117) and Indian Charlie (3w, 3w, with a 115)

1997: Free House (106 Beyer) - Silver Charm (3w, 3w, with a 105)

1996: Unbridled's Song (115 Beyer) - Unbridled's Song (4w, 3w, with a 115)

1995: Serena's Song (106 Beyer) - tie Thunder Gulch (3w, 4w, with a 105) and Afternoon Deelites (4w, 5w, with a 101)


Uncle Mo seems pretty destined to wind up on the right hand side. You know Velazquez will have him stalking wide.

Whoever said Point Given wasn't a miler? If you factor in ground loss - he's basically run the best opening mile in the Ky Derby since '98. He faded by 10 lengths in the final quarter mile though - Monarchos and Invisible Ink went by him in the stretch like he was standing still.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The 1998 pace was the strongest of them all.

Old Trieste set it - and couldn't even carry it for a mile


Old Trieste:



The 1996 pace was outright 2nd fastest ... Honour and Glory set that pace and also couldn't even carry it for a mile. He returned to win the Met Mile at 12/1 odds next time out.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Another thing to note - seven different horses who ran the best 8f sheet number went on to win the race...

Real Quiet (1w, 4w, with a 117 Beyer)
Smarty Jones (2w, 3w with a 112 )
Big Brown (5w, 4w, with a 104 )
Thunder Gulch (3w, 4w, with a 105)
Charismatic (5w, 4w, with a 101)
Silver Charm (3w, 3w, with a 105)
Barbaro (3w, 3w, with a 98)

However, that doesn't exactly mean they had an ideal trip. If anything, they had the anti-Calvin Borel trip ... 'raced wide, placed forward' instead of 'rode rail, taken back with no regard at all for position'

Of the seven...

Real Quiet won the Preakness easily next out at 5/2 odds.

Smarty Jones won the Preakness by 11.5 lengths next out - his Beyer improving 11 points from a 107 to 118.

Big Brown won the Preakness by over 5 lengths with another similar wide move - won despite running down. Came back bleeding.

Thunder Gulch was beaten less than a length at 7/2 in the Preakness. But won 4 major races in a row after that - including the Belmont and Travers.

Charismatic won the Preakness next out at 8/1 odds.

Silver Charm won the Preakness next out at 3/1.

Barbaro broke down in the Preakness. He pressed such a slow pace in the Derby - that he shouldn't even be included with these anyway.

That's a record of 7-5-0-1 in the Preakness ... four of them non-favorites. One winning at 8/1. 6-5-0-1 if you disregard Barbaro.

Point Given, Bellamy Road, Indian Charlie, and Unbridled's Song all ran extremely underrated races in the Derby.

Skip Away was 5w, 7w while trying to keep up with the Honour And Glory/Unbridled's Song pace. He got killed.


Here are the horses who've won the KY Derby with a 1st call Moss Pace figure of 57 or lower since Beyers were first published in 1991....

16: Mine That Bird
34: Street Sense
35: Grindstone
44: Fusaichi Pegasus
45: Monarchos
45: Strike The Gold
48: Sea Hero
53: Lil E Tee
54: Giacomo

Of those nine winners - none of them repeated in the Preakness or Belmont.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Point Given, Bellamy Road, Indian Charlie, and Unbridled's Song all ran extremely underrated races in the Derby.

.

[Port Conway Lane]

Just curious, where would Victory Gallop's derby pace figure fall into place with the derby winners ?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Victory Gallop ran - what would translate to a 78 Beyer for 6fs and a 107 Beyer for 8fs.

He was a deep closer like Street Sense - he had gigantic moves on the far turn and often the momentum might or might not carry him home.

Indian Charlie ran a killer race - he outsprinted horses like Favorite Trick and Artax - put Old Trieste away easily after about 7 furlongs - and Midnight Lute's sire jumped on top of him before he could ever catch a breather. Very impressive to still finish 3rd - after a 3w, 3w, 115 Beyer for a mile.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Victory Gallop ran - what would translate to a 78 Beyer for 6fs and a 107 Beyer for 8fs.

He was a deep closer like Street Sense - he had gigantic moves on the far turn and often the momentum might or might not carry him home.

Indian Charlie ran a killer race - he outsprinted horses like Favorite Trick and Artax - put Old Trieste away easily after about 7 furlongs - and Midnight Lute's sire jumped on top of him before he could ever catch a breather. Very impressive to still finish 3rd - after a 3w, 3w, 115 Beyer for a mile.

I can appreciate the efforts of horses that do the dirty work up front like IC but I was more interested in the first call moss pace figure of VG. Is the 78 beyer for 6f the first call pace figure ? What I'm getting at is that not all on the list of winners who had low first call pace figures had poor efforts when they ran back, although four were off the board.(I think)


I noticed the only derby/preakness winner over the span who didn't have the best 8f sheet # was Funny Cide. Poor guy just eludes recognition.

I forgot War Emblem as well.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

What I'm getting at is that not all on the list of winners who had low first call pace figures had poor efforts when they ran back, although four were off the board.

I don't have Victory Gallop's first call Moss pace number - because he didn't win - but it would be in the high 30's to low 40's.

I hear what you're saying ... however ... the 11 Derby winners that ran a first call Moss Pace figure of 58 or higher accounted for 7 horses who won the Preakness next time out.

Of the four who failed to win the Preakness next time out ...

Go For Gin was 2nd beaten less than a length.

Thunder Gulch was also beaten less than a length

Barbaro broke down and Super Saver didn't do crap - but remember - he didn't beat a great Derby field. Ice Box was 2nd.

Basically - take Barbaro out - and the record is 7 wins out of 10 - with 2 near misses.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Point Given, Bellamy Road, Indian Charlie, and Unbridled's Song all ran extremely underrated races in the Derby.

Underrated by who? I thought they all ran magnificently.

Especially the two Bafferts.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Victory Gallop ran - what would translate to a 78 Beyer for 6fs and a 107 Beyer for 8fs.

He was a deep closer like Street Sense - he had gigantic moves on the far turn and often the momentum might or might not carry him home.

Indian Charlie ran a killer race - he outsprinted horses like Favorite Trick and Artax - put Old Trieste away easily after about 7 furlongs - and Midnight Lute's sire jumped on top of him before he could ever catch a breather. Very impressive to still finish 3rd - after a 3w, 3w, 115 Beyer for a mile.

Plus, he got hurt, and I thought he was making up ground on the top two at the end of the race.

Awesome horse.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I don't have Victory Gallop's first call Moss pace number - because he didn't win - but it would be in the high 30's to low 40's.

I hear what you're saying ... however ... the 11 Derby winners that ran a first call Moss Pace figure of 58 or higher accounted for 7 horses who won the Preakness next time out.

I hand picked VG because horses with his style are the exception to the rule (the rule being first call MPF >58) and although he didn't win the derby, in terms of lengths beaten he came closer than any single winner of a TC race to take all three legs since '78, and closer than many who have won 2 of the 3 legs.

I would guess the projected first call MPF for Unbridled would have been below 58 and he came back to run a good yet unsuccessful 2nd to his main rival, very similar to VG when both were forced to be closer to the early pace which took away from their closing punch.

The only derby/preakness winner I can recall (since Affirmed) whose likely derby MPF was below 58 had to be Pleasant Colony. Perhaps Alysheba, I'm not sure how far back he was early on.

One other thought. If Bellamy Road ran an extremely underrated race Closing Argument should be included. (I hope Jon White doesn't read this before he goes on air.)

[Port Conway Lane]

Here are the horses who've won the KY Derby with a 1st call Moss Pace figure of 57 or lower since Beyers were first published in 1991....

16: Mine That Bird
34: Street Sense
35: Grindstone
44: Fusaichi Pegasus
45: Monarchos
45: Strike The Gold
48: Sea Hero
53: Lil E Tee
54: Giacomo

Of those nine winners - none of them repeated in the Preakness or Belmont.

The scariest fact about this list is that Giacomo was the most productive runner after the Belmont.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

The scariest fact about this list is that Giacomo was the most productive runner after the Belmont.

You would say that Giacomo was more productive than Street Sense? Giacomo had his doors blown off in the Preakness and Belmont and didn't win another race until the '06 San Diego Handicap. At least Street Sense won the Jim Dandy and Travers, albeit against very soft competition. I would say Street Sense was more productive.

I would also say that Strike the Gold was more productive despite only winning another three races and one of them being an allowance. He did win the PImlico Special and Nassau County Handicap in consecutive starts in 1992 and finished 2nd in the Jockey Club Gold Cup the same year, just ahead of subsequent BC Classic winner A.P. Indy.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You would say that Giacomo was more productive than Street Sense? Giacomo had his doors blown off in the Preakness and Belmont and didn't win another race until the '06 San Diego Handicap. At least Street Sense won the Jim Dandy and Travers, albeit against very soft competition. I would say Street Sense was more productive.

I would also say that Strike the Gold was more productive despite only winning another three races and one of them being an allowance. He did win the PImlico Special and Nassau County Handicap in consecutive starts in 1992 and finished 2nd in the Jockey Club Gold Cup the same year, just ahead of subsequent BC Classic winner A.P. Indy.

I'll take that back about SS,I didn't recall those spa victories. I guess all I remembered was both horses finished 4th in the BCC. Strike the Gold's wins trump Giocomo's grade 3. I was too lazy to look it up. I knew I could count on someone to jog my memory.

[Indian Charlie]

Fupeg also won that very fast mile stakes, I think it was the Jerome.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Here's the first turn position in the '95 Derby.



The horse setting the pace with the black line to his inside is 18th place finisher Honour And Glory - he won the Met Mile in 1:32 4/5 at 12/1 next time out. Honour and Glory was 3rd in that years BC Sprint.

Unbridled's Song has the blue line. He finished 5th in one of the all-time greatest performances in Ky Derby history.

Skip Away has the red line - he gets caught 5 wide on the first turn and 7 wide on the 2nd turn chasing that pace. He ended up 12th by 17.

Louis Quatorze has the yellow line - he ended up 16th beaten 24 lengths. He won the Preakness next time out - setting the stakes record and equalling Secretariat's unoffical Preakness record time. Also was 2nd by a nose in the BC Classic.


Grindstone - the winner of this race - was loose on an uncontested early lead - while facing just four other plodders in division 2 of this race. He has the green line.





Wire-to-wire Preakness winner:




Preakness 2nd:

SKIP AWAY

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Point Given had to deal with the same type of thing as Unbridled's Song.



Songandaprayer is setting the KY Derby pace with the red line. Congaree the blue - and Point Given the green line.



Point Given ran some pretty big races - he won the Travers with a 117 Beyer wearing a bar shoe. He won the Belmont by over a dozen lengths - Ky Derby 1-2 finishers Monarchos and Invisible Ink were both obliterated in that Belmont.

However, I think the KY Derby might have been the best race Point Given ever ran in his career - he wasn't a natural miler and Congaree was.