Welcome to the Kentucky Derby, Shackleford

randallscott35 · #2 04-03-2011, 05:51 PM

He's done enough

#3 04-03-2011, 05:52 PM

"That was wunderbra!! I made the best track in all the world!"

The Indomitable DrugS · #4 04-03-2011, 06:08 PM

Why not?

Shackleford was best in that race. This wasn't yet another case of a speed horse majorly over performing in a Derby prep because of a slow pace and better horses not being allowed to use their early speed.

They went over 2 full seconds faster in the first half mile than Older males in a Grade 3 stake 30 minutes prior ... Flashpoint was not going to clear from out there unless he was gunned. 12/1 Ron The Greek made a wide rally from dead last in the Grade 3 for older male to finish just one position behind dream trip overbet 2/1 pacesetter Colizeo.

The last 1/8th of the Florida Derby was 13.69 - the last 3fs 39.44 - over a track that wasn't exactly slow.

Sure - Shackleford has almost no chance in the Derby - unless The Factor and maybe one or two other speeds all break very bad. But they can take heart in knowing they were best today.

justindew · #5 04-03-2011, 06:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Why not?

Shackleford was best in that race. This wasn't yet another case of a speed horse majorly over performing in a Derby prep because of a slow pace and better horses not being allowed to use their early speed.

They went over 2 full seconds faster in the first half mile than Older males in a Grade 3 stake 30 minutes prior ... Flashpoint was not going to clear from out there unless he was gunned. 12/1 Ron The Greek made a wide rally from dead last in the Grade 3 for older male to finish just one position behind dream trip overbet 2/1 pacesetter Colizeo.

The last 1/8th of the Florida Derby was 13.69 - the last 3fs 39.44 - over a track that wasn't exactly slow.

Sure - Shackleford has almost no chance in the Derby - unless The Factor and maybe one or two other speeds all break very bad. But they can take heart in knowing they were best today.

By "best", you must mean "best of the horses not named Dialed In." No one closed today.

What sucks is that the truth is now out on To Honor and Serve and Soldat.

randallscott35 · #6 04-03-2011, 06:11 PM

THAS was too close to that pace. I'll play him back in the Derby

The Indomitable DrugS · #7 04-03-2011, 06:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

By "best", you must mean "best of the horses not named Dialed In." No one closed today.

What sucks is that the truth is now out on To Honor and Serve and Soldat.

If you really that that was a speed biased track - Ron The Greek in the prior race was about five miles the best at 12/1. He got no pace at all to work with - and still made the same move Dialed In did.

Certainly ran a better figure than Dialed In. Dialed In was the only closer in a race overflowing with speed. No different than Ice Box in last years Fla Derby.

tjfla · #8 04-03-2011, 06:18 PM

Just what the KY Derby needs ANOTHER front runner

Can we please get 1 more deep closer

The Indomitable DrugS · #9 04-03-2011, 06:29 PM

I thought there was one point when Shackleford was trading at 250/1 odds - but the only screen capture I took early on had him available at 130 for small money.

Even though the pace was very fast - he was probably the only horse in this race other than Dialed In who wasn't trying to have the speed trained out of him in the morning. McLaughlin would have been better off drilling on Soldat in Baffert-esque fashion. The change of tactics really backfired.

blackthroatedwind · #10 04-03-2011, 07:26 PM

I'm thrilled about Dialed In, but obviously DrugS is right that Shackleford ran the best race. Even if you think the track was kind to speed, take a look at where the other speeds finished.

Speaking of finishing, has Stay Thirsty crossed the wire yet?

NTamm1215 · #11 04-03-2011, 07:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm thrilled about Dialed In, but obviously DrugS is right that Shackleford ran the best race. Even if you think the track was kind to speed, take a look at where the other speeds finished.

Speaking of finishing, has Stay Thirsty crossed the wire yet?

At least he was in the field so that To Honor and Serve wasn't the biggest phony in the race.

tjfla · #12 04-03-2011, 07:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm thrilled about Dialed In, but obviously DrugS is right that Shackleford ran the best race. Even if you think the track was kind to speed, take a look at where the other speeds finished.

Speaking of finishing, has Stay Thirsty crossed the wire yet?

Stay Thirsty has until May 6th to cross the wire-$260,000 means already in

blackthroatedwind · #13 04-03-2011, 07:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjfla

Stay Thirsty has until May 6th to cross the wire-$260,000 means already in

In what?

justindew · #14 04-03-2011, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm thrilled about Dialed In, but obviously DrugS is right that Shackleford ran the best race. Even if you think the track was kind to speed, take a look at where the other speeds finished.

Speaking of finishing, has Stay Thirsty crossed the wire yet?

I see what you guys are saying and I was probably too quick to say Dialed In ran the best race. But the "other speeds" were To Honor and Serve and a sprinter trying two turns for the first time breaking from the outside. And the only horse who passed either of them was Dialed In.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #15 04-03-2011, 08:03 PM

flashpoint= flash in the pan...met mile

Betsy · #16 04-03-2011, 08:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by randallscott35

THAS was too close to that pace. I'll play him back in the Derby

I doubt he's going to the Derby - I'd be really surprised if he does as he was beaten many lengths and did not improve at all. He's always going to be up close - he can't rate well from off the pace. Just like in the FOY, his "move" was pretty weak - he never looked like he ever had the measure of Shackelford.

NTamm1215 · #17 04-03-2011, 08:20 PM

I have a feeling Dialed In's race today would look great on a Fat Chart.

Travis Stone · #18 04-03-2011, 08:26 PM

Shackleford I believe is literally 20th on the earnings list... with quite a few decent pots yet to go. Yea, yea... anything can happen, and often does. But, what does it say about the system when the runner-up to the Derby's second choice (by a whisker) might not be in the race?

blackthroatedwind · #19 04-03-2011, 08:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Shackleford I believe is literally 20th on the earnings list... with quite a few decent pots yet to go. Yea, yea... anything can happen, and often does. But, what does it say about the system when the runner-up to the Derby's second choice (by a whisker) might not be in the race?

It says it's working?

Why should one decent performance, after several mediocre ones, earn a horse a spot in the Derby? I know, it has earned others, but that doesn't mean they all should get a spot.

He had the same fair chance everyone did.

justindew · #20 04-03-2011, 08:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Shackleford I believe is literally 20th on the earnings list... with quite a few decent pots yet to go. Yea, yea... anything can happen, and often does. But, what does it say about the system when the runner-up to the Derby's second choice (by a whisker) might not be in the race?

$200,000 will be enough.