First Race after the Layoff

[Sightseek]

Any tips/thoughts on determining when to bet a horse running his first race off a layoff or deciding that its "going to need one"?

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Any tips/thoughts on determining when to bet a horse running his first race off a layoff or deciding that its "going to need one"?

Well tons of things to consider here in my opinion.

1) has the work schedule been consistant over the past couple of months
2) how was the horse performing prior to the layoff
3) what is the trainer % with horses off of a layoff
4) at what level is the horse competing. Example: If the horse was competing in $30k allowance races and he is entered in a $10k claiming race then that tells me they want to get rid of the horse. Then you have to ask why do they want to get rid of him.
5) what is the competition in the race
6) are wraps on that werent there before the layoff

Take all that and then make a decision.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

some trainers are great at bringing them back live..but for me it would be on a case to case basis..depending on conditions of the race ect..

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well tons of things to consider here in my opinion.

1) has the work schedule been consistant over the past couple of months
2) how was the horse performing prior to the layoff
3) what is the trainer % with horses off of a layoff
4) at what level is the horse competing. Example: If the horse was competing in $30k allowance races and he is entered in a $10k claiming race then that tells me they want to get rid of the horse. Then you have to ask why do they want to get rid of him.
5) what is the competition in the race
6) are wraps on that werent there before the layoff

Take all that and then make a decision.

Thanks! Regarding #6, and I hope this doesn't sound like a stupid question, but is that something you have to notice yourself by having seen the horse in the paddock before or do they note that in the PP's? I recall several people calling into the Down the Stretch show (which is a Saturday a.m program shown here in NY) about Bluegrass Cat's addition of them, but I was looking more for BGC to be 'on his toes' than thinking about the wraps. Regardless, he wouldn't have breathed the same air as Bernardini in the stretch but I had never thought of the addition of them being an issue.

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Thanks! Regarding #6, and I hope this doesn't sound like a stupid question, but is that something you have to notice yourself by having seen the horse in the paddock before or do they note that in the PP's? I recall several people calling into the Down the Stretch show (which is a Saturday a.m program shown here in NY) about Bluegrass Cat's addition of them, but I was looking more for BGC to be 'on his toes' than thinking about the wraps. Regardless, he wouldn't have breathed the same air as Bernardini in the stretch but I had never thought of the addition of them being an issue.

I prob wouldnt be the best person to ask. But when I look over a horse, I always check for wraps. Wraps on the back legs concerns me more than wraps on the front. Maybe someone can chime in and answer you question.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Wraps on the back legs concerns me more than wraps on the front.

? On the east coast 90% of horses race with hind wraps?

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

? On the east coast 90% of horses race with hind wraps?

So, I dont get your point. If a horse has never raced with wraps and then I notice them on the back legs then that concerns me more so than seeing them in the front. If a horse has always used wraps then it doesnt bother me at all.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

Any tips/thoughts on determining when to bet a horse running his first race off a layoff or deciding that its "going to need one"?

Check a trainers ITM% on layoff horses. You'd be surprised how many trainers win like 10% with layoff horses but are in the money 52% usually at good prices since everybody knows who the high % guys are. You can get some live longshots especially if the horse was off form before the layoff.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

So, I dont get your point. If a horse has never raced with wraps and then I notice them on the back legs then that concerns me more so than seeing them in the front. If a horse has always used wraps then it doesnt bother me at all.

How do you keep track of who wears hind bandages?

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How do you keep track of who wears hind bandages?

I keep track. I dont bet very often and I have a tendency to follow a certain horse. Plus if I do handicap a random race, then I will go back and check the race replays to check for them.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I keep track. I dont bet very often and I have a tendency to follow a certain horse. Plus if I do handicap a random race, then I will go back and check the race replays to check for them.

Interesting...I can see your point. What about track condition, do you take into consideration. Have you found bandages added on turf to be more negative?

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Check a trainers ITM% on layoff horses. You'd be surprised how many trainers win like 10% with layoff horses but are in the money 52% usually at good prices since everybody knows who the high % guys are. You can get some live longshots especially if the horse was off form before the layoff.

Thanks!
I'm trying to get rid of my "wait and see" approach.

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Interesting...I can see your point. What about track condition, do you take into consideration. Have you found bandages added on turf to be more negative?

I will only bet a dry track (dirt) unless the track is off on Bc Day or Ky Derby day then I will bet. I love betting turf races regardless of condition. Wraps or bandages to me is a negative if they werent on in prior races regardless if the race is on dirt or turf. However, I do not make my final decision soley based on wraps.

There was a horse called Sir Batman that ran at River Downs years ago. This is my all time favorite horse. I followed him for 3 years. I noticed that he would race with wraps every other race. When he raced with wraps he performed great, without them he performed poorly. These are things that I try to find to give me an edge.

[Pointg5]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I prob wouldnt be the best person to ask. But when I look over a horse, I always check for wraps. Wraps on the back legs concerns me more than wraps on the front. Maybe someone can chime in and answer you question.

Most everything that I have heard was wraps on the front are a bad sign, although Afleet Alex added them during his 3yo campaign. They put them on Silverbulletday towards the end of her career and I just read that they added them to BGC before the Travers, that was a bad sign....

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Most everything that I have heard was wraps on the front are a bad sign, although Afleet Alex added them during his 3yo campaign. They put them on Silverbulletday towards the end of her career and I just read that they added them to BGC before the Travers, that was a bad sign....

I think wraps of any kind that are added are bad. But maybe I am wrong. Maybe the front is worse. I always have had experiece with the back being worse. Maybe someone who knows something about wraps and why they are used can share some knowledge.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I think wraps of any kind that are added are bad. But maybe I am wrong. Maybe the front is worse. I always have had experiece with the back being worse. Maybe someone who knows something about wraps and why they are used can share some knowledge.

I've read by someone who used to groom that front wraps are added because the hindend of the horse is sore so they end up putting more weight on the front. Does make sense, if you've got a sprain or anything it's usually your 'good' leg that ends up the worse for wear.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

I think wraps of any kind that are added are bad. But maybe I am wrong. Maybe the front is worse. I always have had experiece with the back being worse. Maybe someone who knows something about wraps and why they are used can share some knowledge.

Most horses that wear back bandages use them to prevent burning their heels (running down). On the east coast where the tracks are deeper they are used more frequently than the west coast. Polytracks should lessen the need for such rundowns.

[Damascus '67]

Originally Posted by Sightseek

I've read by someone who used to groom that front wraps are added because the hindend of the horse is sore so they end up putting more weight on the front. Does make sense, if you've got a sprain or anything it's usually your 'good' leg that ends up the worse for wear.

I'm no expert on the subject, but I spent 4-5 summers on the backstretch while I was growing up. The couple of trainers that I worked for called them "run down bandages" because on some tracks that have deep sandy surfaces, Delaware Park was one, some horses had a tendency to run down behind. I'm no expert on horse terminology but thier rear leg right above the hoof would get rubbed down, which is kind of like a brush burn in humans. I know this isn't the case on why wraps are used, but I don't think of it as a horse being sore...Just my take.

[SentToStud]

Fronts on a young horse for the first time can never be taken as a positve. Fronts for the 10th straight race on a cheap claimer are meaningless. Everything else is a matter of interpretation.

The main thing is this.... You see fronts on a class plunging young horse comng off a layoff without decent works, etc... and who is a short-priced favorite, you have a solid opportunity at a good score on a single race exotic (Tri, Super).

Tri and Super wagers are the way to go if you have a high confidence level a short-priced chalk is going to run out.

I've never been upset when I bet these and I'm wrong and the chalk wins easy. That's the way it goes. But when you are correct, the wins far more than outweigh the cost of tossing a lousy chalk.

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by eurobounce

Well tons of things to consider here in my opinion.

1) has the work schedule been consistant over the past couple of months
2) how was the horse performing prior to the layoff
3) what is the trainer % with horses off of a layoff
4) at what level is the horse competing. Example: If the horse was competing in $30k allowance races and he is entered in a $10k claiming race then that tells me they want to get rid of the horse. Then you have to ask why do they want to get rid of him.
5) what is the competition in the race
6) are wraps on that werent there before the layoff

Take all that and then make a decision.

I also look at how long the race is especially if it's more than 60 days. I have no stats/research on this, but if a horse is coming back in a sprint race I'm not as worried about it, if they're going a route i'm more inclined to give them a race while also taking into consideration what's mentioned above (trainer,works, has the horse fired well off a similar layoff, etc.)