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#1
06-29-2011, 10:24 PM
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6/30: Hollywood Park ($112k C/O)
Certain kinds of races can be your friend -- 7f events for me -- and others your mortal enemy. I struggle with non-stake extended distance events like Wednesday's 10f-T 7th, and ended up confused enough to leave out one of the horses that I liked initially, and it cost us the over-paying quad. Despite as sluggish a pace as you'll ever see from ALW horses, 11-2 Point of Entry could not hold off 3-1 Sky Blazer at the end of the mile and a quarter jog. The other three winners in the skein were easy enough to feature, and despite paying $8.50, $8.60 and $9.20 with $7.90 Sky Blazer, the payoff was terrific for the 4 winners: $510.50 ($1), about 3x the parlay. There's another chance to work out the kinks at 10f on grass Thursday as part of the $112k P6 carryover sequence at Hollywood, and I think I have a good idea in it. But I find these kind of events befuddling when the players lack the form stakes runners typically have when traveling 11f-13f. Hope you did OK Wednesday... Brad Free and Rich Eng join me in Hour 3 on ATR to dissect the Holly Park sextet!
HOLLYWOOD PARK POST-SCRATCHES 3rd: CLM, 3yo, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super) $112k C/O starts here.. Quirky group with obvious player War Pilot questionable given resume and recent SCR from a stake before landing here. Mullins candidate Luckarack raises tag, but has notoriously reacted negatively off good efforts.. Most Likely: #1 Diamond Geezah 2-1 3rd Next Best: #5 War Pilot 3-1 4th Exotics Use: #3 Luckarack 5-2 WON ($6.40) 4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Top pair feel like essentials on your sextet ducat, but Portfolio appears healthiest she's ever been and deserves back-up consideration at the least.. Most Likely: #7 Zees Chris 3-1 3rd Next Best: #8 Santabarbrabendita 4-1 WON ($10.40) Best Value: #1 Portfolio 6-1 2nd Super Add: #4 Dynahere 6-1 4th $1 Exacta (8-1) Paid $26.00 $1 Trifecta (8-1-7) Paid $74.10 $1 Superfecta (8-1-7-4) Paid $401.60 5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Hughesy one of the logical singles in the sequence, but what was the issue last time when offered this price initially? Bullybullybully has been knocking on the door this level, will save all the ground while in receipt of several of Mulhall's best karma moves.. Most Likely: #9 Hughesy 9-5 3rd Best Value: #1 Bullybullybully 6-1 7th Next Best: #10 Bronster 7-2 4th Super Add: #2 Bud I Crushed It 12-1 10th 6th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super) Like Bold Warrior Wednesday at Belmont, (who came through), American Lady has a huge edge in number power versus this group. Lone reservation is the conservative 'next step' approach from a team that regularly goes straight to stakes with horses like this. Single on vast majority of budget-sensitive tickets.. Most Likely: #6 American Lady 6-5 WON ($2.40) Best Value: #2 Evita's Sister 10-1 3rd Next Best: #1 Zenidekka 3-1 2nd 7th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 10f-T (DD, Super) Similar 10 panel turf affair was undoing of Wednesday quad at Belmont, and this event is an equally challenging conundrum. Lightly-raced Kazamira is now 6 with an oft-interrupted career tab. If she were utterly hopeless, Moss/Shirreffs team could make the well-bred Dynaformer a broodmare and recent spate of 5f spins says she may be ready for best.. Best Value: #2 Kazamira 6-1 4th Next Best: #5 Mutually Benefit 2-1 WON ($4.80) Exotics Use: #4 Granite Girl 5-1 5th Super Add: #6 Party With Brando 4-1 6th 8th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (Super, Super Hi-5) Getting to final leg unscathed won't be simple, and this group guarantees further anguish depending on bankroll depth. Just Imagine from O'Neill and Patriot's Voyage from Baffert are going to be leaned on heavily, but frankly, both have dents in their fenders. Matlow and Quinton's Destiny and hot-working returnees Imperial Pride and Utopian (Shirreffs again) all have hints about their possibilities. And then there are the three firsters to worry about.. Most Likely: #2 Matlow 9-2 3rd Next Best: #10 Just Imagine 7-2 2nd Best Value: #3 Quinton's Destiny 8-1 WON ($28.00) Exotics Use: #1 Patriot's Voyage 5-1 6th Hi-5 Play: #7 Utopian 12-1 5th $1 Exacta (3-10) Paid $41.90 $1 Trifecta (3-10-2) Paid $134.80 <$150 P6 Play: 3: 1-3-5 4: 1-7-8 5: 1-9 6: 6 7: 2-5 8: 2-10 3x3x2x1x2x2 = 72 x $144 <$75 P4 Play: 5: 1-9-10 6: 6 7: 2-4-5-6 8: 1-2-3-7-9-10 3x1x4x6 = $72 ($36 for .50) Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-30-2011 at 08:06 PM. 
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#3
06-29-2011, 11:54 PM
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I like Woodman's Lass a bit in the 4th
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#4
06-30-2011, 09:58 AM
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I like Woodmans and Dynahere (worth watching his last race) in the 4th. In the 5th, any chance king ledley can keep that closing kick at a mile or is he just a closing sprinter? With the shades added to the 1, that one might actually have the lead with a clean break. Going 1,5,9,10 in there and then single the 9 in a backup ticket.
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#5
06-30-2011, 02:24 PM
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Race 8: The Mandella firster - Tiz Liberty - this one is an include for me...full to Tough Tiz's Sis, who granted did all her running long, but the dam and the rest of her progeny all got it done in sprints - should be classy enough for this bunch. The 10 gets a huge upgrade to Rosario which may be all he needs to push through. Baffert with blinks back on from the rail should be speedy enough to clear and set, got 1.11 flat to the 3/4 pole 2 back going a route - hoping the anchor doesn't come out on the cutback.
1,8,10
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#7
06-30-2011, 03:56 PM
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P6:
1,3,4 1,7,8 9 6 3,4,5,6 1,8,10 216.00 Last edited by Rudeboyelvis : 06-30-2011 at 07:14 PM.
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#11
06-30-2011, 05:12 PM
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Root I thought we stole a price there to kick it off - hmmmph....
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#12
06-30-2011, 05:16 PM
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Tough break for Diamond Geezah and his backers there going to his nose at the break..
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#14
06-30-2011, 05:50 PM
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Tremendous job by Brad Free for the 4th identifying the low profile outfit's ongoing use of Rosario on live horses.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#15
06-30-2011, 05:59 PM
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Just under $1,000,000 added to the original $112k pot... Amazing. We bet 9x the carryover into it...
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#16
06-30-2011, 06:21 PM
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Wow.. Rich Eng warned on Forward Commitment in the 5th. $32.20 and knocks me out. Brian Koriner.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#17
06-30-2011, 06:22 PM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#18
06-30-2011, 06:34 PM
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BELMONT C/O FRIDAY -- $26,200
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#19
06-30-2011, 06:57 PM
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Quote:
__________________
"I guess it comes down to a simple choice, really. Get busy livin' or get busy dyin'."
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#20
06-30-2011, 08:11 PM
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Quote:
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I'll be rooting for you and Dan.
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