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#1
07-07-2011, 09:05 AM
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7/7: Belmont Park (4th-9th)
Taking the annual post-Triple Crown, pre-Saratoga freshening, but too much good racing out there to completely shirk the responsibilities!
BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 4th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD) Most Likely: #2 Resoundingly 2-1 2nd Next Best: #3 Centrina 9-5 WON ($6.00) Exotics Use: #7 Speedy's Gal 5-1 3rd 5th: Rob N Gin, 3+, 8.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super) Terrific and very wide open overnight stake honoring the excellent son of Farma Way that won the Jersey Derby (G2), Hall of Fame (G2) Poker (G3), KY Cup Mile and PA Governor's Cup for Bobby Barbara and Sabine Stable.. Stormy's Majesty and Congaree half brother Sangaree make turf debuts here, and both are eligible to do OK over it.. Most Likely: #5 Beau Choix 8-1 WON ($8.80) Next Best: #2 Boots Ahead 8-1 3rd Exotics Use: #6 Sangaree 5-1 6th Super Add: #1 Stormy's Majesty 8-1 4th 6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Most Likely: #7 Paper Plane 2-1 2nd Next Best: #4 City Scamper 3-1 4th Best Value: #6 Page by Page 6-1 WON ($30.40) Exotics Use: #1 Senora Dubai 10-1 3rd 7th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super) Brutally well-matched group, and until I see SCR's, will plan on swinging for the fences. With Linda Rice having Quick Money in here and eligible for laurels, Pegasus Tommy D., (cross-entered in Saturday's 6th), may very well come out. Can't Refuse is entered in Friday's $25k CLM 7th and is 15-1 there too.. SCR #9 Can't Refuse.. Best Value: #7 Chernobyl's Hero 12-1 4th Exotics Use: #1 Vose the Host 12-1 7th Next Best: #3 Pegasus Tommy D. 5-2 2nd Super Add: #8 Saratoga Steve 10-1 6th 8th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (DD) Yet another tough set.. Best Value: #7 Katskill Bay 9-2 3rd Next Best: #3 Head Heart Hoof 7-2 5th Exotics Use: #6 The Zipster 2-1 WON ($12.60) 9th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (Super) Most Likely: #9 Risky Rachel 5-2 3rd Best Value: #3 Jackie Mo 8-1 6th Next Best: #8 Sentimental Lass 3-1 WON ($9.90) Super Add: #1 Fortheloveof Anna 8-1 4th <$75 P4 Play: 6: 4-6-7 7: 1-3-7-8 8: 3-6-7 9: 1-3-8-9 3x4x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-07-2011 at 06:03 PM. 
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#2
07-07-2011, 11:10 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
07-07-2011, 03:47 PM
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Position Runner Win Place Show 1st 6 PAGE BY PAGE $30.40 $8.30 $6.20 2nd 7 PAPER PLANE $2.50 $2.30 3rd 1 SENORA DUBAI $8.40 4th 4 CITY SCAMPER Other Payouts $2 EX (6/7) paid $90.00 $2 TRI (6/7/1) paid $727.00 $2 SPR (6/7/1/4) paid $1,889.00 $2 DD (5/6) paid $119.50 $2 P03 (3/5/6) match 3 paid $545.00
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#7
07-07-2011, 04:07 PM
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nice call
nice call in the 6th, Steve... good start to the pick 4... Good luck, will be pulling for you!
Best of Luck
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#9
07-07-2011, 09:36 PM
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Thx.. Was indeed a great betting card. Hope you did well!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#10
07-07-2011, 09:40 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-08-2011 at 06:57 AM.
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#11
07-08-2011, 12:05 AM
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I picked him third as well.....and considered it picking a loser.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#12
07-08-2011, 06:36 AM
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#13
07-08-2011, 07:42 AM
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This gets back to the Litfin discussion in the paddock. It all depends on how you view/utilize selections, and some of that chat should include familiarity with the approach of the specific handicapper. Are the 1-2-3-4 tabs a written-in-stone ranking that says the top pick is the only horse that can win? Somewhat, but hardly an imperative of how to employ the selections in wagers.
In that 6th Thursday, I suggested using the top three in the P4 including Page by Page, who felt like the third most likely winner to me, and to Andy too. Obviously, using horses in multis is confirmation that someone believes that horse can win the race. (And I think Seth's bon mot was a nod in that direction for including Page by Page on the quad ticket.) I didn't play the race individually Thursday. But as I've explained for years, I'm an exotics and multi-race player first and win bettor second. I use several horses in boxes and/or keys, typically building around the win candidate horse with the best price intra-race and with big prices inter-race, trying to snare large mutuels. I'm not keeping score of my 'top pick' for ROI because it hardly is indicative of how I'm doing at any time. I know what Andy is saying because he tweaks me about 'liking every horse' all the time. He is much more focused on individual horses as win candidates than I am, and is certainly the single best handicapper/presenter in North America when it comes to putting the public on a race's likely winner -- regularly at outrageous overlay prices. He also has the opportunity on the daily broadcast and via twitter to point out those horses on a timely basis based on situations that arise as the race card unfolds. I'm ranking horses based on my opinion of them likely winning and being in the exacta, tri and super. How people employ that opinion is up to them. Some take my 4 and box them for dime supers or exactas. During Saratoga, Tina boxes them in trifectas. I typically key the likely and the best value with the rest. A sidebar to Thursday's 6th is that the 15-1 winner wasn't key to success in my mind (other than for the multi-race bets)... it was ignoring Tagg's 7-2 Proud Dame in favor of including Hushion's 30-1 Senora Dubai. She ran third triggering the $363 tri and $945 super, so if there was something clever that I did in how I saw the race, it was that.
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 07-08-2011 at 08:13 AM.
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#14
07-08-2011, 08:08 AM
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I think this race was some kick ass handicapping from Steve but it is always tough to take 4 picks and play them to win, exacta's, tri's, supers, doubles, pick 3 - 4 - 5 - and 6's.
But reguardless of this congrats on a big race.
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#15
07-08-2011, 09:42 AM
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Well, given the Pick-4 was not hit, where was the good selection? Sorry, but sneaking a winner in as your third or fourth selection is meaningless, especially if it was merely used as part of a bet that lost. You can dress it up however you like, but unless it was ( at least ) part of a winning strategy, it is not even remotely notworthy that someone thought a fringe player versus a 1:2 shot was...a fringe player.
I think it's FAR more noteworthy that Steve didn't think 6:5 Voodeo Swinge, questionable ride or not, was even a minor player in yesterday's 4th, and he picked the winner on top. That was a race he nailed pretty well.
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Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
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#16
07-08-2011, 10:53 AM
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Linear Mode
