7/29: Saratoga (Day 7; Curlin)

[Kasept]

After a difficult morning that necessitated a run back to the home studio to get 90 minutes of ATR on the air, I proceeded to enjoy an excellent run Thursday at the Spa that resulted in the best gains of the stand thus far. I don't want to encourage people to NOT go to the track, but being at the 'battle station', at home without distraction, proved highly lucrative on a fun betting card. The most interesting lesson of the day was again the reality that having just a good idea or two -- in this case Boots Ahead in the 5th and Moon Struck Nemi in the 10th -- is more than enough to turn a Saratoga day into a sizeable winner.

I only included Boots Ahead as the 4th choice in the difficult 4th, but his $17.00 number helped boost an otherwise chalky P4 to $170 (.50). Rolling P3's with mundane winners continued to feed the kitty through the 9th, but it was 14-1 Moon Struck Nemi's smasher in the nightcap that tipped the scales. The second time turf sprinter from Ronny Werner had closing ability in a speed-laden group, and his $29.60 mutuel triggered $334 in the P4, and a $414 triple ($1) with 9-2 pacesetter Watkins Glen and 7-2 favorite Jazz Life. After producing more than $1,000 in gains, the running tab was shoved back into the black (+$750) via the one successful notion. You typically need 2-3 of these kinds of afternoons to make your meet a winner, and it's always helpful when they come early on to provide you bankroll flexability and confidence. Hope everyone did well!

Friday marks the first of two twilight racing slates at the Old Spa, with a great weekend of action on tap. Graham Motion and Tom Durkin join Seth Merrow and I Saturday on "Loose on the Lead" on Capital OTB TV-12 (9a)...


SARATOGA


PRE-SCRATCHES


1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

As P.J. Campo promised, there will be more straight claimers, and here's a good example of racing's bread-and-butter event..

Most Likely: #2 Tempest Storm 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #7 Malibu Moon Dance 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Stanford Dolly 4-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Glowing Report 6-1 6th


2nd: MSW, 3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

There are some horses here that have easily run well enough to have broken their maidens. #11 Colassal Gift is the deserving favorite, but the horses that are making their 2nd starts -- #2 Rivendell and #8 Reach a Decision -- are both 10-1 and every bit as likely to win as the outposted Clement. After those three, there are another 4-5 that are competitive, and then you have the Pletcher firster. Afte the top three, I'd lean toward those inside that will be saving ground..

Best Value: #2 Rivendell 10-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Colossal Gift 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Reach a Decision 10-1 WON ($26.20)
Super Add: #3 Smokin Star 8-1 9th


3rd: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)

Third day in a row that we encounter a curiously-assembled smallish field, this one featuring a number of familiar names. Not much pace signed on here at all which could set up a theft by a horse like Northern Giant should Nakatani seize the opportunity..

Most Likely: #2 Convocation 2-1 WON ($4.30)
Best Value: #6 Northern Giant 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Ron the Greek 3-1 2nd


4th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Cave's Valley 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Cantrushperfection 7-2 DNF
Best Value: #7 Ultimo Principle 6-1 WON ($13.00)
Super Add: #9 High Stakes Player 8-1 3rd


5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Saratoga Steve 3-1 7th
Best Value: #7 War Ballad 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Fiji Star 4-1 5th
Super Add: #1e Rice entry 5-1 4th/10th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-8-11
3: 2-3-6
4: 4-5
5: 1-4-5-7

3x3x2x4 = $72 ($36 for .50)


6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very interesting group, with many deserving of respect trying new surface (Sortilege, Thunder Lilly) or exiting excuseable tries (Itsabeautifulthing, Dixie Shoes). Natalie Victoria (3-1) is probably OK, but with so many attractive prices on fun horses from good connections, let's try to beat her. (You can protect with her in P3's, P4, or for $4, put her over the 4 below in a $1 exacta key)..

Best Value: #6 Thunder Lilly 8-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Itsabeautifulthing 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Sortilege 10-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Dixie Shoes 8-1 9th


7th: Curlin, 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Growing in stature as an alternative to the Jim Dandy. How can you not like a race that has the sons of Hollywood Wildcat (Bold Warrior) and Sightseek (Raison d'Etat) and half brother of Pine Island (Point of Entry)?

Most Likely: #1 Bold Warrior 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Raison d'Etat 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Turbo Compressor 8-1 WON ($15.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Prime Cut 7-2 3rd


8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Frazzie 7-2 4th
Next Best: #4 Ms Diller 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #2 I'm a Personal Jet 15-1 9th
Super Add: #1 Proven Right 12-1 8th


9th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (Super)

Best Value: #3 Torchme 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Angel Love 9-2 5th
Exotics Use: #12 Downhill Joey 8-1 8th
Super Add: #8 Purses Galore 5-1 3rd


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-6-7
7: 1-3-4
8: 2-4-7
9: 3-7-8-12

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[tmpg2000]

Thanks Steve Great day yesterday

[Kasept]

Jimmy Baker says he will SCR Will's Wildcat from today's Curlin in favor of Saturday's Jim Dandy...

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S

[ADJMK]

Hey Steve,
Does it look like rain today and turf races washed out ?
Thanks

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Hey Steve,
Does it look like rain today and turf races washed out ?
Thanks

Rain started. I think we might be in trouble today.

[ADJMK]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Rain started. I think we might be in trouble today.

Big trouble cashing tickets!!!
Should have washed the card out

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by ADJMK

Big trouble cashing tickets!!!
Should have washed the card out

Rain tried hard to stay away as long as it could.. Was a mess later, but at least got in a couple decent hits on the first 2 P3's ($104, $190)... You'll get 'em this weekend! Going to be beautiful, and the racing super.