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#1
06-07-2006, 05:10 PM
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Lukas Handicapping Angle
Lukas will not turn a horse out no matter what. He will keep injecting them and keep running them even with serious injuries. He will not stop running a horse until it is physically impossible for the horse to run. I don't follow the small tracks but I'm sure there are plenty of guys out there that do the exact same thing with $5,000 claimers. I'm not condonig it even with $5,000 claimers but I'm sure that there are guys that won't turn out a $5,000 claimer because they don't think it's economical. However, I am not aware of any trainer aside from Lukas that treats good horses in this way.
If you look at any normal trainer out there whether it's Pletcher, Baffert, Ellis, Canani, etc. if they have a decent horse and the horse has an injury, they will turn the horse out. In most cases, the horse will come back as good as ever. With all of these trainers, you will see their horses come back from 6 month layoffs, 9 month layofffs, and even 12+ month layoffs and come back as good as ever and have really good campaigns. You will never see this with a Lukas horse. The reason is because he won't turn the horse out until the horse is os badly hurt that the horse will never be the same. That is why you will never see a D Wayne horse come back from a layoff and have a successful campaign. When one of his horses stops running, they usually never run again. If they do make it back, they are usually so far gone that they don't last for more than 1 or 2 races. So the Lukas handicapping angle is to know that if you ever see a Lukas horse coming back from a layoff, that horse will never be the same horse again. As I said, once in a great while he may get 1 or 2 races out of the horse but that does not happen that often and that is the best case scenario. You know that the horse is not coming back sound. That is definitely good information to have. 
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#2
06-07-2006, 05:13 PM
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I agree with you 100% that guy ran GOING WILD last year in all 3 legs of the triple crown and got beat a combine 128 lengths then didn't even give the horse any time off he kept him in NY and ran him in Graded races sprinting what a joke. This guy is not the trainer he used to be and when he gets a good horse he puts them in way over their head.
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#3
06-07-2006, 05:38 PM
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I couldn't agree more. I do think however, this guys is the exact same guy he was before. He has been destroying and killing horses his whole life. Nobody noticed before because he still had enought expensive horses bought for him that would win and cover up all the terrible things this man did.
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#4
06-07-2006, 06:22 PM
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Quote:
Breeders Cup 2005 Winners Juvenile Fillies - 2YO Fillies - 1 1/16 miles Folklore/ D Wane Lukas/ E. Prado/ 1:43.85
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#5
06-07-2006, 06:42 PM
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Quote:
__________________
"Boston fans hate the Yankees, we hate the Canadiens and we hate the Lakers. It's in our DNA. It just is." - Bill Simmons
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#6
06-07-2006, 06:51 PM
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Folklore is finished. She will never run again. She didn't even make it to her 3 year old year. What would you rather do, would you arther win the BC Juvenille Filly and and have your horse never race again or would you rather not win that race but have your filly win some major 3 year old and possible 4 year old races. I know how I would answer that question. I would rather have the horse healthy and running rather than winning the one huge 2 year old race and then never running again.
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#7
06-07-2006, 06:59 PM
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Quote:
he could have bypassed the bc race, she could have still come up with an injury and been retired. she won when she was ready. and now she's worth a hell of a lot more, and her foals will sell for tons more since she was named top 2 yo filly. remember when zito had five live horses at the end of their two year old season, several of which would have been on a lot of people tickets had they run bc day? and he bypassed the race to 'save' them for the derby. remember how well they all did? he could have had a bcj champ, instead he had no 2 yo champ, and no 3 yo either. according to lukas, folklore could have come back after a layoff. but they were afraid she would be compromised, not as good. hell, you'd think you'd praise him for not running another into the ground, bringing her back after an injury! the guy can't win!
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#8
06-07-2006, 07:19 PM
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If I remember correctly, I think there was a lot of suspsicion about Folklore's condition going into that Santa Anita race. I think she only had a few works going in. I don't think she came out of the BC very well.
I don't remeber what her injury was but it was a serious injury. She is a valuable horse and they didn't think she would ever be the same again. There was no way they were going to bring her back.
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#9
06-07-2006, 07:27 PM
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THis is classic. We talk about the way Lukas runs young horses into the ground and you come back with FOLKLORE, an amazing horse trained by LUKAS that, you guessed it, career is over after her 2 year old season.
I am still wating for someone to explain why Lukas went from great to SH@% in such a hurry? and why do all of his stats and horses for that matter go way downhill once they turn 4? LUKAS supporters help me out with these 2 questions and I'll jump on board with ya.
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#10
06-07-2006, 07:40 PM
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folklore was diagnosed with a stress fracture, one that several vets said she could come back from. rather than chance it, they retired her.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#12
06-07-2006, 07:46 PM
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That is fine Danzig. I will lay off FOLKLORE. But where I come from you don't get credit or bonus points for doing the "right thing". You do however get drilled for doing the "wrong thing" over and over for years.
As the great Chris Rock once said "Black people are always trying to take credit for some stupd shi$ like "I take care of my kids!!!!" you are supposed to you dumb mother fuc$%&!, what you want a cookie?"
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#13
06-07-2006, 08:03 PM
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second, my biggest gripe is that a trainer has a horse break down and everyone says rip...but lukas has one break down, and he's villified. as if he's the only one to ever have one go down. what about horatio nelson? how many have screamed about an evidently stiff horse going to post, and then breaking down and losing his life? um, NONE. why? because he's trained by obrien, who apparently can do no wrong. why does he get a pass? what does he do differently? well, apparently other trainers get a pass for the simple reason that they AREN'T dwl. lukas has put up numbers unheard of, has been on top of the game for years. trained not one, but two of the top earning distaffers in the history of the sport. countless champs, how many tc winners- including the record for tc wins in a row--six i believe. winners of how many bc races? how many graded stakes? how much purse money? trained how many other top trainers?
you know, i just read something interesting about woody stephens. he's treated as a demi god for his wins, including running conquistador cielo back in the belmont only five days after his met mile score....but do you know that pre-race, everyone begged for him not to run, including CC's owner! ah, but he was right, wasn't he? if dwl tried something like that, he'd be run out of town on a rail. people bitch about going wild...what were the odds on charismatic in the derby? how about giacomo? you know, sometimes longshots win! go figure. dwl ran a longshot horse in the derby. yeah, cause he obviously doesn't know jack about how to win that race, right? do you know that spain paid over $100 to win in her bc distaff....good thing he didn't listen to the naysayers regarding her and that race!
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#14
06-07-2006, 08:05 PM
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Quote:
Did You Realize she never won another race and then he broke her down, I think out of all the horses to win a BC race last year, she was the 1st one to run back. What other horses out of that Filly race came back and won? I don't think Wild Fit has won. Stevie Wonderboys time in the Juvenile was like 12 lenghts faster than folklore it was a weak JF BC.
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#15
06-07-2006, 08:05 PM
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Do you know for a fact that several vets said that Folklore could come back and be the same horse? I find that very hard to believe. If several vets thought she could come back and be the same horse, they would have probably brought her back.
I would not believe everything trainers say. When Lukas's horse broke down before the 2005 Derby, Lukas totally tried to downplay the injury. On an interview on TVG he said that "these things happen all the time during Derby week, a cracked sesamoid, a quarter crack, a bruised foot, etc." He was trying to play to the people that don't know anything. How could he compare a bruised foot or a quarter crack with a broken sesamoid. It was the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. He was basicaly saying that a broken sesamoid is no big deal and that horses pull out of the Derby a few days before the race with these nagging injuries all the time.
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#16
06-07-2006, 08:10 PM
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from what i read, they said she could resume training after a break. but that they didn't want to compromise her, so she was retired. they didn't want to chance her not being as good, and i'm sure her third in her one race this year probably had something to do with that. we all know top two year olds don't always continue on at three. look at the past several winners of the bc filly race--SFF only showed flashes of her early brilliance, than there was halfbridled and sweet catomine to name a few.
as for wild fit, she's a closer, they don't always get there in time. i remember right after, when she was bought for big bucks for her potential as a broodmare saying they paid WAY too much for her, based on her pedigree....she's a flash in the pan imo. that race is one indication of a good race result not necessarily meaning it's a good horse.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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#17
06-07-2006, 08:12 PM
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Danzig, I am wiling to admit Lukas gets more abuse than the rest, but do you really think it is just out of spite? Maybe so, but you still have not touched on the subject as to why he can't train older horses and why is he terrible now?
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#18
06-07-2006, 08:17 PM
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I don't remember the last older horse Lukas had. I guess owners are taking note and quite giving him all these millions of dollars worth of horses and then considering themselves lucky if the horse makes it to the end of his 3yo year without breaking down.
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#19
06-07-2006, 08:19 PM
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AS long as he keeps running in baby races I'm happy. People still bet his horses blind and hard even though he's winning at a 4% clip. Best value around Lukas in a baby race, all other horses have value.
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#20
06-07-2006, 08:44 PM
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Quote:
azeri was older when she ran for him. definitely a champ. some said they liked her better when facing colts, while others liked her only running and winning against west coast mares. why is he not as good now? hell, he's old. maybe he's tired. maybe the drive isn't there. who knows? happens to the best of them. how many did willie shoemaker win in his prime? how about when he was 'over the hill'? became the oldest jock to win the derby on ferdinand, so some of it was still there--much like dwl still winning a big one now and then. it happens. all i know is people have been slinging mud at dwl for years, most of my life! but he's done so much. and he's not the only to lose horses, to suffer breakdowns, to win some, to lose others. to have high priced horses who did nada, it happens to everyone in the biz. but he's under a microscope... but it's like bailey, people liked to bash on him...then he retired so eventually someone else will be wearing the bulls eye. much like lukas, when he's gone the venom will be directed elsewhere--baffert gets a lot of grief, maybe it'll be his turn.
__________________
Books serve to show a man that those original thoughts of his aren't very new at all. Abraham Lincoln
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