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#1
11-03-2011, 11:34 PM
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11/4 (Friday): Churchill Downs -- 28th Breeders' Cup
It's been a breakneck two weeks in Louisville, and it's time for the annual Breeders' Cup pep talk. Whether wildly successful or not, your ability as a horseplayer won't be forever defined over these next 48 hours. We have unique opportunities in the Cup with a chance to be rewarded for creative thinking and audacious risk-taking. Some will come away delighted and some maddeningly frustrated, but all should approach these races as the curious annual puzzles they've become. No matter how well you 'handicap' the races, fields this deep and mysterious will produce several nearly unforeseeable results. Remember that you could be 0 for 14 going into Saturday's finale and get it all back and more in the 2 minutes and 2 seconds it takes to run Saturday's Classic...
It's not uncommon to look at a card like Day 1 of the Cup and sense it is going to be highly formful as Andy Beyer suggested on ATR Thursday. And with possible winners like Secret Circle, Somali Lemonade and Turbulent Descent in the day's first early and My Miss Aurelia, Stacelita and the Distaff soph trio deserving chalk in the P6 second half, it's highly plausible. But as discussed since the draw, one well positioned upset will drive multi-race returns into the upper reaches while your interesting 30-1 shot running second or third will trip monster in-race exotics. Spend as freely as you can afford, get a little lucky, and here's hoping that everyone gets something that fills their account and makes them proud. It's again been a pleasure trying to bring the flavor of the Cup to everyone listening, and I hope there was something offered that you can convert into winning tickets. Thanks to Churchill and everyone who contributed so generously to ATR over the last two weeks.. Best of luck this weekend! CHURCHILL DOWNS -- 28th BREEDERS' CUP CONDITIONS: MAIN-GOOD 2PM, FAST 4PM; TURF-YIELDING POST-SCRATCHES 1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #1 Privilaged 5-1 8th Next Best: #8 Rothko 5-2 WON ($5.00) Exotics Use: #6 De Price 6-1 5th Super Add: #2 Goodtimehadbyall 8-1 3rd 2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #6 Chilled 6-1 WON-via DQ ($7.00) Next Best: #9 Katz My Song 7-2 3rd Exotics Use: #2 Gentle Tap 5-1 4th Super Add: #1 Post Ranch 5-1 5th 3rd: 19th Ack Ack H. (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Well-matched set with challenging pace questions to answer.. Best Value: #5 Glenwood Canyon 6-1 3rd Next Best: #3 Gladding 3-1 4th Exotics Use: #1 Nacho Friend 5-1 7th Super Add: #6 Demarcation 9-2 5th 4th: 2nd Jimmy V., 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super) There's a preponderance of speed here, so inclined to look to some of the pressers and closers.. Best Value: #5 Southern Dude 6-1 7th Next Best: #3 Matthewsburg 8-1 5th Exotics Use: #1 Will's Wildcat 12-1 WON ($13.20) Super Add: #6 Free Entry 15-1 6th 5th: 1st BC Juvenile Sprint, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Inaugural running of this race is being given over to sharp Jack Goodman winner Secret Circle in most quarters, but be advised that Seeker's Spa win -- sealed slop or not -- was as fast as what Baffert's Eddington colt has run.. Best Value: #1 Seeker 4-1 4th Next Best: #6 Secret Circle 6-5 WON ($2.80) Exotics Use: #5 Shumoos 15-1 2nd Super Add: #3 Blacky the Bull 20-1 8th <$75 P5 Play: 1: 1-6-8 2: 4/SCR-6-9 3: 1-3-5-6 4: 3-5 5: 1-6 3x3x4x2x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 6th: 4th BC Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Came to Kentucky fully respectful of favorites #14 Somali Lemonade (3-1) and #10 Elusive Kate (2-1) as the clear class of the event, but poor draw for Matz miss and dubious fitness status of Gosden invader give pause to pecking order. There are many signed on here that can win, and the ones that drew best at attractive prices -- like #5 Stephanie's Kitten (12-1) -- are the obvious place to start. Be aggressive and inclusive as there is no insane proposals approaching what can be one of the weekend's big exotic opportunities.. Best Value: #5 Stephanie's Kitten 12-1 WON ($14.20) Next Best: #14 Somali Lemonade 3-1 5th Exotics Use: #8 Hard Not to Like 15-1 6th Super Add: #11 Ann of the Dance 30-1 13th 7th: 4th BC Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Turbulent Descent has been widely identified as one of the likeliest winners of the weekend and she is perfect at the specialty distance of seven eighths. Mike Puype told me within 30 minutes of her Test win that his first inclination was to train the Congrats bay up to the Breeders' Cup. He has done little wrong with her since the decision to stick to one-turns with her and though we all want to beat horses like her, she is imposing in this spot. Imposing, but not unbeatable.. Most Likely: #3 Turbulent Descent 6-5 5th Best Value: #10 Tamarind Hall 20-1 10th Next Best: #6 Switch 3-1 2nd Exotics Use: #12 Pomeroys Pistol 6-1 4th 8th: 28th BC Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Would love to be clever here, and there are a couple of price horses that do have some merit, but fillies like Grace Hall and My Miss Aurelia enjoy figure and connection marks that provide an edge on the field. (Personally, I'm taking a stand against My Miss Aurelia within the race looking for a score, but plan on protecting with her in multis). Say a Novena's win at MTH two back puts her in range with a return to it, while Northern Passion and Putthebabies down make first dirt starts that could offer jump up efforts into exotics.. Most Likely: #5 Grace Hall 4-1 2nd Best Value: #10 Northern Passion 12-1 7th Exotics Use: #2 Candrea 6-1 11th Super Add: #7 Putthebabiesdown 30-1 8th 9th: 13th BC Filly & Mare Turf (G1), F&M-3+, 11f-T (DD, Super) Stacelita has been a standout among the domestic turf mares this season and while the eye infection and medication concerns hover, she has looked incredible preparing for this.. Most Likely: #2 Stacelita 2-1 9th Best Value: #3 Harmonious 30-1 10th Exotics Use: #8 Perfect Shirl 30-1 WON ($57.60) Super Add: #9 Shared Account 30-1 7th 10th: 28th BC Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (Super, Super Hi-5) The sophomore fillies have taken turns winning the big division races and now face off against some unspectacular but solid mares and one other older filly in Super Espresso. Royal Delta and It's Tricky feel like the 3yo's you want, though underlaid Plum Pretty is the sole contestant with a win -- or a start of any kind in fact -- over the strip. Pachattack has worked beautifully at Churchill prepping for the Friday feature, while Ultra Blend has never missed the board in her 5 dirt starts.. Most Likely: #6 Royal Delta 5-2 WON ($6.40) Best Value: #3 It's Tricky 5-1 2nd Exotics Use: #2 Pachattack 12-1 3rd Super Add: #7 Ultra Blend 8-1 4th $1 Exacta (6-3) Paid $16.00 $1 Trifecta (6-3-2) Paid $116.50 $1 Superfecta (6-3-2-7) Paid $588.60 <$100 Ultra P6 Play: 5: 1-6 6: 5-14 7: 3 8: 5-9 9: 2-3-8 10: 3-6 2x2x1x2x3x2 = 48 x $2 = $96 $2 Pick 6 (6/5/5/9/8/6,9) Paid $1,354.00 (5OF6) <$75 P4 Play: 7: 3-6-10-12 8: 2-5-7-9-10-13 9: 2-3-8 10: 3-6 4x6x3x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 11-04-2011 at 08:46 PM. 
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#2
11-04-2011, 12:18 AM
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Good luck tomorrow Steve. I like your approach to the F&M turf- looks like Stacelita or a bomb to me (and I'm leaning towards the same three 30-1 shots.)
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you
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#6
11-04-2011, 08:14 AM
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LOL...same here. Had to stop listening at work and listen to the replay at night. Taking notes and the big boss walked by....thought he was gonna ask me what I was doing for a second but he's still on a high from the Cardinals win so I skated by.
Outstanding week of shows Steve. Nick Luck and the Mig really stand out to me. "Home sick" today and really looking forward to the final prep show. Good luck to all and have fun.
__________________
“Once there was only dark. If you ask me, light’s winning.”–Rust Cohle – True Detective
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#7
11-04-2011, 09:10 AM
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Track maintenance info:
http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...ck-maintenance Early scratches: http://www.equibase.com/static/latec...gesCD-USA.html
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#8
11-04-2011, 09:20 AM
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Quote:
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#9
11-04-2011, 09:27 AM
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Let me give it a whirl:
Race 5 Juvenile sprint Most likely – Seeker/Secret Circle Value – Blacky the Bull Exotic add – Jake Mo Race 6 Juvenile Filly Turf Most Likely – Elusive Kate Value – Hard Not To Like Exotic add – Stephanie’s Kitten, Dayatthespa Race 7 F & M Sprint Most Likely – Turbulent Descent Value – Tamarind Hall Exotic add – Her Simile Race 8 Juvenile Fillies Most Likely – My Miss Aurelia, Northern Passion Value – Putthebabiesdown Exotic – Weemissfrankie Race 9 F & M Turf Most Likely – Stacelita Value – Perfect Shirl Exotic add - Shared Account Race 10 Distaff Most Likely – Royal Delta Value –Miss Match Exotic add – It’s Tricky Pick 6 play < $200 1,6/2,5,8,11/3,10/9,10/1,8/6 2*4*2*2*2*1 = 64 * $2 =$128 Pick 4 play < $75 3,10,11/7,9,10/2,5,6,8,9/1,3,6 3*3*5*3 = 135 * $.5 = $67.50 Back for tomorrow. Thanks and good luck.
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#10
11-04-2011, 12:12 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#12
11-04-2011, 03:46 PM
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Quote:
Spoke too soon. Here comes the drying out rail bias. Note how Lep came up the inside as well following Borel
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#16
11-04-2011, 08:23 PM
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 Steve, great info and insight for the last 2 weeks. Hope your Saturday mirrors your great plays today. recharge and attack the Satuday card.
__________________
Do it big, do it right and do it with style!
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