Pace projection method

[Calzone Lord]

The 6 furlong pace projection worked out pretty straight-forward for the Breeders Cup Classic.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...15&postcount=1


Where each horse was after 6fs is in bold. So You Think's is not factored in.

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

Game On Dude: (Joint leader) 1st by 1
Uncle Mo: (Joint leader) 2nd beaten 1
To Honor And Serve: (3rd by 1.5 lengths) 3rd beaten 1.5
Stay Thirsty: (4th by 2.75 lengths) 4th beaten 2.75
Havre De Grace: (5th by 3.5 lengths) 5th beaten 3.25
Flat Out: (6th by 4.5 lengths) 7th beaten 5.75
Rattlesnake Bridge: (7th by 7 lengths) 11th beaten 16.75
Ruler On Ice: (8th by 9.25 lengths) 9th beaten 10.25
Drosselmeyer: (9th by 10 lengths) 8th beaten 8.25
Headache: (10th by 11 lengths) 6th beaten 3.75
Ice Box: (11th by 14 lengths) 10th beaten 10.75
So You Think: ???? Not factored in

Only two jockeys in the race opted to roll the dice and take their horse out of its game ... Calvin Borel on Rattlesnake Bridge and Paco Lopez on Headache.

Headache -- a plodder -- was supposed to be 11 lengths off the pace. He was asked to run 7.25 lengths faster than projected early on -- that totally sapped his ability to stay and he tired to finish last.

Rattlesnake Bridge was supposed to be 7 lengths off the pace. Borel rolled the dice and had him 9.75 lengths further back than projected. This move did not yield a Mine That Bird like tactical form reversal ... he finished 9th.

Everyone else -- for the most part -- seemed to run efficently. Uncle Mo was rated to avoid being head-to-head with GoD. Flat Out might have wasted some energy because Solis had him moving outward through the 1st turn -- as he was dead-set on getting a wide clear run.

My father told me "the Classic was the only race in the two days where you were totally wrong about everything" -- I told him 'I actually had the race drawn up right -- the last four furlongs just degenerated into an absolute eyesore and a horse Flat Out beat fair and square at the same distance last time won a slow staggering grind-fest.'

These top dirt races at 10fs and up - from an analytical standpoint - have just become horrible events. Especially when the race is run over a dirt track yielding slower than par times. It's really not pretty stuff.

I handicap cheaper class dirt racing at 10fs and up over the course of the year. And the speed horses stretching out from 8.5f and 9f where they sometimes fade -- they dominate the sucker plodders who always close and gain ground. No idea why this trend is almost reversed with top class racing.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The 6 furlong pace projection worked out pretty straight-forward for the Breeders Cup Classic.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...15&postcount=1


Where each horse was after 6fs is in bold. So You Think's is not factored in.




Only two jockeys in the race opted to roll the dice and take their horse out of its game ... Calvin Borel on Rattlesnake Bridge and Paco Lopez on Headache.

Headache -- a plodder -- was supposed to be 11 lengths off the pace. He was asked to run 7.25 lengths faster than projected early on -- that totally sapped his ability to stay and he tired to finish last.

Rattlesnake Bridge was supposed to be 7 lengths off the pace. Borel rolled the dice and had him 9.75 lengths further back than projected. This move did not yield a Mine That Bird like tactical form reversal ... he finished 9th.

Everyone else -- for the most part -- seemed to run efficently. Uncle Mo was rated to avoid being head-to-head with GoD. Flat Out might have wasted some energy because Solis had him moving outward through the 1st turn -- as he was dead-set on getting a wide clear run.

My father told me "the Classic was the only race in the two days where you were totally wrong about everything" -- I told him 'I actually had the race drawn up right -- the last four furlongs just degenerated into an absolute eyesore and a horse Flat Out beat fair and square at the same distance last time won a slow staggering grind-fest.'

These top dirt races at 10fs and up - from an analytical standpoint - have just become horrible events. Especially when the race is run over a dirt track yielding slower than par times. It's really not pretty stuff.

I handicap cheaper class dirt racing at 10fs and up over the course of the year. And the speed horses stretching out from 8.5f and 9f where they sometimes fade -- they dominate the sucker plodders who always close and gain ground. No idea why this trend is almost reversed with top class racing.

nice call. i got this one wrong, though i did flip flop on THAS after looking at the pps.

however, what top class racing are you referring to?