11/25: Churchill Downs (7th-12th); Hollywood Park (3rd-10th)

[Kasept]

Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving! Outstanding action all over the place the next three days, but Churchill and Hollywood slates are particularly attractive..


CHURCHILL DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not playing the P6, but worth starting the Downs look here with several enticing prices involved..

Original top selection #7 Charming Endeavour (5-1) has SCR'd..

Best Value: #3 Humor's Punch 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Tiban 15-1 12th
Exotics Use: #8 R Fast Cat 8-1 WON ($21.40)
Super Add: #1 Heiden 3-1 4th


8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

I've been a sucker for Depeche Chat from Day One and the time to have him is likely first off the break. There's a lot of speed in this and he should be motoring late..

Best Value: #4 Depeche Chat 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Light Up the Score 2-1 WON ($4.80)
Exotics Use: #5 Temp 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Beamer 6-1 8th


9th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Tough group given there are 4-5 that feel similar. Those close to pace may haveedge with lack of lick signed on..

Most Likely: #4 Revelstoke 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Tap Tap Tapping 5-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Heavenly Landing 3-1 WON ($5.80)
Exotics Use: #2 She's Picky 5-1 6th


10th: OC/C, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Agastache 8-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Dubious Miss 5-2 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Uncle Brent 3-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Good Lord 8-1 3rd


11th: 137th Clark H. (G1), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

They've been running this race at the Downs as long as they've run the Derby, and it's status as an important late season test is enhanced by the Championship implications associated with Flat Out (Elder Male) and Ruler On Ice (3yo Male). Every runner in this Clark is exiting a stake including 5 from Breeders' Cup events, 3 each from the Ack Ack and Fayette and one each from the Oklahoma Derby and Jimmy V. If you think back to the Breeders' Cup Classic, one scenario that was floated going in was Game On Dude taking them a long way on a loose lead. That idea played out. It is not hard to envision a similar pace concept playing out the exact same way here with Jimmy Baker's Downs-loving Will's Wildcat. You can use Flat Out, Ruler On Ice and Wise Dan -- the logicals -- liberally, but if you want to pick a way to attack the race off a big number, keying around 30-1 Will's Wildcat is a viable approach. I'll play heavily off Will's Wildcat to run the Game On Dude race and top the tabs with Charlie Lopresti who you should recall lost this race via DQ a year ago when Wise Dan's half brother Successful Dan was taken down in favor of Giant Oak..

Most Likely: #11 Wise Dan 4-1 WON ($11.00)
Best Value: #10 Will's Wildcat 30-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Flat Out 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Ruler On Ice 4-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Pleasant Prince 20-1 12th


12th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (Super, Super Hi-5)

Some way to end a good sequence..

Most Likely: #3 Traci's Thunder 5-2 WON ($4.20)
Best Value: #11 Leather Laces 10-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Champ Laila 15-1 9th
Exotics Use: #6 Kentucky Peaches 12-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Hot Vision 12-1 6th


<$75 P5 Play:

8: 4-5-7
9: 4-8
10: 2-3-6
11: 1-6-10-11
12: 3-11

3x2x3x4x2 = 144 x .50 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

9: 4-8
10: 2-3-6
11: 1-6-7-10-11
12: 3-5-6-8-11

2x3x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75



HOLLYWOOD PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

That's a crazy ML price on 2nd timer Solid South whose debut is contentious with the best here..

Most Likely: #9 Late Night Sky 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Solid South 20-1 6th
Exotics Use: #10 Chickie Charms 7-2 5th
Super Add: #2 Qatar's Pearl 3-1 4th


4th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Doubledown On Ten 5-2 5th
Next Best: #7 Genius 2-1 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #6 Grambling Gold SCR'D
Exotics Use: #1 Fiarano 5-1 2nd


5th: 20th Miesque (G3), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Your Special Day 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Assateague SCR'D
Exotics Use: #7 More Than Love 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Super Add: #1 Island Paradise 3-1 3rd


6th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Full's Kris S. 5-2 7th
Best Value: #7 Aladino 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 My Slew 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Lethal Intent 5-1 8th


7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

I hate these..

Most Likely: #2 Jairzihno 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Utopian 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #6 Yodelen Dan 7-2 7th
Best Value: #3 Antidote 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Hiatus 6-1 7th


8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Amazed to see High Resolve -- last seen under Greg Gilchrist's watch 2 years ago -- back in the PP's..

Most Likely: #4 Include Me Out 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Teddy's Promise 2-1 WON ($4.20)
Exotics Use: #2 Tales in Excess 8-1 6th
Super Add: #7 High Resolve 5-1 7th


9th: 30th Matriarch (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Outstanding lineup for this headlined by hard-hitting Division Leader Never Retreat (10/5-2-1 this year) and 3 from Graham Motion including defending winner Gypsy's Warning..

Most Likely: #8 Never Retreat 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #5 Gypsy's Warning 6-1 --
Next Best: #1 Unbridled's Humor 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 All Star Heart SCR'D

SCR ADD: #7 Star Billing 12-1 WON ($23.40)


10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #13 Virginia Way 5-2 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #4 Creston Cutie 7-2
Exotics Use: #14 Zohrah 7-2 --
Best Value: #3 Warren's Boogie 10-1 --
Hi-5 Play: #7 Satin Bouquet SCR'D


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-6-7-8
8: 4-6
9: 1-5-8
10: 3-4-13-14

5x2x3x4 = 120 x .50 = $60


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

CD SCR/CHG'S

[Kasept]

Understand that Borel can't ride all the way down to 112, but he's at 117 today which effectively gives away the handicap advantage Will's Willdcat rec'd coming in..

[Rootdog1]

To much turkey and pumpkin pie yesterday??

[Kasept]

HOL SCR/CHG'S

Leave it to Assmussen for a chalky start to the pick 5. Love that magic.

[Kasept]

Very clever ride by Brian Hernandez on Revelstoke.. Good grief.