1/19: Aqueduct ($26k C/O); Santa Anita ($107k C/O)

[Kasept]

Was having solid Holiday Weekend up until getting stymied in the anchor leg of the GP P4 Sunday and was subsequently beaten up badly chasing the Santa Anita P6. Two exceedingly tricky P6 sequences Thursday in NY and CA to get the raceweek going...


AQUEDUCT


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

As discussed Tuesday with Andy Serling on ATR, Sportswriter (4-1) is new in Rudy Rod barn off Flying Zee dispersal purchase by savvy owner Dubb. Former trainer of that gelding Carlos Martin has the horse to beat in Bizarroworld (2-1). Think I'm Hooked (6-1) turns back after disasterous stretchout try in Runyon. Bulleted for this spot but you have to live with Valdivia in irons. Half Nelson, Little Dale and Cat Paws all with chance. Brutal way to start carryover!

Most Likely: #7 Bizarroworld 2-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Think I'm Hooked 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sportswriter 4-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #9 Little Dale 8-1 8th


5th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD)

Top 3 faves look to be a cut above and well-matched. Cat Sweep broke his maiden this strip and could factor with a forward move..

Most Likely: #2 Same Old Wish 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #3 Lindell A. C. 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Cat Sweep 6-1 5th


6th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

I'm not convinced that short-priced Supsa, Full of Intent or Caps Lady are that much better than an alternative like King of the Disco who was aggressively placed and now dives down looking for a win..

Best Value: #7 King of the Disco 15-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Full of Intent 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Caps Lady 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Supsa 2-1 WON ($8.00)


7th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Those that can't see what purse hike has done for NY entry box should note trainers visiting AQU for this $69k purse: Jeff Runco, Butch Reid, Bennie Perkins Jr., et al. Really fun betting race and an event where it feels like there will be enough pace for stalker-closers to have their chance..

Best Value: #4 Emily Allstar 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Great Gracie Dane 5-1 WON ($7.90)
Exotics Use: #2 Coco Ecolo 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Indian Burn 8-1 2nd


8th: Biogio's Rose-R, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Confusing little group in Empire stake named for the Polish Numbers mare that won 16 times and $800k for the Nastasis under the direction of Bobby Ribaudo (and Kay Jensen early on)..

Best Value: #1 Hard Mystery 8-1 WON ($13.40)
Next Best: #4 Bourbon Street Girl 9-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Lion Alexandra 4-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Mill Branch Millie 12-1 6th


9th: NY-ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-70y (Super)

If Easy Ending doesn't run her race stretching out, and Rudy Rod doesn't have strong numbers first route (1 win in 16 starts), this thing could get blown open..

Most Likely: #7 Easy Ending 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Little Larky 10-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Wise Choice 15-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Ginger Snapit 4-1 4th


<$75 P6 Play:

4: 1-6-7
5: 2-3-4
6: 7
7: 4-8
8: 1
9: 4-7

3x3x1x2x1x2 = 36 x $2 = $72


<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-7
7: 1-2-4-8
8: 1-2-4-6
9: 1-4-7

3x4x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72



GULFSTREAM


PRE-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Stealcase 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #8 Round Midnight 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Big John B 6-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Windsurfer 4-1 2nd


8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-T/48' (P3, DD, Super)

Terrific betting race with a solid but not not invincible fave and 4 well-priced hook-ups..

Most Likely: #2 Corporate Jungle 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Exclusive Strike 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Eternal Ruler 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #7 Trend 12-1 WON ($26.60)
Super Add: #9 Quantity 6-1 6th



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


3rd: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Maryjean 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #2 I Sense Your Luck 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Purple Starduster 5-2 2nd


4th: S/ALW, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Tough to get too creative v. the 3-5 fave, but Clearance Clarence is OK and impressed clockers with last drill..

Most Likely: #4 Ultimate Decision 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Next Best: #3 Clearance Clarence 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 El Tango Ray 7-2 2nd


5th: Cal-MSW, F&M-4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Clean Break 2-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Vonn Nez 7-2 5th
Exotics Use: #4 The Grans 5-2 3rd


6th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

P6 play calls for some out-on-limb ideas. Singling Line One..

Most Likely: #10 LINE ONE 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Russian River 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Subpeona the Dress 3-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Classy Attraction 20-1 3rd


7th: Cal-OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Arrivederci Caro 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Meltarib 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Exotics Use: #3 Suances Flower 9-2
Super Add: #1 Really Elegant 15-1


8th: MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Pretty darn good bunch for $40k maidens..

Best Value: #10 Apply 12-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Bull Ring 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Baron Von Red 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Sky Fox 8-1 5th
Hi-5 Play: #8 Relentless Heat 4-1 2nd


<$150 P6 Play:

3: 2-4-6
4: 3-4
5: 1-3
6: 10
7: 3-5-7
8: 5-10

3x2x2x1x3x2 = 72 x $2 = 4144


<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-4
6: 1-10
7: 1-3-5-7
8: 2-4-5-8-9-10

3x2x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

AQU SCR/CHG

[Kasept]

ATR listeners should send Rich Eng flowers, liquor, money after Trend scores in GP 8th at 12-1!

[Kasept]

Uggh.. Brutal.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Kasept

ATR listeners should send Rich Eng flowers, liquor, money after Trend scores in GP 8th at 12-1!

I'll pass....but thanks for the suggestion.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'll pass....but thanks for the suggestion.

[guido75]

Nice work today Steve, just tuned in at SA, 6th race, your single came in second and in the 7th your top two came one two. Thank you for ending my work day with a few tickets I can cash. You are the man!!!!

[Kasept]

Thx Guid! Glad you caught some. Lost a little by leaving some dots unconnected, but a fun day overall. Hope everybody did OK.

Thanks to Andy for his AQU opinions on Tuesday ATR as well as Brad Free and Rich Eng re: SA. Listeners certainly benefitted.

[Chipster]

I know U are very busy.

Could U check private email when U get the chance?

[travelling_vic]

opener a confusing one neither 2 5 7 have any consistent form here

[travelling_vic]

hard to beat 5 in the 2nd....the rail horse could give em a tussle for awhile later. Don't know anything about Jerkins firster either

bad betting race as 7 could run awhile but has shown no great late moves

[travelling_vic]

Man made class structure is a joke. I have confronted many on the backside and they all agree: it is the horses you race today that suggest a level of competition, not some arbitrary class structure in a condition book.

[travelling_vic]

3rd 4 and 5 look outstanding all except the price...3 to go out but for how long?

[travelling_vic]

4th maidens favor those quick to the 2nd call and that would be 4 and 5

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by travelling_vic

4th maidens favor those quick to the 2nd call and that would be 4 and 5

I have the 3 singled to hit the pick 3

[travelling_vic]

Originally Posted by knickslions2

I have the 3 singled to hit the pick 3

WRONG energy distribution for sprints on the inner. Sustained sprinters only win at stakes levels or
when the pace falls apart.

7/1 is a welcome return

[jms62]

Originally Posted by travelling_vic

WRONG energy distribution for sprints on the inner. Sustained sprinters only win at stakes levels or
when the pace falls apart.

7/1 is a welcome return

Vic what kind of Dr are you?

[travelling_vic]

Originally Posted by jms62

Vic what kind of Dr are you?

a retired one who worked with limb salvage in diabetics,
gait analysis, orthopedics mostly

Stab 4th turf GP amongst 2 3 5 10

[GBBob]

Originally Posted by jms62

Vic what kind of Dr are you?

not a Dr of Grammar...there's only one "L" in traveling

just sayin'

[travelling_vic]

you seemed to know what it meant. I type quickly to get a message across.

Named in honor of a horse which spelled it that way nonetheless