Baffert jockeys' strategy in the Arkansas Derby.

[Mike]

Secret Circle does not need the win, or the earnings. His jockey could hold him back a bit in the lane, allowing Bodemeister to secure the win or place(that place money at least puts him on the bubble, that's more than the S.A. Derby's purse would).

Baffert instructs the jocks, despite the horses' separate owners, to plan accordingly, does he not?

[Dahoss]

The GOAT would never do that.

[NTamm1215]

You're giving him too much credit. This is a guy who actually let Chantal Sutherland ride a horse in a $10 million race.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

You're giving him too much credit. This is a guy who actually let Chantal Sutherland ride a horse in a $10 million race.

Do you really think it mattered? I guess he did though, so it is pretty silly.

[Thunder Gulch]

A. it won't happen at this level.
B. If the jockey were this obvious in not riding their horses to win, the stewards would bury all of them.

[Merlinsky]

I think Bob's trying to give Secret Circle a chance to talk him out of running him in the Derby. If he gets the job done again, albeit not in a pretty fashion, how could Baffert not press on with him? If SC runs into distance limitations and Bodemeister still can't get by him, that says something about Bodemeister, doesn't it? Maybe neither horse should be in the Derby. Maybe both. You give SC a chance and find out something about Bodemeister at the same time. Might as well. Taking the path of least resistance can bite you in the butt later, and better to test them now than in a field of 20.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by Mike

Secret Circle does not need the win, or the earnings. His jockey could hold him back a bit in the lane, allowing Bodemeister to secure the win or place(that place money at least puts him on the bubble, that's more than the S.A. Derby's purse would).

Baffert instructs the jocks, despite the horses' separate owners, to plan accordingly, does he not?

Yes, I find it highly plausible that Baffert will tell Secret Circle owner Mike Pegram that we're going to enter a $1,000,000 Grade 1 race, but try to let another horse win, if necessary.

[asudevil]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

Yes, I find it highly plausible that Baffert will tell Secret Circle owner Mike Pegram that we're going to enter a $1,000,000 Grade 1 race, but try to let another horse win, if necessary.

My instant reaction as well. This guy goes back with Baffert to the quarter horse days in AZ. What a joke....

[-BT-]

the factor


-bt-

[Seattleallstar]

I cant believe he would run two of his best shots in the same race in Arkansas, there are alot more races he can put Bodemeister in.

[Calzone Lord]

Taking back at least one of them isn't the worst idea.

Both horses have been used away from the gates only to be rated 60 yards later. Bejarano has been doing this with all of Baffert's runners.

Secret Circle and Bodemesiter obviously both pass the speed test...but horses who thrive in the triple crown series often are one-time front-end speed horses who can be rated back if they need to be.

There are obviously more than a few recent examples of horses who won the KY Derby without having proven the ability to rate and finish in preps.

'10 Derby winner Super Saver blew a stretch lead in the Tampa Derby and was outfinished by pace rival Line of David in the stretch of the Ark Derby. He didn't get his change of tactics till the Derby itself.

'09 Derby winner Mine That Bird was on the lead with a 1/4 mile to go in both the Borderlands and Sunland Derby. In the Sunland Derby -- Mine That Bird faded badly through the stretch after an early move into a hot pace to finish a staggering 4th. He didn't get his big tactic change to the Derby itself.

'08 Derby winner Big Brown won the Fla Derby in a front-end tour de force overcoming a wide post. He was front end speed going into the Ky Derby and didn't get his tactic change till the race itself.

'06 Derby winner Barbaro was always a front-end horse. He merely held sway through the stretch in his Derby preps against weak competition. He got a great trip in the Derby close to the pace and poured it on late.

'04 Derby winner Smarty Jones never really proved he could rate back. Neither did '03 Derby winner Funny Cide (who blew a stretch lead in the La Derby at FG and finished 4th) -- '02 Derby winner War Emblem was another one who couldn't rate. He had the kind of style of last years Derby 4th and Preakness winner Shackleford.

I think both raw and positional speed is always an underrated commodity -- even for a Derby horse -- but any horse who proves they have both and can take back and finish is obviously much more imposing. Because these horses are so lightly raced now ... a lot of them don't even get to show how they handle it going into the Derby. It makes handicapping the chances of such a horse a guessing game.

If we see Bodemeister rated back or Secret Circle rated back -- it will take some of the guessing game element out of handicapping their chances in the Derby.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

I cant believe he would run two of his best shots in the same race in Arkansas, there are alot more races he can put Bodemeister in.

Doesn't think he can beat Creative Cause out west and Bode needs the money....plus Baffert has dominated Oaklawn

I don't think he has the heart to do it.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

I cant believe he would run two of his best shots in the same race in Arkansas, there are alot more races he can put Bodemeister in.

trainers, including baffert, do this fairly often. and no, there aren't a lot of races to get graded earnings for a 3 yo. he's already got his santa anita derby contingent...
of course he might just bring both to have them both on hand and send one elsewhere-perhaps to illinois? but i wouldn't be surprised at all to see them both in the gate in Ar.

[HaloWishingwell]

They're running away from I'll Have Another

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

and no, there aren't a lot of races to get graded earnings for a 3 yo.

Talk about arguing for argument's sake.

Wood Memorial. Santa Anita Derby. Blue Grass. Lexington. Illinois Derby.

How many more options do you need for one horse?

he's already got his santa anita derby contingent...

His SA Derby contingent consists of the exposed Liaison, starter allowance horse (and likely turf horse) Blueskiesandrainbows, and 5.5f maiden winner Paynter.

[NTamm1215]

Cross out Baffert's name and write anyone else's in on Paynter's PPs and we'd be destroying that trainer for entering him in the SA Derby.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Talk about arguing for argument's sake.

Wood Memorial. Santa Anita Derby. Blue Grass. Lexington. Illinois Derby.

How many more options do you need for one horse?


His SA Derby contingent consists of the exposed Liaison, starter allowance horse (and likely turf horse) Blueskiesandrainbows, and 5.5f maiden winner Paynter.

i'm referring to bob baffert in particular in that case, with his larger contingent of horses...and noted he already had horses in the santa anita derby. perhaps i worded it incorrectly-my point is that since bob and some others such as pletcher have so many horses, it's hard to keep them apart. didn't tap have three in the la race the other day?
obviously there are races-i know what's out there. but when you have a lot of candidates, you run out of options don't you? and if he's willing to put more than one in at santa anita, why wouldn't he in arkansas?

[Seattleallstar]

why not just keep Bode for the SA Derby, or if he wanted a cupcake spot he could of went to Hawthorne

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Danzig

i'm referring to bob baffert in particular in that case, with his larger contingent of horses...

He doesn't have a horse in the Wood, Lexington, or Illinois Derby. He also passed on the Louisiana and Florida Derbies.

and noted he already had horses in the santa anita derby.

I noted that his horses in the SA Derby were second-stringers. Seattleallstar had a valid reason to question why Baffert would put his two top candidates in the same race.

...it's hard to keep them apart. didn't tap have three in the la race the other day?

No, he didn't.

obviously there are races-i know what's out there. but when you have a lot of candidates, you run out of options don't you? and if he's willing to put more than one in at santa anita, why wouldn't he in arkansas?

But you said there weren't a lot of options, yet there are. And Baffert isn't running out of options, he's simply not utilizing the other spots for some reason, which is kind of odd, considering he's started and had previous success in the Wood, Louisiana Derby, and Lexington.