Derby Odds

[justindew]

If Bodemeister, I'll Have Another, Creative Cause, Union Rags, Take Charge Indy, Gemologist, Alpha, Hansen, and Dullahan all make the field, might one or two of the above go off at greater than 20-1?

I don't think we'll see more than two go off at less than 10-1.

[Calzone Lord]

Of that group, Alpha is clearly most likely to go off at over 20/1.

Take Charge Indy will get Borel money and ran a lot better of the two over the track in the BC Juv.

[tywizard]

What you make of it if Ramon picked Alpha over Hansen? And how would it affect the respective odds.

[justindew]

Will the Apollo/1882 stat be enough to keep Bodemeister out of the role of favorite?

How much will the Borel factor hurt Take Charge Indy's odds? No way he'd be under 10-1 without Borel. But with him......

Are people actually going to bet Dullahan with confidence based on his style and his two wins on Polytrack?

How far down the tote board can an undefeated son of Tiznow trained by Todd Pletcher actually fall? Could he be favored?

Who will be favored between I'll Have Another and Creative Cause?

How many people will be able to pass up 10-1 or higher on Union Rags (which he may be)?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by tywizard

What you make of it if Ramon picked Alpha over Hansen? And how would it affect the respective odds.

It's always a very goofy bet race. Workout reports, media storylines, and jockeys get way more factored into the betting for this race than any other. Big longshots get severly overbet. Mine That Bird would have easily been more than 300/1 off odds if the race was run on a Thursday at Random Downs.

In the order Dew put them in...

Bodemeister will probably be the ML favorite -- and open cold before gradually coming down to near favortisim off odds.

I'll Have Another has a lopsided Grade 2 win and a game SA Derby win in his only two starts this year. He will take plenty of California money.

Creative Cause -- He was 3rd in the BC Juvie, ran down Bodemeister when he got denied a lead in a race that earned triple digit Beyer and Big sheet fig. Obviously going to get bet. Less of a regional angle to him.

Union Rags is trained by Barbaro's trainer -- two GP preps like Barbaro -- believe it or not something as stupid as that typically leads to some betting. People are suckers for human BS. Pants on Fire got way overbet (8/1 off odds) last year simply because the jockey has a vag. Union Rags could be a surprise post time favorite if he is the weeks clocker buzz horse.

Take Charge Indy - Borel. Freaking Twice The Appeal -- who can barely outrun a goat -- was 11/1 in the Derby last year.

Gemologist - Pletcher's best hope - Undefeated Wood Memorial winner. It will attract money.

Alpha - Even if Dominguez goes here -- I don't think it will make a great big deal. Might boost Hansen's odds a little bit more than it will lower his. Poor race in the BC Juvenile over track. A little hang to him. Likely to fall through the cracks.

Hansen - 2yo champion, Kentucky connections, pretty horsey. He's probably not going to fall through the cracks in the betting.

Dullahan - half sibling to Mine That Bird -- a local trainer who has pulled off miracles over this track on big event days -- a horse who the bettors will view as the fields best deep closer. Jockey has won 3 Derby's before. I think this is another who could surprisingly be bet down to post favorite if the workout reports are real good.

The Sunland Derby winner will probably be 12th or 13th choice in the betting despite coming in off of the 2nd best last out fig in the field.

[Thunder Gulch]

I think Hansen and Alpha go upwards of 15-1 or more, especially Alpha.
Hansen was 26-1 in Pool 1after losing his season debut, and that was when there was nobody else to feel good about except the field. The field went at 7-2, but Bodemeister now fills that spot - maybe not 7-2, but certainly taking a lot of money.

Alpha is off the radar and was beaten by Gemologist. Now there are a half dozen more with more apparent momentum.

Borel is probably the only jock that could move the needle in this one race, so the Dominguez decision makes no impact on the big pool.

[Thunder Gulch]

Just my opinions...

Originally Posted by justindew

Will the Apollo/1882 stat be enough to keep Bodemeister out of the role of favorite? Doesn't bother me, but sheet looks something like Curlin

How much will the Borel factor hurt Take Charge Indy's odds? No way he'd be under 10-1 without Borel. But with him......as was pointed out, look at Borel's last 3 compared to what most of us thought

Are people actually going to bet Dullahan with confidence based on his style and his two wins on Polytrack?Likely the first one I dump. Awesome yesterday, but you have to cut someone and the KEE specialist will be overbet off that

How far down the tote board can an undefeated son of Tiznow trained by Todd Pletcher actually fall? Could he be favored?I think the favorite

Who will be favored between I'll Have Another and Creative Cause?Creative Cause, because of the BC 3rd, but it's close and I like both

How many people will be able to pass up 10-1 or higher on Union Rags (which he may be)?I don't think he's that high. Maybe I'm wrong.

[Mike]

Bodemeister is named after Baffert's son; Bob just had a heart attack in Dubai and returns home for Derby glory. No question this is the heart warming story the media will embrace whole heartedly.

[Mike]

Originally Posted by Mike

Bodemeister is named after Baffert's son; Bob just had a heart attack in Dubai and returns home for Derby glory. No question this is the heart warming story the media will embrace whole heartedly.

Didn't even intend the heart puns.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by Mike

Bodemeister is named after Baffert's son; Bob just had a heart attack in Dubai and returns home for Derby glory. No question this is the heart warming story the media will embrace whole heartedly.

Plus they just love Baffert anyway.

[richard]

I'll go with running style and pedigree. Also throw in a quick pick or 2.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Mike

Bodemeister is named after Baffert's son; Bob just had a heart attack in Dubai and returns home for Derby glory. No question this is the heart warming story the media will embrace whole heartedly.

wonder what horses are named after bob's other kids. they never seem to get mention...

[Seattleallstar]

im going with the Billionaire Arabs in Blue with Alpha. Just to think after all the billions spent in trying to win the Kentucky Derby, one of their best shots is a homebred, in which they bred the sire who notched them their first TC race who was also a homebred. I dont think we count Sheik Hamdan's TC wins since they are totally seperate from Sheik Mo and the Godolphin/Darley Operation.

[tywizard]

Is there a site that has a collection of the pps for the past 20 or so Derbys?

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Is there a site that has a collection of the pps for the past 20 or so Derbys?

http://test.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/134.html
There's a handful on the bottom right corner of the page.

type the year-kentucky-derby-pps.pdf into a google search

[analyizethis]

Since 2003 172 horses have started in the Derby. 8 of those have been bet down to 5 - 1 or less. In 2003, 2006 and 2011 5 runners have been less than 10 - 1. (In the other years either 3 or 4 have been). In 2003 Empire Maker was 2.5 - 1 and the other four were between 5 and 10 - 1. In the other two years all 5 were between 5 and 10-1.

Given that history I'm going to say that we will have 5 between 5 and 10 - 1 again this year. I would say that those five will be Bodemeister, Gemologist, Creative Cause, I'll Have Another and Union Rags. At that point (at a 16% takeout) between 45% and 50% of the pool has been used up. The next group will be Take Charge Indy, Hansen, Dullahan, Alpha and another runner who trains well. They will be between 10 - 1 and 20 -1 and consume a portion of the pool to get you do about 75%. The rest will, of course on average have 2.5% of the pool bet on them for an average price of about
33 - 1. One of the changes that has happened in Kentucky Derby betting over the years is the compactness of the odds in this final strata and they will probably range from 20 - 1 to 40 - 1.

By the way, when runners have been bet down to 5 - 1 or less they have performed very well finishing in thge money 75% of the time and with an overall win ROI of 1.80 on a dollar.

[my miss storm cat]

Originally Posted by Mike

Bodemeister is named after Baffert's son; Bob just had a heart attack in Dubai and returns home for Derby glory. No question this is the heart warming story the media will embrace whole heartedly.

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Plus they just love Baffert anyway.

With respect and affection sorry but I think you're both completely off base.

I don't give a crap which writers like him or kiss up or whatever... they are NOT the ones who decide the best human interest slant.

Not sure about possible stories out there but they'll appear, one by one, and we'll see which flies. Example... Mark Valeski, the person, is a pool guy at a hotel in Bal Harbour. Apparently he's been there for over forty years so he's no kid... maybe there's some touching story about his current situation that the media can / will exploit. There will be something to tie it neatly with a bow and attempt a feeding frenzy.

Not to prove Cardus right or anything by having the only death post in the thread but recent death, someone in the family with some kind of handicap, a horse who overcame great odds to recover from injury as a two year old, etc. That's the stuff they feed to the public... not Baffert.

The non-racing population will not give a damn about some wealthy, anonymous (he is to them) trainer who just returned from a multi-million dollar race, heart attack or no heart attack. They want to see themselves... hard working blue collar guy who bought the right horse or even a modern-day, quasi-Cinderella storylike like Repole (that could be them) (he's got the large family angle too which is always good), the Funny Cide owners, etc.

That's how I see it anyway.

[Revidere]

Originally Posted by my miss storm cat

With respect and affection sorry but I think you're both completely off base.

I don't give a crap which writers like him or kiss up or whatever... they are NOT the ones who decide the best human interest slant.

Not sure about possible stories out there but they'll appear, one by one, and we'll see which flies. Example... Mark Valeski, the person, is a pool guy at a hotel in Bal Harbour. Apparently he's been there for over forty years so he's no kid... maybe there's some touching story about his current situation that the media can / will exploit. There will be something to tie it neatly with a bow and attempt a feeding frenzy.

Not to prove Cardus right or anything by having the only death post in the thread but recent death, someone in the family with some kind of handicap, a horse who overcame great odds to recover from injury as a two year old, etc. That's the stuff they feed to the public... not Baffert.

The non-racing population will not give a damn about some wealthy, anonymous (he is to them) trainer who just returned from a multi-million dollar race, heart attack or no heart attack. They want to see themselves... hard working blue collar guy who bought the right horse or even a modern-day, quasi-Cinderella storylike like Repole (that could be them) (he's got the large family angle too which is always good), the Funny Cide owners, etc.

That's how I see it anyway.

Or you could have the underdog Sheik who finds a dollar in the sand multiplies that into billions, buys a nation, builds a racetrack and from his hardscrabble life creates a racing empire on each hemisphere. He then spends his life trying to win the Derby and ........

Thats why Alpha will win. Racing needs more feel good stories like that.

[freddymo]

Does anyone know when Jillacious is going to run.. The filly is named for Baffert's wife and they expect her to be incredibly fast like her namesake.. PG? Anyone?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Revidere

Or you could have the underdog Sheik who finds a dollar in the sand multiplies that into billions, buys a nation, builds a racetrack and from his hardscrabble life creates a racing empire on each hemisphere. He then spends his life trying to win the Derby and ........

Thats why Alpha will win. Racing needs more feel good stories like that.