Oaks Day -- the other Stakes

Sightseek · #1 05-01-2012, 10:48 PM

Some unexpected entries in the American Turf Stakes...

RockHardTen1985 · #2 05-01-2012, 11:08 PM

Tons of speed 2.

Conrad · #3 05-02-2012, 12:48 AM

Anna Sophia has a very nice pedigree and I'm counting on her to hit the board at odds, or hopefully win it.
She's got a nice stretch kick but only one lifetime win.
Need a price; pretty much all of that 15-1 ML

Gate Dancer · #4 05-02-2012, 08:45 AM

I'm pretty sure my best bet will be Stephanie's Kitten in the Edgewood. (no real brilliant stuff there) but it will allow me to build around her with some nice pick 3's or 4's. Looks like a total single to me. I'll try for the prices before and after her.

RockHardTen1985 · #5 05-03-2012, 06:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gate Dancer

I'm pretty sure my best bet will be Stephanie's Kitten in the Edgewood. (no real brilliant stuff there) but it will allow me to build around her with some nice pick 3's or 4's. Looks like a total single to me. I'll try for the prices before and after her.

On big days like this I like that strategy, 1 chalk won't ruin a pick 3. I think Plum Pretty can't lose. Yes nothing clever, but 1 price and it will still pay.

herkhorse · #6 05-03-2012, 09:36 AM

I'm having a hard time with the Alysheba, I keep landing on the Pletcher

3kings · #7 05-03-2012, 10:12 AM

Not a stakes race but I love the #2 in R1.

Thunder Gulch · #8 05-03-2012, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by herkhorse

I'm having a hard time with the Alysheba, I keep landing on the Pletcher

Not me. I think Successful Dan's affinity for CD is the deciding edge. Why is Nate's Mineshaft 5-1 after that last? Been a monster for Smith.

VOL JACK · #9 05-03-2012, 11:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Not me. I think Successful Dan's affinity for CD is the deciding edge. Why is Nate's Mineshaft 5-1 after that last? Been a monster for Smith.

I really dont think MB looks at Beyers when making a morning line.
Beyers are probably the single biggest factor in determining how a race will be bet.

tywizard · #10 05-03-2012, 12:04 PM

Will anyone be using Nate's Mineshaft?

I'm taking a stand against....

Thunder Gulch · #11 05-03-2012, 12:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tywizard

Will anyone be using Nate's Mineshaft?

I'm taking a stand against....

Why stand against 5-1 as the 4th choice with only 5 real contenders?

tywizard · #12 05-03-2012, 12:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Why stand against 5-1 as the 4th choice with only 5 real contenders?

Because the race isn't at FG.

Port Conway Lane · #13 05-03-2012, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tywizard

Will anyone be using Nate's Mineshaft?

I'm taking a stand against....

He's the only horse I am using. I can go 6 deep and end up with MMM. I understand the beyer# will affect NM's odds in a negative way but there are plenty of good horses in here and enough question marks to keep the odds fair. Fort Larned is listed at 10-1 and anyone thinking they'll get that is dreaming.
I see 6 horses under 10-1 and 4 horses over 20-1. Single and spread elsewhere for me.

tywizard · #14 05-03-2012, 01:01 PM

I guess my thought is that you have two classy horses with proven success at the track that are in very good form (MMM/SD).....I will cover with Fort Larned before NM.

Port Conway Lane · #15 05-03-2012, 02:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tywizard

I guess my thought is that you have two classy horses with proven success at the track that are in very good form (MMM/SD).....I will cover with Fort Larned before NM.

If the M/L is anywhere close to the final odds FL would be the value. They both are all or nothing types. I prefer horses who have proven surface form but NM is working so well I'll take my chances.
I can't understand why Borel isn't on FL instead of a jockey the trainer has used only twice in two years. Maybe it means nothing but I prefer someone who has ridden the horse at least once before.