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#1
05-03-2012, 07:48 PM
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5/4: Churchill Downs (Kentucky Oaks Day)
CHURCHILL DOWNS -- 138 KENTUCKY OAKS
POST-SCRATCHES 1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, Super) You start handicapping a big weekend card and it's a modest-looking group of MDN fillies until you come to Margolis sending $475k Ghostzapper daughter out of the great Azeri to her 2nd start (#6 Wine Princess).. Most Likely: #1 Holiday's Jewel 5-2 2nd Next Best: #2 Finallyarealady 3-1 5th Exotics Use: #6 Wine Princess 3-1 WON ($5.40) Super Add: #3 Ticket to Broadway 8-1 3rd 2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) I'll give Monarchic one more chance getting Castellano after enduring super premium headaches in last under Leparoux.. Most Likely: #4 Monarchic 7-2 WON ($9.00) Best Value: #7 Madris 8-1 7th Next Best: #10 Lord Tarzan 5-2 3rd Exotics Use: #8 Flexiplus 12-1 10th 3rd: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super) Jones filly doesn't look like she'll be caught.. Best Value: #4 YOUNG AND LOVELY 6-1 2nd Next Best: #7 Delightful Magic 5-1 6th Exotics Use: #5 Queen Teuta 6-1 3rd Super Add: #3 Malibu Holiday 4-1 5th 4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super) Very tricky group that may require wide spread in both P4's.. Best Value: #7 Illegally Blonde 8-1 8th Next Best: #6 Funny Proposition 6-1 WON ($5.80) Exotics Use: #3 Ire 8-1 6th Super Add: #4 Uptown Bertie 4-1 2nd 5th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super) Best Value: #10 Dancinginherdreams 10-1 WON ($7.20) Next Best: #1 Bouquet Booth 3-1 7th Exotics Use: #4 Sassy's Dream 4-1 5th Super Add: #6 Vera Belle 8-1 6th <$75 P4 Play: 2: 4-7-10 3: 4-7 4: 1-3-4-6-7 5: 1-3-4-6-10 3x2x5x5 = 150 x .50 = $75 6th: La Troienne (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super) Suppose singling Plum Pretty the way to go in the P4/P6, but a couple small backups or P3's with Juanita and Afleeting Lady may be worthwhile just in case the fave misfires.. Most Likely: #4 Plum Pretty 4-5 3rd Best Value: #5 Juanita 8-1 WON ($35.40) Next Best: #1 Afleeting Lady 8-1 5th Exotics Use: #2 St. John's River 5-1 2nd 7th: Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7f (P5, P3, DD, Super) Under the radar event features three speedy gals in Contested, Small Kitchen and Good Deed. Small Kitchen turns back which could be the perfect formula and if things collapse, Xunlei can pick them up late.. Most Likely: #7 Contested 2-1 WON ($4.20) Next Best: #2 Small Kitchen 7-2 7th Exotics Use: #3 Good Deed 3-1 2nd Best Value: #4 Xunlei 6-1 5th <$75 P4 Play: 4: 1-3-4-6-7 5: 1-3-4-6-10 6: 4 7: 2-3-7 5x5x1x3 = $75 ($37.50 for .50) 8th: Edgewood, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super) Hard to get too adventurous against Stephanie's Kitten, but you can certainly play around with numbers underneath.. Most Likely: #3 Stephanie's Kitten 2-1 WON ($4.00) Best Value: #8 Late SCR Next Best: #10 Treasured Up 10-1 4th Exotics Use: #2 Run a Risk 6-1 9th 9th: Alysheba, 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super) Absolutely terrific assembly of handicap talent. Nates Mineshaft will not sneak off on this group.. Most Likely: #4 Mucho Macho Man 2-1 3rd Best Value: #3 Fort Larned 10-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Successful Dan 3-1 WON ($10.20) Exotics Use: #1 Nates Mineshaft 5-1 6th 10th: American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super) All the Derby talk about how good the 3yo crop may be and here's 14 turfers to consider in that discussion. The field's two graded stakes winners are rendered vulnerable marooned far outside setting up an incredible wagering opportunity.. Best Value: #10 Travel Advisory 15-1 2nd Next Best: #2 Gung Ho 5-1 7th Exotics Use: #7 Scatman 20-1 10th Super Add: #8 Finnegans Wake 20-1 4th 11th: Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (DD, Super, Super Hi-5) Truly an ideal distaff side prequel to Saturday's feature as an outstanding set of fillies strive for the lilies. As much as pace has been discussed for Derby, this event features as many or more front end oriented runners, so anyone that can sit comfortably or close stoutly should get their chance. Favored pair inside (On Fire Baby/Grace Hall) are formidable but not invincible and as strong as Broadway's Alibi has been it's tough not respect her as she tries to stretch out 220 more yards. Jemima's Pearl couldn't have been more impressive matching strides with Bodemeister the other morning and feels like the right price to use prominently v. Summer Applause who has been AWOL a little during morning training hours.. Most Likely: #2 Grace Hall 5-2 3rd Best Value: #8 Jemima's Pearl 10-1 10th Next Best: #1 On Fire Baby 4-1 5th Exotics Use: #6 Broadway's Alibi 4-1 2nd Super/Hi-5: #10 And Why Not 15-1 9th <$150 P6 Play: 6: 4 7: 2-3-7 8: 3 9: 2-3-4 10: 2-10 11: 1-2-6-8 1x3x1x3x2x4 = 72 x $2 = $144 <$75 P4 Play: 8: 3 9: 2-3-4 10: 2-5-7-8-10-11-13-14 11: 1-2-6-8-10-11 1x3x8x6 = 144 x .50 = $72 <$50 Oaks-Derby Double: Oaks: 1-2-6-8 Derby: 3-4-5-10-15-18 4x6 = 24 x $2 = $48 <$100 Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3: Oaks: 1-2-6-8 Woodford: 2-5-6-10 Derby: 3-4-5-10-15-18 4x4x6 = $96 12th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super) Card starts with a notable pedigree in daughter of Azeri and ends with one via debuting Bellazzeria, a Henny Hughes bay out of nice MSW Boots n' Jackie making her a half to the memorable Supah Blitz (!) as well as through Bernie Flint's FTS Divine Dispatch, a Touch Gold daughter that is a full sister of Composure and Ready Set.. Most Likely: #6 Vuitton 2-1 2nd Next Best: #8 That's Me 5-2 3rd Best Value: #4 Divine Dispatch 12-1 8th Exotics Use: #3 Totally Tucker 5-1 WON ($11.40) Good luck! Steve
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All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 05-04-2012 at 10:59 PM. 
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#2
05-03-2012, 08:12 PM
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Thank you Steve for the hard work and dedication. I hope you knock it out of the park this weekend!
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#5
05-03-2012, 10:43 PM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#6
05-03-2012, 10:47 PM
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Will play the P3. Turallure should be tighter. Doubles Partner to be respected. Slim Shadey is worthwhile on a backup ticket. Brilliant Speed ran best career race this lawn. Data Link is a question mark at the 9f trip. If you're looking to be narrow here, heavy up on the first two. Good luck!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#7
05-03-2012, 10:48 PM
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Finished up with purpose on the lawn the other morning.. As always, BOL!
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#8
05-03-2012, 11:39 PM
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Really like Travel Advisory tomorrow. . .
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@BDiDonatoTDN
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#10
05-04-2012, 07:34 AM
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Good luck today, Steve. Should be a sizzling day at the downs!
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#11
05-04-2012, 09:15 AM
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Good luck this weekend. As always, all your efforts are appreciated.
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#12
05-04-2012, 09:36 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#13
05-04-2012, 09:58 AM
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-'m going with june cleaver and treasured up in my pick 5 ticket. Hoping rosario sends.
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#14
05-04-2012, 11:18 AM
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Quote:
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#15
05-04-2012, 11:21 AM
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__________________
@BDiDonatoTDN
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#16
05-04-2012, 01:33 PM
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6th: La Troienne (G2), F&M-4+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)
Suppose singling Plum Pretty the way to go in the P4/P6, but a couple small backups or P3's with Juanita and Afleeting Lady may be worthwhile just in case the fave misfires.. Most Likely: #4 Plum Pretty 4-5 Best Value: #5 Juanita 8-1 Next Best: #1 Afleeting Lady 8-1 Exotics Use: #2 St. John's River 5-1 And misfire she did...
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#17
05-04-2012, 01:41 PM
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#19
05-04-2012, 03:44 PM
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9: 4/7 10: 2/8/10 11: 3/6/9 10th: $ 6 Ex Box/Tri Box: 2/8/10 11th: $ 6 Ex Box/Tri Box: 3/6/9 11th: $ 1 Superfecta 6/ 3,4,9/ 3,4,9/ 3,4,9 $ 1 Superfecta 9/ 3,4,6/ 3,4,6/ 3,4,6 $ 1 Superfecta 3/ 4,6,9/ 4,6,9/ 4,6,9
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