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#1
05-03-2012, 09:32 PM
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Derby training and workout reports
Looking at training reports from those who've done work reports on these horses before prep races ... here are some of the positive and negative reports.
Positives: I could only find two horses who has been getting better reports coming into this race than in the Preps. Take Charge Indy - final work before the Florida Derby: "Finish: 1:01.57s - worked on the main shortly after Union Rags hit the track and there was no comparison, Indy didn't work bad just didn't have the stride or jump that Rags had. Finished in 25.3" From Mike Welch "has trained far better coming out of his Florida Derby victory than going in, his easy April 19 drill at Palm Meadows was far superior than his similarly timed final Florida Derby prep three weeks earlier." Gemologist: His final workout before his 3yo return race: "Finish: 49.77s - GEMOLOGIST outside of DISPOSABLEPLEASURE this morning for Todd. Worked in 49.,1 to the wire and out in 103.4. Gemo was second best while pleasure was going the easier of the two inside." His comments coming into the Derby: "looked incredible physically. He has grown and added weight and size. He looks like the real deal. He hs a nasty habit to idle when racing and in Derby it could hurt him. Pletcher has him looking incredible." Negatives: Dullahan - final work before Blue Grass: "Finish: 57.4s - Worked lights out and fast over his favorite track, solidifying his love affair with synthetic tracks. Went in 23, 34.2 and 57.2. Finished out in 111 flat. You know he loves it here. What a surprise?" Training reports coming into Derby: "He doesn't drop his head on the dirt as he does on the poly. He seems to rely on his hind end tucked under him on dirt. He finished in 25.1 and galloped out in 115.3. Looked average. Did not inspire." Creative Cause: Final work before wearing down Bodemeister in the San Felipe: "Finish: 46.4s - 23.20, 46.40 – Harrington has his big gray on his toes after this blowout. Best drill he has turned in this year." Final work before 2nd as beaten Santa Anita Derby favorite: "Again without the blinkers. Went real easy – 24.20, 48.40 – Harrington not as urgent in final prep this time." Did not recieve a strong report for his final Derby work like he did before his performance in the San Felipe and according to Mike Welsch "has not had the best week of the Derby contenders after coming up with a minor foot issue on the flight east. He does not seem real comfortable at a jog and like several others in this field has shown a tendency to get hot in the morning." Two other intersting ones: I'll Have Another's final work going into his Santa Anita Derby win was judged to be underwhelming: "Finish: 1:26s - 24.60, 48.00, 1:00.40 for the final five furlongs. Finished up under pushing pressure. Underwhelming in final prep. Taken off the bit on purpose?" His Derby works haven't been judged to be much better, however. * Liason was judged to easily outwork Blueskiesnrainbows before the Santa Anita Derby ... the latter almost won the race and Liason never factored: "Finish: 1:10.4s - Was much the best here over barnmate BLUESKIESNRAINBOWS. Stalked here for most of the drill and made a move down the stretch to catch the workmate and win the drill by lengths. Final furlong in 11.3 in hand." 
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#2
05-03-2012, 09:53 PM
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im sure dullihan and romans know whats going on..funny most of the rest of the year everyone laughs at paying attention to works..
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#3
05-03-2012, 09:54 PM
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I like to read them, listen to them and study the information as much as anyone -- it's apprciated coverage ... but it can also be very overrated. A horse like Union Rags looked sensational working a furlong in 10 1/5ths as a 2yo in a 2yo in training sale ... it was the 2nd fastest unblinkered work in the entire Fasig Tipton Florida sale (the nations clear-cut best 2yo sale) ... assuming such a talented and proven race horse is healthy ... why on earth would anyone be impressed that he was able to work 5 furlongs in 59.80 and look very good doing it? All that tells you is that he is indeed healthy and appearantly holding form right now...which, again is nice to know. Often you get very good reports for more than half the horses in the field -- and rarely is a short priced horse knocked. Hard Spun was for running off early in a fast workout, and finishing up slowly late ... one of the most negatively recieved workouts for a major contender to make the race in the last few years ... and he responded by sprinting away and almost wiring a good Derby field. He truthfully ran the best race in that Derby, as Borel completely rolled the dice with Street Sense and shot up the rail without a straw ever in his path somehow. Had that move backfired he probably would have been lucky if he ever got another mount in the race. Basically -- the way I judge this information -- it's impacted my handicapping of the race in the following way... * I would have preferred to toss out Take Charge Indy and Gemologist of all of my bets ... but because they clearly appear to be the two who observers have peaking coming into this race ... I'll include them in exotics. * Even though it's a negative -- I don't care that Dullahan trains MUCH better on synthetic than dirt. I've seen Dullahan attempt to sprint twice on dirt ... and he's a complete slowpoke who can't outrun a goat when he sprints on dirt. His route on dirt was much better. I'm still going to give him the benefit of the doubt. * Creative Cause all of a sudden has a little bit of a red-flag. He was judged to be in absolute peak form right before he edged Bodemeister in a race Bodemeister was a late fill-in for the sidelined Fed Biz. Clearly, CC isn't judged to be near peak right now. I'll still use him in exotics though.
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#4
05-03-2012, 09:58 PM
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agreed.. i do use them in my capping..but derby week its a moot point..they all look good..i havent heard one bad word on hrtv or tvg regarding works.. none.. gl in the derby drugs..
Last edited by hoovesupsideyourhead : 05-03-2012 at 10:11 PM.
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#5
05-03-2012, 10:28 PM
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#6
05-03-2012, 11:18 PM
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Hard Spun was training horrible according to the experts going into the Derby and Breeders Cup Classic. He ran 2nd in both races.
Nehro was a complete toss according to Welsch and Gary Young last year. (to be fair they both loved Animal Kingdom) Now this year, ,El Padrino is the toss off his works. The thing is, El Padrino has never been a good work horse. Yeah, I'd liked to see more than a 53 half the week of the Derby but, at 25-30:1 I'll take my chances.
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#7
05-04-2012, 12:29 AM
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I agree the focus on works can be a bit overrated, but everyone is using every possible angle to get a better understanding...so I take them all with just some degree of input to my full opinion.
I didn't need anyone to tell me that when an Asmussen horse worked a 5F bullet, then a well-regarded (by the clockers I've talked to) 6F work...and he deserves serious consideration. I've heard nothing bad about Daddy Nose Best, and in fact, the clockers who saw him in his works at CD before the more well-known clockers came into town...his 5F and 6F works at CD were absolutely wonderful. I liked the horse coming in, and their educated opinions have affirmed it...but all I needed to see was a rare Asmussen bullet followed by a solid maintenance drill...the 4F in 49.2 was overwhelmingly easy, and was much better than Sabercat's work... The expected pace, Gomez, draw, works, breeding, appearance, third-up, six weeks, etc...I'm game on him.
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#8
05-04-2012, 01:39 AM
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Hard to believe anyone would find fault with guys who correctly answered the biggest question of last year's race with a $43.80 winner.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#9
05-04-2012, 01:56 AM
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#10
05-04-2012, 06:43 AM
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Steve, you are taking my comments the wrong way.
I'm not trying to beat up Welsch& Young. I think they do a very good job. At something that can be hard to gauge. I did give them credit on AK. Mike Welsch was a big reason why I scored out on Barbaro and Street Sense. As far as my Hard Spun comments, I should've been more clear. I don't remember how Welsch had him rated but, the TVG guys didn't like his work at all going into the Breeders Cup in 2007. I'm not looking to bash your friends Steve, I'm just trying to point out that these works are not an exact science. Some horses are just bad work horses and lazy in the AM. It's just funny to me that most handicappers pay little to no attention to works for 95% of the time. Then come Derby and BC week, it's the end all-be all.
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#11
05-04-2012, 09:21 AM
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__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
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#12
05-04-2012, 09:23 AM
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Folks were raving about Hard Spun going into the '07 Derby. IIRC, his work was sparkling, but as kasept correctly mentioned, there were some concerns that he went a little fast. It turned out to not be the case.
__________________
The world's foremost expert on virtually everything on the Redskins 2010 season: "Im going to go out on a limb here. I say they make the playoffs."
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#13
05-04-2012, 09:45 AM
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#14
05-04-2012, 11:49 AM
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It was a bullet work -- but it was also the consensus most knocked work of any horse who was viewed so much as even a marginal contender in that race.
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