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#1
06-09-2012, 03:58 AM
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6/9: Belmont Park ($1,000,000 Guaranteed P6/P4)
While the injury and retirement of I'll Have Another cast a stunned pall over Belmont and the racing community Friday, the show goes on Saturday. Many racetrack idioms are attributed to Charlie Whittingham and he certainly was heard saying the harsh but ultimately accurate axiom 'one monkey don't the stop the circus'. Another Triple Crown winner will come, but it won't come this year. One thing this three week lead up to the 'Test of the Champion' managed to do was distinctly identify a plethora of media frauds that don't understand the game and are not interested in making any attempt to learn. They'll be plenty of time for a rehashing of the non-racing segment of the Triple Crown season story, but right now let's attack a fun 13 race/6 stake card Saturday at Belmont Park.
BELMONT PARK POST-SCRATCHES 1st: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD) Fun group to start it off. Wilkes' Forever Vow drops as does Pugh's Wet One. McPeek's Uptown Girl goes 2nd off the break and 1st Lasix in U.S., while favored I Dreamt I Was a must 2nd off her own extended absence.. Best Value: #6 Forever Vow 6-1 4th Next Best: #11 Wet One 4-1 3rd Exotics Use: #4 I Dreamt I Was 5-2 WON ($6.50) Super Add: #10 Uptown Girl 15-1 9th 2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD) Straightforward group. Would be happy to see Rich Migliore's group win with Love to Run.. Most Likely: #2 Wild Target 2-1 3rd Best Value: #4 Love to Run 5-1 WON ($8.90) Next Best: #3 Tiz Yankee 4-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Escape Artist 3-1 4th 3rd: NY-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD) Strange assembly with 7 at the $14k tag.. #8 Ruffino a SCR Most Likely: #9 Mineswept 7-2 WON ($6.70) Next Best: #7 Jeter 3-1 5th Best Value: #4 Live for Today 20-1 2nd Exotics Use: #6 Overextended 15-1 3rd $1 Exacta (9-4) Paid $41.25 $1 Trifecta (9-4-6) Paid $554.50 4th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD) Some OK looking maidens here but key question is what to do with favored Longwood Lake (3-1) who returns under Eddie Coletti's watch? Meanwhile, 2nd choice Current Design feels to me like one of the day's more likely winners.. Most Likely: #2 Current Design 7-2 3rd Best Value: #4 Define 20-1 WON ($27.40) Next Best: #7 Moonstock 4-1 8th Exotics Use: #8 Ur 12-1 5th 5th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD) Most Likely: #6 Carbon County 7-2 3rd Best Value: #1 Quiet Power 20-1 11th Next Best: #5 In My Eyes 4-1 8th Exotics Use: #10 Adirondack Dancer 2-1 4th <$75 P4 Play: 2: 2-3-4-6 3: 3-4-5-6-7-9 4: 2-4 5: 1-5-6 4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 6th: Easy Goer, 3yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD) $1,000,000 Guaranteed P6 starts here.. At first, there was uncertainty as to this event filling. It not only filled, it's terrific. Teeth of the Dog is OK, but you hardly want him at 2-1. Plenty of other price options including Romancing the Gold who I thought was on his way to nice things and played in the Illinois Derby.. Best Value: #2 Romancing the Gold 12-1 6th Next Best: #5 Brimstone Island 5-1 7th Exotics Use: #6 Teeth of the Dog 2-1 WON ($6.10) Super Add: #9 Inflation Target 4-1 5th 7th: 34th True North (G2), 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD) Sprint Division seems to be heating as we get into summer. A case can be made for everyone signed on here with all having races in their PP's or form that could justify your confidence. While I'm not big on noting jockey decisions, Rosario siding with Pacific Ocean over Smiling Tiger raises an eyebrow.. Most Likely: #7 Caixa Electronica 4-1 WON ($9.80) Best Value: #1 Pacific Ocean 5-1 6th Next Best: #6 Giant Ryan 3-1 8th Exotics Use: #8 Justin Phillip 10-1 2nd 8th: 19th Just a Game (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD) Most Likely: #1 Tapitsfly 3-1 WON ($8.40) Next Best: #5 Hungry Island 5-2 3rd Exotics Use: #4 Winter Memories 6-5 2nd Super Add: #6 Dancinginherdreams 12-1 7th 9th: 28th Woody Stephens (G2), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD) The 3yo version of the True North and every bit as compelling. Trinniberg's Calder bullets indicate that the Derby experience took nothing away from him. The Chick Lang runners (Il Vilano/Laurie's Rocket) could provide great value over the Derby Trial refugees (Hierro/Bourbon Courage). Likewise, there's value in the trio exiting the 5/12 Belmont ALW (Hardened Wildcat/Brian/Currency Swap). Isn't He Clever gets back to one turning in the new barn (Asmussen) and has had plenty of time. Power World is going to slip through the cracks in the wagering and may float well above the 8-1 ML. Unbelievable betting affair.. Most Likely: #6 Trinniberg 7-2 WON ($7.70) Best Value: #10 Laurie's Rocket 20-1 9th Next Best: #2 Hardened Wildcat 12-1 4th Exotics Use: #7 Power World 8-1 8th .10 SUPER: Key 6 first/second with 1-2-7-8-10 (1x5x4x3 + 5x1x4x3 = 120 x .10 = $12.00) 10th: 111th Manhattan H. (G1), 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD) Not the most august field in the history of this great race, but every G1 horse ever had to win their first G1 at some point. Tough to argue with Shug's year in turf tests so far this year and Boisterous loves this lawn, but there isn't a lot separating this group. As highlighted by Nick Tammaro on ATR Friday, note the dearth of speed in here. Both Omayad, who Drysdale would not bring without purpose, and Papaw Bodie, who reunites with Napravnik and owns a win over the strip, could take control and go a long way.. Most Likely: #2 Boisterous 7-2 3rd Best Value: #1 Omayad 12-1 7th Next Best: #5 Papaw Bodie 8-1 2nd Exotics Use: #4 Desert Blanc 6-1 WON ($14.80) 11th: 144th Belmont Stakes (G1), 3yo, 12f (P3, DD) With I'll Have Another absent, the pressure cooker scenario of this race evaporates and seemingly the prospects for a chaotic result. You would think that everyone involved will now focus on the task at hand as opposed to concentrating on the erstwhile favorite and what he was doing. That should trigger more aggressive riding and an honest pace that gives every running style their chance to succeed. Dullahan's sharp work adds a positive and versatile dimension to his arsenal and he could not have looked better tuning up for this spot. He inherits the favorites role and is the horse to beat. Union Rags gets his opportunity to quash naysayers opinion of him and feels like the horse that will run the style of race envisioned for I'll Have Another. Though his pedigree says yes, Paynter does not look like a stayer physically and will be tested by the likes of Unstoppable U and My Adonis. Street Life is a fashionable tab coming in but still feels like a 'picks up pieces' type. Atigun and Optimizer look like they have puncher's chances and are not impossible as exotic boosters. 50-1 Ravelo's Boy is working sharp at Calder and by far the best of the bombers to use at the bottom of your super.. Most Likely:#5 Dullahan 9-5 7th Next Best: #3 Union Rags 6-1 WON ($7.50) Exotics Use: #1 Street Life 12-1 4th Super Add: #6 Ravelo's Boy 50-1 9th <$150 P6 Play: 6: 2-5-6 7: 1-7 8: 1-5 9: 6 10: 1-2-3-4-5-6 11: 5 3x2x2x1x6x1 = 72 x $2 = $144 $2 Pick 6 (6/7/1/6/4/3) Paid $212.00 (5OF6) <$75 P4 Play: 8: 1-4-5 9: 2-6-7-10 10: 1-2-3-4-5-6 11: 3-5 3x4x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 4 (1/6/4/3) Paid $320.75 12th: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (DD) Deerslayer isn't that special and should have plenty of front end company. Looking elsewhere.. Most Likely: #9 Count Catamount 7-2 3rd Next Best: #3 Pegasus Tommy D. 5-1 9th Exotics Use: #1 Deerslayer 5-2 WON ($5.20) Super Add: #12 Pin 12-1 7th 13th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T Yeesh. Any number of these can win here with many having exchanged plenty of blows.. Best Value: #13 Barnards Galaxy 30-1 9th Next Best: #2 Frisky Cat 8-1 6th Exotics Use: #12 Gossip Column 7-2 WON ($9.90) Super Add: #9 Sneaky Kitten 3-1 2nd <$75 P4 Play: 10: 1-2-3-4-5-6 11: 3-5-9 12: 3-9 13: 2-9-12-13 6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 Good luck! Steve
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans Last edited by Kasept : 06-09-2012 at 10:05 PM. 
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#2
06-09-2012, 09:05 AM
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__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#9
06-09-2012, 05:20 PM
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Go out and get it steve, heres hoping for a hot pace for you...
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Inveniemus viam aut faciemus
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#12
06-09-2012, 06:50 PM
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Great cappin today, Steve. Congratulations
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#15
06-09-2012, 10:11 PM
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Tough luck on the P6. Singling Trinniberg was a ballsy move and I thought you were home free when he won. Shows it is almost as hard to hit a P6 as it is to win the TC. At least you had the conso and P4 as a backup. Out of interest when you are alive like that to a substantial sum do you spend $ covering or just let it ride? Anyway great job capping today.
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#17
06-09-2012, 10:39 PM
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Guys.. Thanks a lot for the well wishes during the day and nods after. It was a super day at Belmont on every front. Hope everyone got something out of the opinions that proved out and did well. Have some thoughts on the day in the Paddock. Thought it was a special afternoon and expect you enjoyed it too.
__________________
All ambitions are lawful except those which climb upward on the miseries or credulities of mankind. ~ Joseph Conrad A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
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#18
06-09-2012, 11:00 PM
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Steve, fantastic run once again. I nominate you for den leader. There has to be an eclipse award for you in the near future. I would have won a ton of money today only with exchange wagering. This feels like a lost weekend for me, but a thousand thanks to you. I'll be back for Saratoga.
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